a700hitter
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Everything posted by a700hitter
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And 10 tons of talent.
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Don't put words in my mouth, especially when they are the wrong words. Read through the thread. I have acknowledged the random aspects of the game and made my position clear.
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Yep, and Pedro could predict that he wouldn't have a good breaking ball in April-- not because he was in tune with randomness, but that he couldn't get the grip he needed in the colder weather. Dead arm is predictable for pitchers around the 3rd to 4th week of Spring Training games. Random? No. Physiological? Yes.
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That is not pure randomness, and I think you know it. Edit: He might have been able to predict constipation once a week, but surely the explanation would be physiological and not pure randomness.
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The output seems random because there are so many data points resulting from around 250-300 pitches per game over the course of thousands of games per year, but the results are not produced by randomness. They are largely the result of applied skill and talent applied.
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Also, how could data pick up tangible reasons like a hitter or pitcher making the slightest of mechanical adjustments?
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Just when you were becoming socialized. Disappointing. It is no wonder to me that BDC is a pile of dust.
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Farrell recently talked about that performance. He said that he couldn't believe that they kept pitching to Papi, because the rest of the lineup was hitting about .150.
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And that gap widened in the post season.
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You are misstating what I have said. I am not trying to assign an explanation to everything, because I couldn't possible know the reasons for everything. I am not willing to chalk up everything that I don't understand or can't explain to the great god of randomness. Edit: And there is no evidence to support the highlighted statement. You have no idea how much to attribute to randomness. No one is discounting that ther is a random element. I ascribe to Branch Rickey's philosophy of luck. He said that "Luck is the residue of design." Stated less elegantly, you make your own breaks. Talent is the differentiator and overcomes the random element of the game. No one can quantify the random element, so blindly assigning randomness to performance is something with which I disagree.
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The initial post was that there were that the hot or cold hand were fallacies, and that the batter's chances of success were the same in every at bat. The fact that you and Kimmi have backed off that extreme argument to say "could" and that you were referring to streaks that were not otherwise explainable demonstrates that the theory that all streaks are function of randomness is a fallacy.
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The unending quest for perfection?
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Whether Papi got better in those situations or the pitcher got knock kneed and peed himself at the prospect of facing Papi in those circumstances is debatable, but one thing is for certain -- the advantage shifted to the batter more than it would for most other hitters.
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LOL!!! Were you a ball hog? I was always happy to mix it up in the blocks, but on the rare occasions when I was on, I enjoyed being Jerry West or Pistol Pete for the day. It seems that your athletic life has been a series of random streaks and slumps. Could you hit the curveball or did the optical illusion of the curve fool you?
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Those who think that what they don't understand or things for which they cannot discern a reason can only be explained by randomness are the flat-earthers. Attributing everything that we don't understand to the great god of randomness is the opposite of enlightenment. Just because observers and coaches can't put their finger on something different doesn't mean that the player hasn't changed something. Players know what they are working on and tweaking at all times, and they are not going to share that, because it gives the opponent the opportunity to counter more quickly.
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Excellent point. Anything that cannot be explained seems random. Few things are completely random.
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I understand the value of sabremetrics in evaluating performances and in predicting trends. I understand much more of it than you would think. It really is not rocket science. But when the Sabre-fanatics go off the rails, they enter the realm of nonsense. Saying that there is no such thing as a hot hand or cold hand and that it is just a function of randomness is nonsense. It reminds me of the physicists that argued that the curve ball is an optical illusion. And I have much more respect for the laws of physics than for the study of statisitics.
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Because the game is really difficult to play at any level and exponentially more difficult at the MLB level. The slightest changes make the difference between success and failure.
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And having your muscle memory functioning in a way to perfect your mechanics for a period of time. Edit: Just paraphrasing the end of your post.
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Fair enough. I agree. I also think that when evaluating a player's streaks (hot or cold) it is very impossible to identify the reason as being random versus skill, except in extreme cases of at'em balls or seeing eye hits.
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So you are in the camp that hot streaks and cold streaks are just a function of randomness?
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Yep, and the answer is not randomness. Talent and an unbelievable amount of repetition has created a situation where there is an astounding level of consistency. This consistency is a by product of hard work to perform to one's highest capabilities. The fluctuations involved in the pursuit of top performance involve much more than randomness.
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And this is where he goes off the cliff. Frankly, it is nonsense.
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or Grbec (sp)
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I agree with this. When you enter the zone, hot streak etc, is definitely unpredictable, but when you find it, there is little that is random about your performance. There are so many factors that can contribute to that type of play -- really having good mechanics that day, a good frame of mind and building confidence, better mental awareness of the entire court, peak conditioning and health. It must be the way Larry Bird felt almost every game. LOL!!! On that day you know that you will be hitting 80% of your shots instead of your usual 40%, and hopefully your team and coach realize it and feed you the ball, because each time the ball leaves your hand on that day you don't have a 40% probability of hitting each shot. Your probability is much higher. When you get in a zone like we are describing, the performance seems effortless and your stamina is unbelievably better than usual. You could play for hours.
