I think there’s a much better chance the Sox win the division now, but I still think it’s not the most likely scenario.
WC 65%
Division 20%
No playoffs 15%
I’d also have Crochet as the #1 in the rotation above Cease, but both have the potential to be an “ace.” We have a long tradition here of wearing out what the definition is of an ace and how many aces there are in the league, so many of us have adopted other terms to avoid the argument altogether.