Thank you for the compliment, first of all.
I believe in stats, more than most of you know. I had fun with Dipre, but I really wanted to get to the bottom of the Holliday thing, so we actually worked together and found out we were both actually right and wrong. I like Dipre, because, he actually THINKS. Ditto you, Kilo, Jacko, etc.
What I can't stand though is when people take some statistic and quote it without thought.
Also, there are differences in statistical types. Offensive and pitching statistics are highly developed. In a few short years, we've gone from batting average and RBI's to OPS and WAR, from ERA and wins to WHIP and FIP.
Defensive metrics aren't there yet. They haven't been studied enough, or developed enough, to warrant a true interpretation of value. Maybe they never will be. I don't know. I kind of hope they won't, to be honest. There is beauty in mystery and subtlety.
Baseball isn't just numbers. You really have to watch Derek Jeter every day to appreciate him. Every pitch, he's ready, on the balls of his feet, ready. I've never seen a player run out EVERY at bat. It doesn't matter if he's up 5 runs, or down five runs, whether it's a game in April or October. You can't see that in a box score. I may hate Pedroia, but he plays the same way. I'd f***ing love the guy if he was on my team.
I digress. What I'm saying is that when a metric comes out that is, in my opinion, so flawed, it's useless, in my opinion. I'd trust my eyes and scouting reports more. That's where we are with defensive stats. There is nothing I've seen yet that is good enough for me to depend on. I'll wait until someone figures out a good way to judge a player's defense.
I go back to my whole debate with Dipre. Looking at the numbers, Holliday looks like a fantastic hitter. He was killed in the NLDS. However, upon further review, and with Dipre's help, we realized that he did have a hole in his swing that was extreme, and it was exploited. I also realized that the hole was smaller than I originally thought.
The scouts were right, after all.
So when I hear the comments from ignorant individuals about "watch the gamezz" and other nonsense, I really laugh. There is a happy medium, one in which combining scouting and raw data gives the best overall picture. To shun one over the other is pure folly and stupidity, really. I use both, to varying measures. I primarily use my eyes and scouting reports on defense, and stats and scouting reports for hitting and pitching. I watch the games to see holes in a swing, what pitchers throw in what spots, how catchers set up. At the game, I look for the catcher's movement on the pitch [in general, the less the catcher's glove moves, the more likely it's a strike], the jump on the ball a fielder gets, the route a player takes to the ball, etc.
Every time I see someone quote "watch the gamezz" I immediately categorize that person as someone who doesn't understand the game and believes everything he or she reads. Incapable of forming any independent thought. I've had some classic battles with Jacko and Dipre..but you know what? I respect their baseball acumen. Jacko is one of my biggest sources for minor league players, even if he is, shall we say, slightly over-optimistic on our team's minor league players, and Dipre is probably just as good as I am, if not better, as picking up flaws in mechanics in players. You don't get that from stats. You get it from watching the game.
You can learn a lot from baseball if you take in all aspects of it. People who take just one avenue honestly don't understand the game and are not as qualified as someone who looks at the whole picture.