Last year, Mussina went into the season as the best pitcher of either the Yankees OR the Red Sox.
Look at 2006:
15-7 3.51 ERA 197.1 IP 1.11 WHIP
Now, if you look at this past years, he generally follows a bad season with a good one. Do I think he can be Cy Young caliber. No. However, if he comes anywhere close, and I mean anywhere close to those kind of numbers again, the Yankees will win the division by 8+ games like in 2006.
Look, this isn't some Yankees homerism from me. The teams finished within 2 games of each other last year. We had 39 [!] starts from guys last season who are now in the minors this year, mainly due to injuries we sustained last year. If we simply get stability from our rotation this year, the team will improve.
Schilling said it best. Whichever team has a healthier starting rotation wins the division. With Schilling done for at least half the year, if not his career, and Beckett having back issues, coupled with the Red Sox terrible schedule in May/April, I think the Yankees are the favorite to come out of the gate in better position. If Mussina has another near 3.50 ERA season again, you guys are going to worry about the Guardians and the Tigers, and not us. You'll be playing strictly for the wildcard.
Now...if Mussina has a year like last year, and Matsuzaka realizes he is a top-flight pitcher...the reverse holds true.
2006 37 NYY AL 15 7 32 32 1 0 0 0 197.3 184 88 77 22 35 172 5 3 804 1 0 3.51 4.52 129 1.110