a700hitter
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Everything posted by a700hitter
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I understand the value of sabremetrics in evaluating performances and in predicting trends. I understand much more of it than you would think. It really is not rocket science. But when the Sabre-fanatics go off the rails, they enter the realm of nonsense. Saying that there is no such thing as a hot hand or cold hand and that it is just a function of randomness is nonsense. It reminds me of the physicists that argued that the curve ball is an optical illusion. And I have much more respect for the laws of physics than for the study of statisitics.
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Because the game is really difficult to play at any level and exponentially more difficult at the MLB level. The slightest changes make the difference between success and failure.
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And having your muscle memory functioning in a way to perfect your mechanics for a period of time. Edit: Just paraphrasing the end of your post.
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Fair enough. I agree. I also think that when evaluating a player's streaks (hot or cold) it is very impossible to identify the reason as being random versus skill, except in extreme cases of at'em balls or seeing eye hits.
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So you are in the camp that hot streaks and cold streaks are just a function of randomness?
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Yep, and the answer is not randomness. Talent and an unbelievable amount of repetition has created a situation where there is an astounding level of consistency. This consistency is a by product of hard work to perform to one's highest capabilities. The fluctuations involved in the pursuit of top performance involve much more than randomness.
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And this is where he goes off the cliff. Frankly, it is nonsense.
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or Grbec (sp)
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I agree with this. When you enter the zone, hot streak etc, is definitely unpredictable, but when you find it, there is little that is random about your performance. There are so many factors that can contribute to that type of play -- really having good mechanics that day, a good frame of mind and building confidence, better mental awareness of the entire court, peak conditioning and health. It must be the way Larry Bird felt almost every game. LOL!!! On that day you know that you will be hitting 80% of your shots instead of your usual 40%, and hopefully your team and coach realize it and feed you the ball, because each time the ball leaves your hand on that day you don't have a 40% probability of hitting each shot. Your probability is much higher. When you get in a zone like we are describing, the performance seems effortless and your stamina is unbelievably better than usual. You could play for hours.
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His breaking stuff moves so much and with different amount of break it just seems to handcuff him.
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And with basketball when you get into a flow where you are completely in rhythm with a good feel, all of your looks are good looks and your mechanics just flow perfectly. That was rare for me. I played full court pickup games into my late 30's on Long Island, and I can still remember the last night that I had like that. I couldn't miss, hitting from the inside, the outside and on the break. I felt like I was floating. I was usually a guy that dug for rebounds and passed the ball. That night as it became apparent that I had the HOT HAND, my teammates kept feeding me the ball. One of the better guys said to me "you are in the zone tonight. Doesn't it feel great?" That night if you had bet against me shooting the ball on the theory that I was a 40% shooter you would have lost a ton of money. No lucky bounces or bank shots. No randomness. Nothing but net. I am glad that my teammates realized what was going on and unselfishly helped me enjoy that night.
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The only thing about Leon's defense that concerns me is that he seems to have a great deal of difficulty handling Kimbrel. He looks overpowered by him.
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So the the statement that "There really is no such thing as a 'hot hand' or a 'cold hand'" is either hyperbole or a fallacy, because you have no way way at all of knowing what contributes to these hot or cold streaks that appear to you to be random. You have no way of knowing whether any, most or all of these streaks are due to randomness.
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It can be as simple as something clicks in during a game or practice through all the repetition (and it might even be hard to articulate it) Once it starts to work, the muscle memory takes over. As quickly as that comes, it can leave you too, or pitchers make an adjustment that negates the slight change you have made. It is not just a matter of chance. These guys are making adjustments constantly, most are imperceptible to others, even their coaches. Most adjustments are not major adjustments. It is funny that the same people here who will tell others that they cannot judge whether a player is a good hitter or fielder without advanced stats, because of "lying eyes" are trying to put forth a case that they can tell when a streak is random as opposed to something done by the player. Too funny. I guess that their eyes don't lie.
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Your theory that there is no such thing as a hot hand becomes a tautology when you add if it is random. It is a fallacy, because you have no idea which streaks are due to randomness and which are due physical reasons whether they be physical or mental approach. Saying that there is no such thing as the "hot hand" is pure nonsense. Thankfully, Matheny apparently followed that theory as Papi continued to torch his team at a .700 clip while no one else on the team was squaring up the ball. Thankfully AL pitchers continued to pitch to Yaz in 1967, but I don't think they though he was randoming them to death.
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Some hot streaks are definitely the result of adjustments significant or not, and some slumps are due to falling into bad habits or just fatigue. The premise that the hot hand doesn't exist is just not true.
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I never said that randomness had nothing to do with outcomes, but randomness is not the explanation for all hot or cold streaks. It probably is not the primary reason for most hot or cold streaks.
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Yep, that can happen. The pitchers can adjust that quickly. If they notice that a guy has moved up on the plate by a couple of inches and is making good contact to the pull side, the pitchers will adjust very quickly. Pedro would adjust to the batter within an AB. He would notice the slightest adjustment to foot position, hand position and bat angle, and he would adjust to counter. Anyway, you have exploded your whole premise that there is no such thing as a hot hand.
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Just because the streaks seem to you to come out of nowhere is not proof that there is no reason. It is a game of constant adjustments. If a hitter goes on a prolonged streak, it is the result of him finding a successful mechanical approach and mental approach to his ABs. Some of it can be embellished by luck of finding more grass than gloves, but often a guy in a hot streak is even making hard hit outs. Sooner or later the pitchers figure out a weakness, whether it is a location or a sequence and the streak ends.
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If slumps were so easily identifiable, they would not be so vexing and players would straighten themselves out pretty quickly. Slumps and hot streaks are not solely the result of finding holes or finding gloves. Slumps occur when a player is squaring up the ball less often than usual. If a hitter goes 0-3 but squares up 3 at'em balls, he goes to the ballpark feeling good about himself the next day. If he gets his pitch and hits a dribbler and two foul pop ups, he knows that he is having a problem getting the barrel on the ball, and he needs to figure out why. Randomness will not break him out of it.
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They may seem to come out of nowhere to you, but it is more likely the result of an adjustment and work. Strat-o-matic was designed to simulate past baseball statistics. Baseball doesn't follow the laws of strat-o-matic. Talent, adjustments and effort define the outcomes.
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Rougned Odor says that he can take a pretty good punch.
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Yep, it is completely random. Whatever floats your boat, but you are wrong. Drone on.
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And baseball like the magician's toss of the coin involves skill, not pure chance. Many factors contribute to the outcome at any particular time. It is not random chance when skill is involved.
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What are the odds when a skilled magician flips the coin?
