rhet

The Sox have an attitude that they can turn it on when they need to. Limp into the playoffs and we'll start playing ball when it matters. I don't believe that's the formula for success.

Build a team for 95 wins and then anything can happen? Not quite.

Weaver is aiming it. He can be had.

The Red Sox are going with the same lineup as the one that scored zero runs last night, with Victor Martinez catching Josh Beckett. Red Sox 1. Jacoby Ellsbury, CF 2. Dustin Pedroia, 2B 3. Victor Martinez, C 4. Kevin Youkilis, 1B 5. David Ortiz, DH 6. Jason Bay, LF 7. Mike Lowell, 3B 8. J.D. Drew, RF 9. Alex Gonzalez, SS -- Josh Beckett, RHP Drew, who is hitting .352 and slugging .690 in Sep/Oct, seems to be locked into the 8-hole.

Top to bottom, this lineup is probably better. What distinguished the 04 lineup was the two thumpers back-to-back. Getting .304/84/269 out of the 3/4 holes was nice.

I'm as critical of him as almost anybody, but seriously why was he batting 8th? He's been maybe the Sox best hitter since August 1st.

Yes, a juiced Manny and a juiced Ortiz would give us the thump we used to have.

This is absurd.

I thought the replay showed a clear tag when he came off the bag.

I love when the Japanese guys put the glove over the face to talk to the catcher. As if somebody could actually read their lips. lol

Bring in Byrd.

Not deceiving you. At this point, he's just pumping fastballs down the middle.

That's probably the worst call at 1B I've ever seen.

ORS, your arithmetic is right. Sorry, my bad.

For the tenth time, my argument has nothing to do with Drew's ability to get on base and possibly score, if someone behind him knocks him in of course. The issue is his seeming inability, as a middle of the order hitter, to knock them in. And those are my final words on this topic tonight.

Not wrong, as I have proven statistically. Just not to your liking. But what do I know, I'm just a colossal idiot.

I cherry picked a situation: bases loaded. Even though that situation is a small subset of his total PA, a sample of 128 PA in that situation provides statistical significance with a margin of error of +-8.66% of the proportion (.206 BA, .297 OBP) at a 95% confidence. That means you can be 95% confident that his true BA with the bases loaded is between .188 and .224 and his OBP with the bases loaded is between .272 and .322. Obviously, those averages are significantly lower than his actual averages when the bases aren't loaded. The flaw in my argument isn't the sample size, as you erroneously assert, it is the implicit neutralization of an age/experience variable which changes over a career. Nevertheless, it was a stat I was interested in because it is the one situation where OBP directly correlates to RBI.

14 PA are not statistically significant. That's why I used his career numbers. 128 PA in that situation produce a confidence interval of 8% at a 95% confidence level. Nevertheless, this is not a point value argument. It is one of relative worth. When someone argues against the use of RC, and for the use of RC/27, the list of players ahead of Drew doesn't change much. If he's the 8th or 10th or 12th best right fielder, based on all the empirical evidence, the answer to the thread header question is obvious.

Red Sox over Angels Yankees over Twins Yankees over Red Sox Phillies over Rockies Cardinals over Dodgers Cardinals over Phillies Yankees over Cardinals in 6

Using the RC sabermetric formula on the ESPN MLB stats site (Runs created = [(H + BB + HBP - CS - GIDP) times (Total bases + .26[bB - IBB + HBP] + .52[sH + SF + SB])] divided by (AB + BB + HBP + SH+ SF)), Drew created 91.6 runs for the Sox in 2009, which was 11th in MLB for right fielders, behind Choo, Suzuki, Werth, Ethier, Markakis, Abreu, Upton, Cuddyer, Hawpe and Swisher. Using this method, 9 JD Drews would create 824 runs (9x91.6=824) in 2009. In 2008, Drew created 79.0 RC runs, which was 16th among RFers, behind Markakis, Ludwick, Suzuki, Abreu, Dye, Giles, Ethier, Bradley, Winn, Nady, Ordonez, Hawpe, Pence, Hart and Werth. 9x79.0=711. In 2007, Drew created 76.1 RC runs, 14th among RFers behind Ordonez, Suzuki, Markakis, Hawpe, Abreu, Swisher, Hart, Francoeur, Winn, Guillen, Kearns, Cuddyer and Pence. 9x76.1=685. The three year average is 82.2, which would total an average of 740 runs created per year for 9 JD Drews. The Red Sox as a team scored 872 runs this year, 845 runs in 2008 and 867 runs in 2007. That's a three year average of 861 runs. So 9 JD Drews would create an average of 740 runs a season, which is 16% less than the number of runs the Sox actually scored, according to the sabermetric formula used by ESPN.