Palodios
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Everything posted by Palodios
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It sounds like Alex Wilson and a minor piece. I would imagine Wilson is intended to offset the qualifying offer, and that the Tigers consider Porcello and Cespedes equal value otherwise. Another perk is that the Red Sox have cleared some fringe 40 man roster spots this morning. All the pieces are starting to fall together, but they still need an ace.
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Wade Miley is turning to be a very polarizing player on all the articles and forums I've read today. Put into perspective, what would Miley get if he hit free agency this year? He's a consistent starter, pitching in a hitters park, eats innings, puts up good numbers, healthy, only 28. That's probably a 60 million dollar player in this market if you compare him to guys like McCarthy and Liriano. I'm mostly on board, but that 5.60 ERA at home this year is a big red flag. Hopefully he will be helped by an infield defense that doesn't suck.
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With the Yankees struggling, it makes life easier, but the big problem is the ballparks. Tampa is the only pitchers park in the group, and who knows where they will be in a year or two.
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I don't understand this move. Rubby seems like he is worth slightly more than him. Why trade a guy with a 4.43 ERA in the AL East for a guy with 4.34 ERA in the NL West, and less years of control? One has an ERA+ of 86, the other 87. Innings are nice and all, but put Miley into the AL East and he will get shelled.
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Two sources saying Red Sox close on Miley, Bob Nightengale say Sox not close. What a long torturous offseason.
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Sports writers are obsessed with puns. I seriously hope we don't have to deal with "He's so Miley" headlines.
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Wade Miley? I hope they don't give up much for him -- any more than the Alex Wilson/Drake Britton tier is too much.
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Cueto has a career .275 BABIP, so that doesn't seem all that crazy to me. He also has an ERA of 2.40 over the last four years -- I would imagine that is probably second only to Kershaw over that period.
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Ben has gone quiet today. I haven't heard reports on anything. They must dedicating a day to cool off instead of making rash decisions.
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Cueto doesn't come with any guarantees for after 2015 either. The Reds were a 76-86 team last year and need to trim payroll. They may tell their fans that they plan to compete, but they have 4 starters hitting free agency next year, a tiny market, and a pathetic farm system. They need to start reloading, or they'll be the Astros of the next decade. The big difference between the Reds and Phillies is that the Phillies don't need to trade Hamels in order to get value from him --he's an ace for them for years more. Cueto will only bring back value if traded because he's gone next year.
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The problem is that the Reds are also trying to trim payroll. Cespedes doesn't help much. What if the Red Sox traded Cespedes + pitching prospect for Cueto, and paid all of Cespedes's salary? That could help.
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Heyman reporting that the Red Sox are after Hamels again. Phillies reportedly like Betts, Bogaerts, Swihart, Cecchini. Greaaat. Cecchini would have to be the centerpiece there, because the Sox sure as hell shouldn't give up more than that.
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It isn't just the Cubs. The Cardinals and Pirates are big obstacles for the Reds and Brewers to reach the playoffs. The Cubs probably aren't going to win the division next year. However, they are a team that are no longer pushovers. Rizzo hit 32 home runs at first last year, Soler is looking like the real deal. Castro is very good. They need a #2 pitcher to go with Lester and Hammels, but I would be surprised if they didn't add one more.
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The other bright side of the morning is that we all woke up to Jon Lester not being a member of the Yankees.
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Meanwhile, the Astros have been stockpiling late inning relievers solely for the purpose of selling them to teams at the trade deadline. It would be genius if they didn't suck every year.
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The crazy part is that he just sold his home in Newton for $1.85 million. Even crazier, Chicago real estate is much cheaper than Boston real estate.
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The Cubs are looking to compete, in the same division as the Reds. The majority of the Reds pitching staff is a free agent in 2015. They have a good amount of incentive to try to blow it up a year early.
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If they want Cespedes, that's fine too. I would imagine they will go into full rebuild mode if they trade Cueto.
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Okay, I've done it. I have convinced myself that Cueto is the guy. He's two years younger than Lester. He's on a bad team in a division that just got tougher, and on a team that reportedly already needs to trim 19 million in payroll. The Red Sox have one of the biggest minor league pitching surpluses in the majors. They can afford to extend him. Cecchini + a pitching prospect + a throw-in for Cueto. Cespedes for one of Porcello/Latos/Gallardo in a three team trade. Ben, get it done.
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I posted it yesterday -- Mass and Illinois are around 5, California is around 13. However, Illinois will be going down to 3% next year so I have heard..
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I don't understand how the Red Sox can offer Pablo 19 million a year, but only 22 million for Lester. There is such a wide difference in talent there. If the Red Sox go after Hamels, we're looking at a 15 million dollar difference for a pitcher who is a year older and has never pitched in the AL, and will cost franchise-changing prospects. The only bright side here is that the NL Central just blew up. The Reds probably are seeing the writing on the wall, maybe the Brewers too. Cueto, Homer Bailey, Latos, Gallardo, maybe even Garza are now on the table, and possibly cheaper. Cueto is the big play here, but I wouldn't be surprised to see the Sox go after Latos+Bailey.
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It seems like every report is referring to Lester leaning to the Cubs. I think that means it is highly unlikely he will actually end up there. The other thing that keeps getting pointed out is that California income tax is 13%, versus Mass/Illinois 5%
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It sounds like Lester is bouncing around on options, and the Red Sox and Cubs are his top choices again. It sounds like he's happy with any of the offers, and just wants to go somewhere that makes sense to him. Sending John Henry was a nice touch, but maybe sending Ortiz, Pedroia, Farrell and people he actually likes might be better. Hell, send Pedro, Varitek, whatever it takes.
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It seems crazy that his season ERA has always been in the 3.00's or the 5.00's, but never the 4.00's.
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Pirates sign Liriano 3/39. Not someone I wanted, but another option off the board.
