a700hitter
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Everything posted by a700hitter
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Where we differ is that you think hot and cold streaks are due to randomness. I do not agree. You have been unable to prove or quantify that hypothesis. I think that there streaks are LARGELY due to mechanical adjustments, and other physical and mental explanations. And now we are going in circles.
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Hmm indeed. Maybe the randomness tends to even out.
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I never said that there was no random element to baseball or to hot or cold streaks, but I do deny that streaks are are a function only of randomness as had been asserted at the beginning of this discussion. Now, your goal posts have moved. Mine have not.
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See my edit to my post above.
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Okay. You have convinced me. Players are wasting lot of time doing all that work. Edit: You asked me what I consider to be random. Then you ask me what I thought about Sandy Leon's new found success. I told you. You disagree. That about sums it up.
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He started making hard contact less consistently which could indicate a number of different reasons other than random luck or absence of luck, e.g. pitchers pitched more carefully to him, changed their approach when facing him, he got a bit banged up or fatigued affecting his mechanics, he fell into some mechanical bad habit, or any number of factors that could affect his performance.
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Ground balls that are smoked through holes are different than multiple bouncers going through the infield which I would categorize as seeing eye base hits. He was making hard contact much more consistently than he had previously in the majors. Many of his outs were stung too. That was applied skill.
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Bloop hits, seeing eye groundballs, swinging bunt hits, line drives at fielders, bad hops, foul pops that make it into the stands by one or 2 rows -- anything that is obvious luck. The rest is a function of applied skill by the contestants.
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I vow to you Pete that I will do whatever I can to prevent them from sucking the fun out of this place too.
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And 10 tons of talent.
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Don't put words in my mouth, especially when they are the wrong words. Read through the thread. I have acknowledged the random aspects of the game and made my position clear.
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Yep, and Pedro could predict that he wouldn't have a good breaking ball in April-- not because he was in tune with randomness, but that he couldn't get the grip he needed in the colder weather. Dead arm is predictable for pitchers around the 3rd to 4th week of Spring Training games. Random? No. Physiological? Yes.
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That is not pure randomness, and I think you know it. Edit: He might have been able to predict constipation once a week, but surely the explanation would be physiological and not pure randomness.
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The output seems random because there are so many data points resulting from around 250-300 pitches per game over the course of thousands of games per year, but the results are not produced by randomness. They are largely the result of applied skill and talent applied.
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Also, how could data pick up tangible reasons like a hitter or pitcher making the slightest of mechanical adjustments?
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Just when you were becoming socialized. Disappointing. It is no wonder to me that BDC is a pile of dust.
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Farrell recently talked about that performance. He said that he couldn't believe that they kept pitching to Papi, because the rest of the lineup was hitting about .150.
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And that gap widened in the post season.
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You are misstating what I have said. I am not trying to assign an explanation to everything, because I couldn't possible know the reasons for everything. I am not willing to chalk up everything that I don't understand or can't explain to the great god of randomness. Edit: And there is no evidence to support the highlighted statement. You have no idea how much to attribute to randomness. No one is discounting that ther is a random element. I ascribe to Branch Rickey's philosophy of luck. He said that "Luck is the residue of design." Stated less elegantly, you make your own breaks. Talent is the differentiator and overcomes the random element of the game. No one can quantify the random element, so blindly assigning randomness to performance is something with which I disagree.
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The initial post was that there were that the hot or cold hand were fallacies, and that the batter's chances of success were the same in every at bat. The fact that you and Kimmi have backed off that extreme argument to say "could" and that you were referring to streaks that were not otherwise explainable demonstrates that the theory that all streaks are function of randomness is a fallacy.
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The unending quest for perfection?
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Whether Papi got better in those situations or the pitcher got knock kneed and peed himself at the prospect of facing Papi in those circumstances is debatable, but one thing is for certain -- the advantage shifted to the batter more than it would for most other hitters.
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LOL!!! Were you a ball hog? I was always happy to mix it up in the blocks, but on the rare occasions when I was on, I enjoyed being Jerry West or Pistol Pete for the day. It seems that your athletic life has been a series of random streaks and slumps. Could you hit the curveball or did the optical illusion of the curve fool you?
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Those who think that what they don't understand or things for which they cannot discern a reason can only be explained by randomness are the flat-earthers. Attributing everything that we don't understand to the great god of randomness is the opposite of enlightenment. Just because observers and coaches can't put their finger on something different doesn't mean that the player hasn't changed something. Players know what they are working on and tweaking at all times, and they are not going to share that, because it gives the opponent the opportunity to counter more quickly.
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Excellent point. Anything that cannot be explained seems random. Few things are completely random.
