...and if Ortiz accepts the arbitration and hits 25-30 HRs with an .800 OPS, they'll have to decide again at the end of 2012 whether to offer him arbitration. If they offer the arbitration, they'll likely be locked in for another $13+ million for 2013. If they look to cut ties and don't offer the arbitration, they'll get no picks anyway.
Getting picks is fine if you are offering arbitration to someone who doesn't have a limited market like Ortiz. If you offer arbitration to Ortiz, they had better be prepared to pay more than his inflated 2011 salary. I remember when they offered arbitration to Tony Graffinino hoping to get draft picks. No one wanted him, so they signed him to a 2 year contract and placed him on waivers in March 2006. He was claimed by KC.
If Ortiz is feeling healthy, it's probably a good bet for him to accept the arbitration and roll the dice for 2013.