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Everything posted by User Name

  1. There's that word again, the "P" word, potential. That's a word is greatly associate with Murphy's Law. I'm cautiously optimistic about this team though. And I'm specially excited to see the OF play this year.
  2. Owens is not a soft tosser. He's not "all about control", he has control problems, which is a whole different animal.
  3. Agree to disagree on this one.
  4. Not the rest of the planet though.
  5. Betts might have the better arm, but JBJ might just be the defensive OF in all of baseball. He should play CF.
  6. Fangraphs does that. They are called fan projections. They do so for both players and teams.
  7. Don't you know that anything that doesn't fit the negative narrative is an excuse?
  8. I'm more inclined to think they improve 11 games from their actual W-L record, placing them right around, but below, 90 wins. To reach that 92 win projection, they need another SP.
  9. I disagree. Pitch selection is, for the most part, prepared and handled by the coaching staff. No amount of "big boy-ism" lets you tell your bosses you won't do as they say.
  10. He's a sinkerballer. With the amount of contact they alllow, they're usually on the "one hit away to let the game get out of control" end of the spectrum. Trying to up his strikeouts is what screwed him in the first place. Let him pitch, and let the D work behind him.
  11. I don't understand a700's insistence on taking the fun out of everything. I like to look at projections because I like to see/analyze probably scenarios of how the season may play out. I do it when I have some free time, because it's fun. It's not an integral part of my existence, just something to check out and say "Yeah, I agree with that" or "How does that make sense? How did they reach that conclusion?". Nothing more.
  12. How would you know what's bogus and what isn't if you're just making it up as you go along? His velocity, command and control were fine. He was very unlucky, and he was too predictable with the fastballs. If you look at his pitching charts, he was back to the same pitch selection during his final handful of starts with markedly different results. Why would I believe what you're spitballing when I can easily use the data (and what I saw from his last few starts) to come to an way more informed conclusion?
  13. This is why looking at stats is better than making s*** up. His fastball velocity was actually higher than in 2014, but he threw a lot more of them. His strike% was right around career averages, while his overall contact% went down. They f***ed with his pitch selection and sequencing, everything else was right around career averages.
  14. No. He altered his pitch selection and sequencing to feature significantly more fastballs but less change-ups and breaking balls. That resulted in an increase in his K%, but the resulting increase in HR% was disastrous, specially against LHH
  15. How is that bias? He's absolutely correct in his criticism.
  16. It's not a myth, the stats back it up. Whether or not you want to believe them is a whole other matter.
  17. Velocity/movement/command were not a problem for the 2015 version of Porcello. Pitch selection was, at least for the first half.
  18. 88 wins is exactly what Cameron is actually projecting.
  19. They're saying Ramirez' impact in the overall projections could be negative fifteen runs. That is substantial. I like Hanley's ability to rebound offensively, but if his D is so bad that then what his bat could bring to the table might not be enough to warrant an extended look at this experiment.
  20. On another note away from from Sandoval: Here is a very interesting analysis on the Steamer projections for the 2016 Red Sox from Dave Cameron: http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/investigating-steamers-optimism-for-the-red-sox/#more-208419
  21. Here is a study done by fangraphs on heavy vs. average players. The data absolutely backs up my point. We can't just disregard the data when it does not suit one's point. It's mostly focused on Prince Fielder, but it gets the point across. http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/how-will-prince-fielder-age/ http://cdn.fangraphs.com/blogs/wp-content/uploads/2011/10/Curve2.jpg For those who don't want to read, look at the curve. In general, fat players peak early then start a sustained decline around their mid-20's, sometimes falling off a cliff around their late 20's, which is exactly what's happening with Sandoval. The fact that the weight clause was a sticking point in negotiations should have been the red flag that sent the Sox far, far away from him. Then they go out and sign a better player and put him in an unfamliliar postition. Stupid all around. Another article, specifically on Sandoval: http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/which-pablo-sandoval-did-the-red-sox-buy/
  22. I can, because it's not the first time (and won't be the last time) a horrendously overweight player falls off a cliff from one year to the next. And the warning signs of a decline were there. Stop pretending they were not.
  23. "Playoff proven" means exactly jack s***, given the sample, and the need to acually get there. Three years of declining OPS and being 100 pounds overweight certainly were not going to help him flex his "playoff muscle". It was a stupid, stupid signing, and no one can objectively prove otherwise.
  24. Are you serious? Ken Rosenthal and a host of other sports media personalities immediately pointed to Sandoval's weight and three-year decline and pretty much declared it a huge bust possibility right at the outset. http://www.foxsports.com/mlb/just-a-bit-outside/story/pablo-sandoval-hanley-ramirez-this-red-sox-splurge-looks-a-lot-like-the-last-one-112414 Edes was worried about the fact that Sandoval didn't even want his weight problems to be mentioned during negotiations. The fellowiship of misery presided by Mazz and the CHB were right this time.
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