Bellhorn04
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Everything posted by Bellhorn04
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I'm really not concerned about it. If we do fall off the cliff after 3 years, so be it. We'll just have to build from the bottom up again. We just went through back-to-back last place finishes and we survived.
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What exactly is it all of us are in agreement on?
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But is it prudent to count on one coming out of nowhere? Theo obviously went after proven guys in Chapman and now Davis and was willing to pay fairly heavily in talent and money. Personally I think you want to have a couple of guys who are proven. You can take the 'throw stuff against the wall' approach with the rest.
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But a relatively proven lights-out guy like Chapman, Jansen or Miller is a nice thing to have, especially in the postseason. The Cubs and the Guardians paid a lot in prospects for Chapman and Miller, and the investments paid off.
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moon, I e-mailed Alex Speier about this and here is his reply, which is linked to a column he wrote a few years ago about a similar calculation involving Jon Lester's AAV when he was with the Sox. There's always a catch! This explains the formula in play: http://fullcount.weei.com/sports/boston/baseball/red-sox/2013/11/08/creative-luxury-tax-accounting-201-jon-lesters-average-annual-value-re-explained
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Theo is a clever little devil. I wouldn't be surprised if Buchholz ends up in a Cubs uniform at some point too.
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I agree with you, the possibility of it happening exists.
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I'm pretty sure Speier gets his numbers from the right sources. He knows how to divide 5 into 32.5. Maybe there were some benefits included in Sale's contract that had to be included in the AAV. Speier actually shows Sale's AAV at $6,769,562.50 - he must have got the number from his 'MLB sources' that he references. You don't just make up a number like that.
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Have to give the Yankees credit though, they've been reloading their farm system and staying away from big signings, other than this one.
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Now Theo's got Lester, Lackey and Koji - all our studs from the 2013 playoff run.
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I think he's right there too, because there's a $1 million buyout on the 2018 option, which is guaranteed money, so it has to be factored into the AAV.
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Keep in mind that Henry isn't a young man any more. By the time the 2017 season is over he'll be 68 years old.
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I can't see it. I think Hanley will DH against RH starters and play some 1B against LH starters with Young DH'ing against LH starters.
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He'll not only cost a first round pick, but there will be 50% luxury tax on whatever his salary is.
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Presumably the Red Sox do want something in return for Buch, so you have to factor that in along with his salary.
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Thanks Ben on that one.
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His figures are right, he just did it differently. The difference between his numbers and yours is in the salary costs for minor league players on the 40 man but not on the 26 man. He shows the cost of the 14 minor leaguers as only 1.2 million to start the year. But then he has some other calculations where he factors in the cost of call-ups. He goes on to project that we will go over the threshold with the call-ups etc.
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I think he got it right. Take a closer look.
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It's debatable about the Verlander extension being a bad deal for the Tigers. They may end up getting full value for that.
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2016-2017 Offseason Trade Speculation Thread
Bellhorn04 replied to Dojji's topic in Boston Red Sox Talk
I can't see them getting very much for Clay. It would be primarily a salary dump. -
2016-2017 Offseason Trade Speculation Thread
Bellhorn04 replied to Dojji's topic in Boston Red Sox Talk
Of course they wouldn't. It's not like they've magically transformed into a contender since July LOL -
They only made it to the playoffs 5 times so 4 out of 5 times to the ALCS is 80%.
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We'll see if DD does better than Theo. Theo did OK in spite of the 'mess'.
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They should get paid. Just consider this for a moment though. This year David Price got paid about 135,000 per inning (31 million 230 innings). If Chapman pitches 70 innings this tear he'll be making about 246,000 per inning (17.2 million).
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I liked it.
