Since the day Mike Trout signed his deal:
Trout 21.7 bWAR
Bregman: 25.7 bWAR
2025 Projections have them producing at about the same level.
In order to justify 40M, he really only has to play like 2022 Bregman.
He's championing it because he has to manage Raffy's emotions. They need to work out this change in his career together. He wasn't going to outright say "Raffy is moving to 1B this year most likely" before they even had a replacement in house.
I heard that he kind of changed his tone, but didn't hear the quote. Interesting. Cora apparently said something similar, which is why they want Yoshida playing LF more.
Buehler got the most AAV for any one year deal. I think the Sox only wanted to go short on this SP crop. They liked Fried to a point and Burnes only had one destination in mind. Eovaldi/Manaea/Severino/Martinez/Kikuchi/Flaherty/Wacha I don't really care about. Aside from the top 2 guys, there wasn't a guy I thought they really needed to jump on since I really don't trust Snell.
Cora went to the DR earlier this offseason. I assume he met with Raffy while he was there. Raffy has been in camp for a while now. Maybe things are happening we don't know about? Maybe they aren't?
I saw a writer say "some say Bregman might play SS" and I just wanted to close my laptop. On the depth chart, I'd put Bregman at SS behind Story, Mayer, Rafaela, Hamilton, Campbell and Romy.
Tax difference between SP and Spotrac is only 6M and it seems to be in player benefits/MiLB pay. My guess it that the same assumptions carry over to TOR payroll tax.
What would push them over would be a considerable extension to Crochet that begins this season. The Devers extension began in the following season. If they extend one of Campbell or Anthony, I think that still leaves them behind TOR in the absence of other moves. If they extend both of them, it would likely push them over. They are edging closer to the 2nd CBT and we don't know if they have an appetite to go over that. THEY SHOULD since they have a lot of payroll coming off the books next offseason (50M+).
I think they all use different assumptions about player benefits though. If you used the SoxProspects assumptions on player benefits for TOR, their number probably goes up too.