mvp 78

@JustinMLB The Red Sox had a 38% projection to make the playoffs, in the 2021 preseason, FWIW

@CodifyBaseball Chances of making playoffs in 2023 (per FanGraphs): NYY 83.0% HOU 82.1% TB 69.3% TOR 67.7% CLE 54.1% SEA 48.0% MIN 46.4% LAA 39.0% TEX 33.0% BOS 30.7% CWS 27.8% BAL 9.9% KC 5.4% DET 2.9% OAK 0.9%

The last time a half year in age mattered was when I was able to sit for my license. At age 30? Yes, last season was his age 29 season. This year is his age 30 season. Are you expecting him to fall off a cliff? He has almost another decade to amass 25 fWAR and make his contract work out. He could do that by age 36. They'll be "eating" his deal at the end of it, but they are making money off of him right now. It's no different than what the Padres are doing 3 hours south of them.

If the Sox didn't go from last to first to last, fans would be more forgiving with the payroll. If they keep waiting "one more year" to go big on payroll, the boo birds will turn out in full force if the Sox can't make a realistic run at relevancy.

You need to pay somebody. If they totally pulled the plug on everyone, they'd have nobody to market.

Ticket price increase was 1.5-2% apparently. I guess fans are vaguely more interested this year?

2020: 2.8 fWAR partial season 2021: 3.8 fWAR injured and considered his "down year" with a 130 wRC+, 854 OPS 2022: 6.6 fWAR ho hum According to FanGraphs, he's already been worth over 100M to the Dodgers in just 2.5 years.

Sam is the used carsalesman of the bunch. He's the corporate doublespeak guy. I don't care for him at all.

@jcmccaffrey Cora says a lot of the non roster invitees will likely pitch the first few games. Says Kluber is scheduled to be the first of the major league starters to start a game which will be next Monday

Henry's longest response was saved for the CBA. JH: I believe the vast majority of players, agents and clubs dislike baseball's economic system. During the last CBA, clubs presented ideas for change -- ideas clubs thought could address a lot of player issues, but they were rejected. Similarly, the union presented ideas that the clubs rejected. Virtually all of the ideas for change were to address player issues but the system itself has become so convoluted over so many CBAs -- each one being an outgrowth of previous ones -- that is difficult now to agree on much of anything. Somehow the two sides found a way forward as difficult as that was but we continue to have a system -- again -- players and clubs are unhappy with. The system needs change. Competitive balance continues to be a huge issue for clubs. Players can better identify their issues better than I, but their issues are just as compelling. We have enough time to address fundamental issues prior to the next negotiation. We need ideas, but more than anything, we need to continue talking about the issues and work to address them in a collegial manner. I know our commissioner is committed to this. With regard to the Red Sox, we continue to work within the system whether it is on rule changes, disparity, economic incentives or competitive balance. This work is all about the game on the field and how all of these moving parts work together going forward. All of us who care about the game consistently discuss these issues. Right now, fundamental changes in media are at the forefront and we are fortunate to have a commissioner who has a very, very strong understanding of these issues and is always engaged in contingency planning and strategic solutions. Tom and I do what we can do assist. When he talks about the economics of baseball, he truly believes that he is in a small market and he doesn't want to spend. "And every team (maybe not the Mets) has a budget." - John Henry That quote tells you all you need to know.

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/brayan-bello-is-primed-for-a-breakout-year/ With a healthy season, Bello's Steamer floor is projected to be: 117 IP 3.57 ERA

@SmittyOnMLB Red Sox ticket sales are up 4.5 percent from this time last year, Sam Kennedy says

Q: What, if anything, do you think you could have done differently in the negotiations with Xander Bogaerts? A: We could have offered 12 years! https://www.overthemonster.com/2023/2/20/23607145/red-sox-xander-bogaerts-hey-john-henry-do-the-damn-dishes

Today is the first full team workout, FYI.

Since the start of 2018, Adalberto has 3 fewer AB's than Byron Buxton.

He played wire to wire in 2020!

He has more career innings at SS and hasn't played there since 2016. Is he even passable at 1B?

What is a reasonable % expectation? 2021 seems like an aberration as none of the starting rotation got injured.

If you are serious about competing, why not spend up to the line every year? Why be so far under it? Just sign 1 year deals!

@jcmccaffrey After a brief chat with Bush and the trainers, Bello is staying to do PFPs with the rest of the group and the trainers are headed to another field so that seems like a good sign

@jcmccaffrey Bello is throwing on flat ground with the other pitchers under the watchful eyes of a few trainers

The CBT threshold in 2020 was $208.

Also, Arroyo only has 51 innings at 1B. I'm not hanging my hat on that.

Without a SS, why would you have Kiké play either position though? On this roster, Kiké is SS/CF only.

I understand what you mean, I don't agree with it. Aside from Mata and Bleier, the guys you have listed don't generate much confidence in me. Kelly is ok, but is still largely unproven at the MLB level. Crawford/Winckowski are probably just bullpen arms, but neither saw their stuff tick up in the pen last year. Maybe just AAAA guys? Joely is hoping that his FIP is more indicative of his future performance, but he's still a career 4.50 ERA bullpen guy. Big whoop. Ort/Brasier/Mills are DFA'able IMO. Murphy/Walter need to at least show value at AAA before we can count on them for anything. Again, what good is this numbers game, really? Is it THAT much better or just moving deck chairs? Changing guys on the margins of the 40 man didn't help the team in 2020 or 2022. Arguably, it wasn't the key to 2021's success either as the guys they brought up from the bottom of the 40 man all were terrible.