Bellhorn04
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Everything posted by Bellhorn04
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Good, we can shelve this discussion for the next decade.
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Now that you mention it, the Sox are 22-9 in Sale starts (71%) and 67-55 in non-Sale starts (55%).
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This makes perfect sense, really. A certain amount of stress is a good thing. You often hear about athletes having nerves or 'butterflies' before competition as a natural consequence of their systems getting ready to perform.
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Countdown to the Playoffs - 2017 Edition
Bellhorn04 replied to Slasher9's topic in Boston Red Sox Talk
I agree with mvp on this one. The extra wild card opens it up for more teams with mediocre regular seasons. 96 wins is much harder to achieve than 85. You're right that in a 5 game series the 85 can take down the 96, but that doesn't mean they should get the chance. -
A very unrealistic proposal, since Marlins wouldn't put in money like that. But I wouldn't do it anyway, because Sale is too valuable as an underpaid ace for 2 more years. Also Stanton has that opt-out after 2020.
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Well, he did look pretty good Wednesday night, so it's not all doom and gloom.
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Yeah, it's funny, but you're the same one who says Price's bad playoff numbers are the product of randomness and 'tiny sample sizes spread out over a period of years'!
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Nobody knows if extra rest does any good anyway. In 2015 the Jays tried that with Slash's favorite pitcher Price. Didn't work, and there was plenty of second-guessing about whether he was rusty.
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You and moon both started out clearly saying you wouldn't have pitched him at all and you would have used a bunch of relief pitchers instead. That's quite a bit different from having Sale start and pulling him after we had a decent lead. Or maybe you think it isn't.
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You ALWAYS have to be careful with moon's data.
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So now there are two separate sets of goalposts on the field. The original argument was whether Sale should have started the game. But now we seem to be hearing more of the argument that it was okay for him to start, but not to throw that many pitches.
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Beni's WAR is 2.5. Pretty good for a rook. Our LF WAR is dragged down by Young and whoever else was out there this year.
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Even assuming that the 91.8% is actually a real number worth considering, which it isn't, that's still about a 1 in 12 chance of disaster.
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devildavid is a philosopher. He has no answers, only questions.
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Terrible arguments moon, and you should know it. I assume you're talking about teams that had a playoff spot clinched. But the new wild card system only came into effect for the 2012 season. The new wild card system was specifically designed to place a big premium on winning the division vs. being one of the wild card teams. That's the whole point here. Not many teams have even been in our particular situation.
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You ask tough question, man. It's possible that Sale might have gotten an emotional boost from both pitching 8 innings and reaching the milestone.
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I agree with you, I think there was probably some ongoing discussions between the two.
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Now, who's going to argue with that list? I also think Sale and Farrell probably had some good discussion about all this.
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Of course we have fire and desire. Couldn't have won all these marathon extra-inning games without it.
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I mean, 6 of our last 10 games are going to be started by Porcello, E-Rod, and Fister. I don't mean to be a doomsayer but those guys haven't exactly been money in the bank every time out. Nor has our offense. We've been winning a lot of tight games lately, coming from behind...and that's great, but it also suggests we might be due to lose a few like that.
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'Somehow' blowing a 3 game lead - good one. If you back through our schedule this year I'm pretty sure you'll find numerous instances of us losing 3 games or gaining 3 games over a stretch of 10 games or less.
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How about if an industrial company knocked on your door and said 'Hey, mind if we store these toxic chemicals in your basement for a few days? There's only a 10% chance they'll blow up your house.'
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I honestly have no idea what you're trying to say.
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I can't believe how comforting you find those little probability calculations. 2011 wasn't that long ago.
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I agree it's a longshot they win out, but they are on a roll. And it's completely out of our hands.
