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Napoli just don't give a f***

You're a lot more likely to be forced into taking a walk if you're a walking HR waiting to happen. Sosa didn't transform his approach, he was forced to take a walk because pitchers shat their pants when he was at the plate (with notable exceptions) after he started juicing. I don't think he's a good example.

We are talking about different things. You're talking about natural ability progression. I'm talking about the current and projected ability levels of near-finished products. You can't compare a college freshman (unless it's a generational talent type of guy) to a near-ready prospect as far as scouting accuracy goes. I've seen guys throwing 92 when they're 16 being projected to hit triple digits who end up topping out at that same velocity, and guys who throw 88 at 17, and reach the show bringing upper-level heat. What i'm trying to say here is that, when it comes to scouting, talent level for a raw kid and a battle-tested, near-MLB level prospect is nowhere close in terms of accuracy level. This is why the 20-80 scale is usually so accurate.

The main difference is the "projectable" part. When scouts speak of it, they talk about "present" power and a projectable power "ceiling". Youkilis is a guy who confounded scouts because his body type lent itself to producing more power and he eventually grew into his projections. But the truth is, that if it isn't there, it just isn't. Look at guys like Daric Barton, who looks like he should have some big power numbers, but they just can't generate enough force to hit for power consistently. The difference between power and plate discipline, although they are both tools , is that one is purely physical. Power, like speed, cannot be taught. If you want an example of a guy whose approach refined to the point where he went from a hacker to one of the league-leaders in OBP, P/PA and walks, look no further than Edwin Encarnacion. There are other examples of guys improving their approach like this. I want you, however, to find me an example of a guy whose power ceiling was projected to be below average and ended up hitting 30+ homers without some "help". For the record, Ellsbury is not an example of this, since he was always projected to put up big power numbers, but his approach never allowed it until 2011, and the multiple injuries have stunted him since.

It's the exception, not the norm. And i'd call it "refining" instead of improving. You don't "improve" average power into light-power tower like WMB has. You can, however, improve a mediocre approach to achieve much better results, which guys like Johnny Damon managed over time.

You followed the help chart before making this post. Well done.

Plate discipline is not born, it's made. It's an approach taught to you by coaches since a very young age. Check out the guys with the least P/PA the last ten years and you'll notice most of them are Latin American guys. That's because they're taught that you don't "walk off the island, you hit off the island". Take a young Latin guy though (Pujols, Pena) put them in the American system from a young age, and well, you don't get a hacker. I'd like to see this statistical evidence you speak of, because i've seen no such thing.

I only ignore you when you're being a pretentious prick. This is one of those instances. You don't know better than talent evaluators. An approach can be taught over time. Talent can't.

You're misinterpreting what "ceiling" means on a prospect. WMB has better tools and is a better athlete than Cecchini. There's not even an argument about it. The problem is that "tools" doesn't always translate into MLB production.

Indeed.

The poster child for poor reasoning: Justifying the unfairness and inefficiency of the system by saying that "every team gets around the same number of calls wrong". That is preposterous. The system should be fixed, period. And for the record, the "baseball establishment" is now open to expanding replay because of the opposite of the argument navafan is making. It's 2013. Get with the times.

Yeah but he got two guaranteed years at good money instead of a pillow contract.

I just don't understand how you can stand there and say "you know what? f*** implementing a process to help remove the arbitrary and unfair nature of the game". That's like hitting logic in the face with a shovel. What did logic ever do to you? And the cherry on top of this crazy pie is that MLB, and its "set on their ways, stubborn ass owners and officials" are actually doing this in response to fan backlash from missed calls and s***** umpiring. So basically what Navafan is saying here is that what fans are actively clamoring for is going to negatively impact the popularity of the game. That's like saying that if half the world asks Domino's Pizza to start selling bacon-flavored crusts through massive petitions, that selling the crust would make people buy less pizza. You're killing me here.

And it works too. Koji was not a "LRHR" guy, but Tampa and Oakland have constructed elite bullpens year after year by patching together almost entire units with LRHR guys, and the rest with internal options and failed starters. This being the core of the argument against paying big money for relief pitching. @sk7326

Probably not, since he was an established reliever coming off a good season (albeit somewhat low on IP) before signing him. A low-risk, high reward guy (which is technically an incorrect term, since the possibility of flopping makes it mid-risk at least) is a guy coming off injury, a guy who's an inconsistent asset, or who's coming from another league who you sign on the cheap expecting above-average production. The "low risk" part comes from the modest economic investment. If they don't pan out, you can just cut 'em without incurring massive losses.

Hideki Okajima.

Oh right, i remember Sadaharu Oh being mentioned in the article.

Kevin Millar, Mark Bellhorn, Bronson Arroyo, Bill Mueller, Big Papi. All guys dubbed with the LRHR title that worked out beautifully.

Yeah he broke the all-time single-season home run record in an Asian league. Can't remember which country though.

Cashner gave up a hit to Jose Tabata. "The Next Manny Ramirez" according to Jacko.

Even though the A's shouldn't particularly intimidate anyone mind you. They're good, but they are in large part a product of their division.

Thunder, remember that guide i posted for you? Now is a good time to use it.

Because neither Carp nor Nava can hit lefties, and Nava and Gomes are awful at 1B. Napoli has been just "slightly above average" this season, but the certainty of his numbers combined with a palatable price make him a very solid option.

The problem is that even "might" is stretching it. The guy has one elite tool, and is above average in all of the others except speed. The only thing holding him back is plate discipline, since his contact rates are amazing, especially when you consider how often he swings at pitches way out of the zone.

Funny you say that, since he has mostly been exactly that against the Yankees this year. XBH, walk or K.