This is based on BOS trading and FA's, not industry experience though. Roger left via FA and had a long career. The Lester FA deal was pretty good. It also ignores bad trades like Drew Pomeranz.
I underlined the guys who have a chance to provide something to the pen this season. I'll talk about them from least likely to most likely. Luetge has been effective before ('21-'22), but is coming to the end of his career. It's likely that this is one of his final stops. Hagenman struggled a little after leaving the Dodgers org, but it's not surprising given WOO's catching options. I think he has a bit of a bounceback season and is a prime candidate to be a guy that gets a bump from the new pitching philosophy. Chris Murphy is a decent enough arm and will probably get similar playing time to last year. He's not really a top tier guy. Joely is a perfectly fine LH reliever. He's great if you can stash him in AAA for depth. Weissert is just a tick up from Joely IMO. Zack Kelly was pretty good when healthy. He's not a big k guy, but induces weak contact and doesn't walk guys. Can be a solid 7th inning reliever. If he's back to being healthy, he's the best of the guys I underlined IMO.
Guerrero is interesting, but I think he's not ready. He walks way too many guys right now and I'd like to see him succeed at AAA for a whole year before adding him to the 40 man. German was a high octane arm at one point, but needs a lot of work. He's just a one pitch pitcher right now due to command issues. I don't think Walter is worth a 40 man spot. I really don't know anything about Criswell. There's an outside chance we see Fitts this season, but more likely it'd be Gambrell.
Per fWAR or per real life?
TOR - Gausman, Berrios, Bassitt, Kikuchi, Manoah
BOS - Giolito, Bello, Pivetta, Crawford, Houck
About 7 games just based on the rotation? If the Sox had the Jays' rotation they'd be a 87 win team probably.
The Sox have been meeting with Montgomery and are still the highest bidder. Boras is just holding out for more money. The worry is that another team could swoop in and still outbid the Sox.
That 8 fWAR year was 5 years ago. Since then, he's only put up 6.3 fWAR. He's not barreling the ball anymore and his exit velo is down. If his BABIP drops, it'll get ugly for him.
The LA Times did a "GM Interview" with Bauer that ran last week. His answers were pretty s*** in it. I don't think any team that signs him would be pleased if that is how he's going to handle himself going forward. He's still blaming his current social media issues on others rather than just not posting at all. He's still very combative and believes that and PR issues would blow over in 3 days for a new team. He's a dumb guy who believes that he's very smart.
I don't want Walter starting any games this year. I haven't seen Fitts pitch in AAA so I can't comment. Winckowski is a bullpen arm only.
I may want Gambrell starting more than Murphy.