Palodios

It does raise the question-- Is Fielder really worth 100 million more than Adam Dunn?

Oh. The way you worded it, coupled with ORS's stubbornness against the factor of luck gave me a different impression. I'm not sure what you don't buy about my argument. I considered the factors, and think that for the FO to have expected .850 from him is reasonable, but I think for him to perform above and beyond that benchmark had nothing to do with their foresight, and more to do with the player. When they were fighting against public opinion that was frustrated when Bay wasn't signed, it wasn't like they stood at the podium and said "Don't worry guys, we've got Adrian Beltre to hit .920 and solve all our offensive problems, and replace Manny/Bay". That was my original point, that he was good, but I don't think expectations were quite to that level. If they knew Beltre was going to hit that way, why on earth would they have talked about a bridge season, with an emphasis on pitching and defense, when their offense had such big potential?

Dipre, you keep talking conjecture. Yes I understand that when a player hits a double/fly ball in one park, it might be a home run/double in another. But that doesn't give a player a 20% increase in all statistical categories after coming off an injured season. He hit .872 in the AL East this season. That goes along with what I thought to expect of him, its his success outside of Fenway that boosted his stats, thus completely different from what you're arguing. The AL East has easier ballparks, sure, but it also has a pile of elite pitchers too-- the .400 OPS in Yankee Stadium seriously brought that stat down for him.

First of all, yes, I'm including a time when he was injured, which is relevant because that was an injury he had right before he was coming to the Red Sox, thus there was a chance it could have affected his play here. Secondly, his career stats include the 2004 and 2010 seasons, which significantly boost his stats in the AL East parks, and I'm sure other parks as well. Looking at his 2010 stats alone really isn't helpful in the discussion of whether or not this was predictable. But if you look at the numbers for 2010, they are all-around better in just about every park. He had troubles in Yankee, Target, and Rangers stadiums, but besides that he's in the .900- 1.000 range everywhere else. He even hit .869 in Safeco for SSS. Yes, it absolutely is small samples, but when when it is a small sample over several stadiums, it becomes a much larger sample to look at. Even compare his career numbers in all stadiums to his season numbers in all stadiums. He has far more .600 to .700 ranges in those samples. It looks to me like all signs seem to point this being an outlier year.

His career number in AL East stadiums says very little to that effect. Tropicana .638 Rogers .855 New Yankee .448 Camden .808 Fenway .821 The simple fact of the matter is he had a huge season, that can't be predicted by stats as you want to make it seem. If #2 is the best you've got, then I would want to stay away from Beltre AT ALL COSTS this offseason.

Are you guys just ignoring the numbers I put in front of your face, or do you truly believe them to be inaccurate? Here are his Away splits from the previous years 2010-- .953 2009-- .717 2008-- .862 2007-- .858 2006-- .806 2005-- .736 Are these not clear?

I'm no expert in advanced stats, and I have no problem admitting that--definitely pulled those numbers out of my ass. But over the last 4 years, Beltre has hit no better than .862 during away games for any season. Last season he hit .953 in away games. He is a career .820 hitter at Fenway(despite hitting .880 there this year). I sort of gauged him based on those numbers. This isn't just about park factors, because park factors do not back him up to hit that well. They back him up to hit .850, at best. Maybe my overall point was lost-- I just meant that they really need to work on the 3/4 slots, and their two biggest bats ended up being a bit better than could have been predicted.

There is a difference between expecting a resurgence and expecting players to be #1 or 2 at their position. If you take away Beltre's 2004, there is no evidence to support he'd ever hit as well as he did this year. Beltre's past history of performance said he was a career .270 hitter with an .770 OPS over 12 years, coming off a notable injury. His best seasons outside of 2004 were .835 and .804, and that includes several years outside of Seattle. He has been healthy his entire career, so that cannot be attributed to his performance, and he came off a season of career lows with his first major injury in years. The 1.017 seemed very clearly to be a fluke, or steroid related. Yes, moving out of seattle could have been worth .020-.030 points to average, and possibly a .050 boost to OPS. But getting MVP votes for the first time in 6 years?

Come on, I remember all the things you said about them... but mvp contenders? I don't recall you being that optimistic. They performed well above and beyond what could have been expected of them. This in no way diminishes them as players, but at that point in the career for them to hit as well as they did, and being completely healthy while losing half the lineup?

This is what concerns me. It seems like they're not looking past Ortiz, and it definitely seems like they're not overly worried about solidifying a set of big 3/4 bats. They're so worried about ticket prices, but having a monstrous 3/4 again is the best way to keep the stadium filled. Dunn/Ortiz in 2011, and Dunn/Gonzalez in 2012 would be HUGE on this team, especially with the kind of support they'll get from the rest of the offense. They don't realize it, but having a balanced offense isn't going to be anywhere as popular as having a potent middle-order. If they picked up Dunn... they can have both, and everyone is happy. They got lucky in 2010 with Beltre/Ortiz, and everyone knows it.

Haha, yeah, I figured that was a given.

I would be very interested in adding Dunn, but for some reason, I can't shake the feeling that he'll get a much better contract this time around. A while back he was heavily rumored to be going to the Yankees, but I have no idea where they'd put him. He's averaged 150 games per season his whole career, would benefit from hitting in a strong lineup, can hit both sides pretty well, and is the perfect piece to play 1B and slide into DH after this team moves on from Ortiz. As far as Varitek, he's probably gone. They didn't offer him arbitration (3 million + 20%= only 3.6 million) and he's been fighting injuries for a longgg time. Werth+Dunn+Olivo would be a very strong offseason for the Sox I think.

I'm arguing the quality of players at 1B/3B. Focus on the discussion please.

Facts are facts? Mike Lowell had a bigger impact on Texeira than Lars Anderson, and so did Scott Boras. And who hit/fielded better this year, Arod+Tex or Youk/Beltre?

Losing Martinez-- 4.1 WAR Losing Beltre 7.1 WAR They can't just hope to stay healthy and assume they'll play well without them, those are tough guys to replace in the lineup.

I'd be perfectly fine starting Adam Dunn, Maggy Ordonez, Manny Ramirez, Vladimir Guerrero or Matsui in LF. f*** defense.

Seemed like a perfectly reasonable question. Love him, or hate him, but there aren't a whole lot of LF I'd rather have than Manny.

He's just hyping his team. They all do that when they get a new contract.

What... what just happened? My world turned upside, and everything is spinning.

Utley, Howard, Ibanez, Victorino, Rollins, Werth... that's probably the strongest hitting lineup in the NL.

Jayson Stark reports the Red Sox are the front runners on Werth. Maybe Crawford isn't their #1 priority afterall.

Yeah, I agree, the FO is going to make zero moves and sign zero players this offseason and just go with what they have at every single position. All of their franchise players will either be hurt again next season or get traded away for nothing, and they will rename the franchise to the Boston Pirates. [/sarcasm]

If the Yankees put Izturis at SS, I'd be okay with them replacing Gardner with Crawford.