Bellhorn04
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Everything posted by Bellhorn04
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Wrong thread?
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6 hits in a row on Opening Day LOL Like I say you can't predict anything in this game.
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Breaking the record they set last year, I assume.
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Take heart, man. Statistical analysis is just a sideshow to entertain us between games. The games are the real show. And as much as the stats tell us about averages, they are virtually useless in predicting what will happen in actual games. Weird stuff happened in all 3 games yesterday. Who saw Tanaka getting shelled? The human element is very much a part of it.
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2007...the pitcher's name was Chase Wright. The Yanks seem to have a thing for guys named Chase...with Chase Headley and Chase Shreve on the current team...sorry, that's actually *Chasen* Shreve.
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OK, well, getting back to your example, 5 consecutive hits doesn't happen very often, and when it does happen, it's usually because of the opposing pitcher or pitchers having commend issues and leaving a lot of pitches in the middle of the plate.
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It's not a perfect comparison. But probabilities and averages are unavoidable facts in baseball. You can start out with the obvious one that even the best hitters will not hit much higher than .300 over a season. They'll have hot streaks and cold streaks but at the end of it all they'll have an average somewhere around .300.
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Tanaka pitched well last year and he pitched well this spring. AFAIK there are no health concerns. So in all likelihood this was just a bad day and he bounces back strong. All that said, today's game was fun.
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But if a & m is all it takes for a team to stage a big rally... Why doesn't that team do it every game?
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The 'something else' might also have a lot to do with the opposing pitching...a starter who's gassed or who just doesn't have it that day, a middle reliever with a 5 ERA etc....there are a lot of variables to be considered.
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My most significant firsthand experiences with 'clutch' and 'choke' come from playing touch football for many years. My claim to fame was that I had 'good hands'. I caught the ball most of the time and I sometimes made difficult catches. On the other hand, sometimes I dropped balls that were right in my hands. Anyone who's ever played receiver in football knows how good it feels to make a tough catch and how agonizing it is to drop a ball. When you drop one you go through this process of trying to figure out how the hell that could possibly happen. Some games you just feel good...you feel strong, your mind feels sharp, you're confident...good things happen. Some games you feel like crap mentally and physically...you're 'fighting the ball', your hands don't feel quite right, when the ball is coming your way you have fears you're going to drop it.
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Gee, I wonder why LOL. I like to think I'm capable of seeing both sides of an issue.
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Rallies happen and no doubt there is adrenaline and motivation involved. But the question is why did the team stage a big rally in that game, and then were unable to do the same thing the next game and the game after that? Maybe the answer is that in the first game they were facing a pitcher or pitchers who weren't very sharp. This is the 'repeatibility' issue that is a big part of why the researchers find no evidence of clutch.
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For all the Marco Hernandez fans - he was tied for second in AB's on the team this spring. That means they like him a lot and were giving him a long look. I think you'll be seeing plenty of him this season, assuming he keeps producing when his chance comes.
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Papelbon. Not many homegrown closers in the Sox illustrious history, that's for sure...
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Good one moon!
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The last one was in 2009. Don't hold your breath waiting for the next one. It happened exactly once between 1927 and 1992.
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Interestingly, 1986 was also the last time Halley's Comet was visible from Earth.
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This kind of bonnethead:
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There is a third option as made painfully clear in this thread. A lot of people think clutch (or non-choking) exists, but nobody has produced an acceptable definition and nobody knows how to prove or disprove it.
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Sorry, kind of an inside joke I guess. On BDC there was a poster who used the word bonnethead to describe a Pollyanna who saw everything with rose-colored glasses.
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Complete game shutout - an increasingly rare but still achievable feat.
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Anyone who predicts triple digit wins is a bonnethead.
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Yes, I would think composure is a bigger component of performance under pressure than adrenaline...
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Fatigue - one more factor that can be concealed by our old friend Randomness.
