mvp 78

My preference is for IG88 to be behind the plate every game, but I guess this would be acceptable too.

I thought the article below was an interesting read, so I highlighted what I thought were more important points without just copy and pasting random sentences. Benny did struggle a bit last year and maybe and uptick in his hitting can offset the loss of Betts somewhat (especially if Verdugo comes back). https://www.overthemonster.com/2020/1/30/21114678/boston-red-sox-season-preview-2020-andrew-benintendi The Big Question: Is Andrew Benintendi’s 2019 strikeout rate the new normal? For the last few years, the thing with Andrew Benintendi has been his power. What I mean by “the thing,” of course, is the thing that we have most complained about. Benintendi was the top prospect in baseball before he got to the majors, and with that obviously comes with huge expectations. He has been good for two of his four years in the majors and about average in the other two. A consistent factor hanging over said performance has been the lack of standout power, particularly in his good years where it’s held him back from being great. At this point, though, I think I’m kind of coming to terms with the fact that Benintendi might just not develop that power. That’s not to say he can’t — I certainly think he can be a 20-homer hitter, at least — but that it’s not worth focusing on that and only that year in and year out. Benintendi, at his best, has enough skills to be a very good hitter without hitting the ball over the fence. In 2018, for example, he finished with a 122 wRC+ with only 16 homers. Last year, though, that wRC+ fell to just an exactly average 100, which is both not great for a left fielder nor for someone with his pedigree. The power was part of that, too, as he hit only 13 homers and put up a .165 Isolated Power in a year when power was booming across baseball. What stands out more to me than the power, however, is the plate discipline. This has long been the best part of Benintendi’s game at the plate, as he’s been able to control the strike zone and use that to his advantage to get good pitches to hit and spray line drives all over the field. Last year, his walk rate fell to 9.6 percent, a good rate but a full percentage point below his previous two seasons. His strikeout rate, meanwhile, jumped up to 22.8 percent, about seven percentage points higher than 2018 and about six higher than 2017. It’s that that I want to focus on today. I said above that Benintendi can be good even without standout power, and it’s the ability to make contact that makes it possible. He was able to stay afloat at times in 2019 because his hit tool is good enough and he can turn batted balls into hits very well, but the ceiling is severely limited if he’s striking out like this unless there is more power. Last year at this time, I wondered about what Benintendi would look like if he sold out for more power. I don’t know if that’s what he was doing, but if it is, A) it didn’t work and I hated it. Looking into the issues a little more, there were a few interesting points I want to touch on, starting with the obvious. Benintendi swung and missed a lot more. In fact, he swung a lot more, which may lend some credence to that idea of selling out for power. Per Baseball Savant, his swing rate jumped from 46 percent to 51 percent while the rate of pitches he saw in the zone fell from 48 percent to 46 percent. Predictably, a big part of his increased swinging strike rate came on pitches out of the zone. Also predictably, after his good 2018 he also saw fewer fastballs, which makes sense. Pitchers aren’t going to be eager to feed a good hitter a bunch of fastballs. Also, it’s a lot harder to lay off breaking ball or offspeed pitch than a fastball. At least, that is what one would think. Interestingly, the swing charts don’t really reflect that with Benintendi. Look at the pitches he was chasing in 2019 compared to 2018. There was a big jump in pitches down and in, which certainly would apply to breaking balls and offspeed pitches. The bigger jump, though, was up and away. Some of those were probably poorly located non-fastballs, but for the most part he was chasing fastballs. A similar trend is seen with the whiff rates. Again, there are jumps everywhere, but the big one is up and away. This would suggest he had trouble with fastballs out of the zone more than any other pitch. The overall numbers don’t totally bear this out — his whiff rate (per Baseball Savant) against all three types of pitches jumped by roughly the same amount — but in terms of the pitches out of the zone it sure seems like the fastball was the big issue. On top of all that, what was most interesting to me was the issue Benintendi had after falling behind early. In 2018, he struck out only 20 percent of the time after seeing a first-pitch strike. Among the 279 hitters who had at least 150 0-1 counts, that ranked 40th. Then, in 2019, that rate jumped up to 32 percent, ranking 183rd among 280 hitters. That is a massive jump in the wrong direction. Weirdly enough, as far as I could tell there was no substantial change in approach from pitchers after getting ahead 0-1. This was just Benintendi being a totally different, and worse, hitter under the same circumstances. So, what does all of this mean? I get the impression — and this is total speculation — that Benintendi got a little into his own head, first trying to take a leap at the start of the year then pressing when things didn’t go well. That played out on a macro level judging by his end-of-year numbers and also on a more granular level with the numbers on 0-1 counts. Before Alex Cora left the Red Sox, he mentioned that Benintendi had come in last season in different shape. Not out of shape, but bigger. The way I read that was that he was trying to be someone he wasn’t. Tim Hyers said more recently that Benintendi has dropped weight ahead of this year, which seems like a good sign to me. To answer the question, I think Benintendi should cut down that strikeout rate, and the biggest factor just seems to be accepting who he is and being the best possible version of that, which is a very good player. Even if it’s short of being a great one.

Not if you believe when John Henry says they don't have to get under the lux tax this year.

Or the robot umps...

Paddack Richards Davies Lucchesi Lamet Quantril (spot starter) Seems pretty good for the Padres to me.

The trade simulator doesn't factor for how desperate the Dodgers are to finally get that ring.

Interesting note about Casas from the ZIPS projection: ZiPS does like Triston Casas, and in terms of projected career WAR remaining, he’s the sixth ranked first baseman among the 20 teams that have had their ZiPS writeups so far, behind Cody Bellinger, Pete Alonso, Freddie Freeman, Miguel Sanó, and Josh Bell.

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/2020-zips-projections-boston-red-sox/ Fangraphs ZIPS projection article for the Sox is up.

Except the Holt isn't a Bloom guy apparently.

Sox need to determine if paying half of Price's salary going forward is worth it to reduce payroll and use the money elsewhere (on a younger starter maybe). I'd say yes.

Fine with me. Seems like the Padres were so much more hesitant to take on salary that it wouldn't have helped the Sox achieve their goal of getting under the lux tax.

According to Andy McCullough of The Athletic, the Dodgers front office "remains engaged with Boston" about a Mookie Betts trade. McCullough further adds that the "dialogue with Boston has approached a resolution" in recent days. It's unclear what names are being discussed -- the Dodgers are known to be reluctant to part with top prospects Gavin Lux and Dustin May -- but the financial resources are there and Los Angeles could potentially take on both the $27 million that Betts is owed in 2020 and the $96 million that David Price is due between 2020-2022. It sure sounds like this thing has legs.

@redsoxstats The new Athletic story says we are approaching a resolution on Betts. Price is in play, but probability not with LA taking his full contract. Mentions building a package around MLB players and prospects. Verdugo, Gonsolin, Ruiz, Gray all mentioned as options. Anyone have an Athletic log in?

AND robot umps?!?!? It kinda makes all the other horrible things about the future seem not so bad!

Which is what they did to Lester I believe.

And because they want fans to be pissed at Mookie because the FO has no intention of keeping him or bringing him back.

I don’t think Los Doyers want Eovaldi.

I’d rather prospects than 2 years of Seager at 2b if the goal is to get under lux tax.

Yup

How about Ted Williams’ severed head on a robot body? He has managing experience!

What if it was a Tesla?

Anyway, everyone should check out the latest SoxProspects podcast as they talk a ton about potential Betts deals and the recent DFA moves.

Dead since 2010. Zombie Houk?

Thanks DD! And JH for not saying no until the offseason.