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Bellhorn04

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Everything posted by Bellhorn04

  1. Bellhorn04
    We're picking over fine points. I'm not saying Toronto has made a big leap. To me it's pretty grim news to see projections that the Red Sox, rather than ascending in the East, might actually have a good chance of returning to the basement. Basically the feeling out there, just about unanimously, is that the Sox have stayed mediocre. Which is crazy, with the payroll room they have. We've got teams spending $300 million and the Sox are treating the first tax line as a line made of electrified barbed wire.
  2. Bellhorn04
    What I think is that the projections bake in all of this and more, and the 2025 projections are not that great for our position players, so we're trying to find a way around the projections. "That can't be right!" stuff.
  3. Bellhorn04
    Yes, in a perfect world Garrett will revisit 2021. I certainly like that he acknowledged he's a bullpen guy from here on out.
  4. Bellhorn04
    Here's a composite projection based on 4 different sources. I can't attest to the accuracy of its math. https://www.rotochamp.com/baseball/ProjectedStandings.aspx Yankees 91 Jays 87 Rays 86 Orioles 86 Red Sox 82
  5. Bellhorn04
    But you also have outliers and regression to the mean, that's why Duran is projected to be not as good in 2025 as he was in 2024, which is in itself a significant reason why our projections don't look as good as some think they should be.
  6. Bellhorn04
    Craig said he wanted to balance the lineup. He actually came right out and said that. “Given that most of the heavy lifting in the rotation is largely done, I think we'll shift our focus to thinking about how to balance out the lineup,” Breslow said Monday. “We've talked about some right-handed bat helping to equalize the significant number of left-handed hitters that we have.Dec 30, 2024 Maybe he's not that much different from Sam when it comes down to it. Or maybe he says something like that and then the finance committee tells him differently.
  7. Bellhorn04
    Do you have more favorable alternative data?
  8. Bellhorn04
    Talent-wise perhaps, health-wise I'd have to go with Jansen. Hendriks was expected to come back around August last year but couldn't. That's not especially encouraging.
  9. Bellhorn04
    Law of averages?
  10. Bellhorn04
    That's all fair. I just think being a little better than last year represents another punt by the cheapskates. It's like the real plan is "keep punting, keep selling hope to the dummies, keep turning a big profit."
  11. Bellhorn04
    Their BS is getting more blatant all the time. They won 81 last year and it looks like they've maybe added 4 wins, based on all the objective data out there. To me they obviously haven't done enough to indicate they're realistically shooting for 90. If 75% of things go right they might sniff 90. If 75% of things go wrong they're looking at 80.
  12. Bellhorn04
    The Jays were much better than us in 2022 and 2023. Of course the Jays aren't the worry. The fact that the Sox projections are this bad is the worry.
  13. Bellhorn04
    The real point to me is that we're watching the Jays make some actual moves to get better while we haven't done anything of note since signing Buehler and trading for Narvaez. In my bitterness toward our front office I'm enjoying the fact that the Jays have passed us in the projections. We're Number Nine (in the AL)!
  14. Bellhorn04
    You know me, I'm drinking my morning coffee and all fired up. But I really I am shocked they haven't added a single bat, when O'Neill was our third best hitter last year. I think it's ridiculous. As you have said a number of times, they're putting it on the kids.
  15. Bellhorn04
    EVEN IF IT MEANS PAYING CBT WE'RE AIMING AT 90-95 WINS - Sam Kennedy
  16. Bellhorn04
    Copying harmony's post from another thread: With Max Scherzer reportedly signing with Toronto, the Blue Jays have slipped past the Red Sox in FanGraphs' projected 2025 WAR: https://www.fangraphs.com/depthcharts.aspx?position=ALL&teamid=14 The Red Sox rank ninth in the American League in projected 2025 WAR (and a close last in the AL East). That's what the objective data is saying.
  17. Bellhorn04
    Yikes, you guys are getting brainwashed by Sam! 🙃
  18. Bellhorn04
    OK, but to me it feels like keeping the payroll down is still Job One.
  19. Bellhorn04
    His agent must have been reading Hugh's posts here: "Pivetta is gonna get PAID!" 😉
  20. Bellhorn04
    Well, call me crazy, but I'm taking Tyler O'Neill to do better than his replacement Jack Diddlesquat this year.
  21. Bellhorn04
    Personally I think Cora is very good at handling things like this. He'll let Abreu get some AB's against lefties and see how it goes.
  22. Bellhorn04
    Even with the pitching moves, you can't help noticing that all of them are short term and relatively low dollars (including Buehler), unless they sign Crochet to an extension, which is obviously critical.
  23. Bellhorn04
    There's reason to be optimistic about the pitching. Brez has focused a lot of effort there. Obviously I've become increasingly disturbed that he hasn't focused any effort on the offense or the fielding.
  24. Bellhorn04
    My thoughts exactly, except I don't have very much hope about it at this point.
  25. Bellhorn04
    I didn't mean to make this all about O'Neill. I wasn't upset that O'Neill left. But when you look at the numbers, we were horrible against LH pitching last year and that was a big problem. And they subtract O'Neill who was great against LH pitching. And then THEY DO NOTHING ELSE ABOUT OFFENSE. That's the problem. They're going cheap and hoping on rookies and injury returns. It's criminal negligence. And the projections Harmony is posting for our position players and the team overall reflect the negligence.
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