Bellhorn04
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Everything posted by Bellhorn04
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That's true. But even if you do get there a bunch of times the sample size will still never get big enough. How much more of an exercise in futility can you get LOL
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Nice to see Workman's name in some box scores again.
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I don't think Northern Star meant you specifically but the generalized "you" meaning anyone.
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It does seem to make sense. And it seems to give you the best chance of scoring runs in the first inning and getting a lead. OTOH I don't doubt that Kimmi's research findings are accurate.
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I was surprised when Kimmi said research showed that the 3 spot is not a great place for your best hitter. Apparently it has to do with the fact the 3 hitter comes up with 2 outs and no one on more than any other position. I would assume a hefty chunk of those instances occur in the first inning.
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Move one little word and you're right: Clutch has not been proven statistically to exist.
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Of all the hits in Red Sox history, that one by Mueller may have been the biggest.
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Some of the terms you hear when a player is going through a slump: He's 'pressing'. He's 'trying to do too much'. He's 'falling into bad habits'. All of which confirms the idea that when a hitter has been failing it gets in their head and messes them up. When I think of guys like Price and Swisher and their postseason failures I don't really think of them 'choking', but I do think of them having 'psychological baggage' that affects them. And even if the guy had a great regular season and finished strongly, when the postseason starts I suspect their past postseason results are very much in their heads.
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The ultimate postseason flop may have been Nick Swisher. Career regular season 249/351/447 OPS 799 Career postseason 185 PA's 165/277/297 OPS 575
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What really sticks out in Bagwell's postseason numbers is the lack of extra-base hits. In 129 PA's and 106 AB's, only 2 HR and 4 2B and an SLG of .321. Doesn't prove anything, but it's hard to deny that the numbers are remarkably bad for a power hitter of his stature.
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Oh, I remember it. I remember just about everything about that game. Dent's home run would have been the 'game winning RBI', under the rules that were used for that short-lived stat from 1980 to 1988. It was the same basic principle used to determine the winning pitcher, that is, the RBI that gave the winning team a lead that they didn't lose.
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It is a pretty sweet feeling.
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That's simple. A proper measurement of clutch would only consider the situation at the time of the at-bat, not what happened afterward. It wouldn't be based on fan perceptions.
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I remember the 2008 hits as well. The clutch hits get lost a bit when the team loses the series, like Hendu's home run in the 1986 World Series.
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I think the grand slam was a huge clutch hit regardless of the inning or the final score. It was an elimination game.
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I totally agree with that. Success is relative.
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Let's be clear though: that doesn't apply to succeeding as a baseball hitter, which is what a lot of this debate about. It doesn't matter if you have nerves of steel and ice water in your veins. You're still going to fail more than succeed.
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But there are guys like Ortiz and Schilling who have had multiple extraordinary postseason performances.
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I'm quite sure, actually, that a definition of clutch could be produced that would be reasonably satisfactory to everyone. We all have a general knowledge of what it means. Putting it into specific terms would take the kind of work it takes for a government to put something new in the tax code.
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That's a good point as well. Some postseason at-bats are in garbage time and that needs to be taken into consideration.
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Well, that's a good point...now you're providing a plausible reason for why Bagwell's postseason numbers may have been depressed. Much better than randomness, at any rate.
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Choking is definitely no illusion and not a product of bad luck. If one accepts the idea that 'clutch' is actually an absence of choking, then 'clutch', or 'non-choking' if preferred, has to be acknowledged as real.
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And according to Sherman of the NY Post, Betances is unhappy with how the Yankees have dealt with him the last 2 years. FWIW
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The execution of the pitch is the most important thing, no question. But I think we can all agree that the selection of the type and location of pitch and the sequencing of the pitches is pretty damn important too.
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That's just my simplistic reference point. I figure an average postseason at-bat is quite a bit higher leverage than an average regular season at-bat, because almost every postseason game can determine whether the team moves on or goes home. Anybody can go to B-R and see those two sets of numbers side by side. The difference for Bagwell is huge, that's why I'm picking on him. A more sophisticated measurement of high-leverage at-bats is obviously possible, but it's not readily available for the average fan.
