https://blogs.fangraphs.com/brayan-bello-is-going-through-it/
For his whole career up to this point, he has lived in the low 30-degree range; last year, it was 33 degrees. This year, his arm angle is up to 42 degrees...
So whether the arm angle change is the cause of Bello’s woes or a symptom of some larger systemic issue, the real problem is he’s lost about a mile an hour of velocity this year, and his fastballs — all three of them — are getting crushed...
But he is also leaving more hittable changeups over the heart of the plate. Last year, only 9.5% of his changeups ended up in Statcast’s Heart zone. This year, that’s up to 22.7%. And it gets worse when you look at his four-seamer.
Truth be told, Bello’s four-seamer has never been great; it’s got average velocity and dead-zone movement. There’s a reason he throws mostly sinkers. But his four-seamer is still useful as a chase pitch and to keep hitters from sitting on the sinker. Usually, Bello throws the fastball up in the zone, or even above it....
This year, Bello’s either totally lost his fastball command or he’s throwing high on purpose. Only 31.8% of his four-seamers have been in the strike zone this year, and if that’s a deliberate strategy, it is super not working...
In other words, Bello’s four-seamer has led to seven hits and three outs this season, and one of those outs was on purpose. This is the pitch whose reintroduction has arguably made him more effective, because the cutter wasn’t working either. He does get a decent amount of in-zone whiffs with his cutter, but when he’s not locating the pitch well, he’s getting torched.
You see the problem. He’s already given up as many home runs on cutters in 2026 as he did in all of 2025.
There are lots of ways to get hitters out consistently, but generally a pitcher needs at least one of velocity and command, and Bello has been bleeding both this year.