With Lucas Giolito Down, Red Sox Depth Will Pay Dividends

They always say you can never have too much pitching, and the Boston Red Sox are proving that true. With news that Lucas Giolito will open the season on the injured list, the Red Sox have now seen three starters shut down this spring. Kutter Crawford went down first, dealing with a knee issue that he had been bothering him since last season. There was some concern that he might need surgery, but that doesn’t look likely now. Crawford will instead look to rehab it and look to help the Sox during the season. Brayan Bello was the next, dealing with a sore shoulder that kept him behind schedule. The right-hander has yet to pitch in a spring training game, but has thrown on the backfields as he’s worked to get ready for the season. Bello is expected to miss only the 15 days needed to qualify for the IL, so long as he doesn’t suffer a setback. He'll likely pitch in a couple of rehab appearances in the minors before returning to Boston.

As for Giolito, the right-hander signed a two-year, $38.5-million deal before the 2024 season, but injuries have kept him from making a single start for the Red Sox. In his first spring training appearance, Giolito lasted a single inning, being pulled due to a left hamstring strain. Giolito said he felt it while pitching to the first batter of the game and that he has dealt with worse. Giolito had been lined up to pitch the fifth game of the season per Alex Cora but the injury will now place him on the injured list. Just like Bello, it seems he’ll only miss the minimum amount of time.

Usually, three injuries to your starting rotation before the season even starts can be enough to derail an entire season, leaving the team so far in the hole that they can't recover. The Red Sox, however, built up their pitching depth over the offseason and it’s starting to pay off. Even with Hunter Dobbins being optioned to minor league camp, the Red Sox have three potential candidates in camp competing for the last two spots in the rotation: rookie Richard Fitts, trade deadline acquisition Quinn Priester, and swingman Cooper Criswell.

Fitts has looked the most impressive out of the three, and may have already locked up a spot in the rotation. In three appearances this spring, Fitts has gone 6 1/3 innings and struck out nine. What may be most impressive is the increased velocity on his fastball. Last season Fitts’ four seamer averaged around 94-95 mph. Through his three spring training appearances, his fastball has climbed to 97 mph and even topped out at 99 mph. He's also introduced a sinker and curveball to his arsenal and now looks like a different pitcher.

To put into perspective the improvement of his arsenal, in 20 2/3 innings last year, Fitts only struck out nine batters. In 6 1/3 innings this spring he’s already matched that. If he can continue to get whiffs with his improved fastball, then Fitts could make the Verdugo trade with New York look even better than it already does. Prior to this change, his ceiling appeared to be a fifth starter or a bullpen arm. Now? If he’s able to put everything together, there’s an argument to be made that he could become a number three or four pitcher.

Priester has also looked different since the start of spring training. He put on 15 pounds of muscle over the offseason, and like Fitts, his fastball has improved, topping out at 96 mph this spring. The right-hander was acquired at the trade deadline for Nick Yorke and spent most of his time at Worcester. Priester made one start for the Red Sox, pitching five innings and allowing a single run. So far in the spring, he has looked good, starting three games and throwing 6 2/3 innings, though has allowed his share of walks, surrendering four of them so far. Still only 24 years old, Priester could be a decent fill-in until either Bello or Giolito is healthy.

Finally, Criswell is the pitcher with the most big-league experience. A low-cost signing last year, Criswell became invaluable to the Red Sox as he bounced back and forth between Boston and Worcester, filling in for the rotation and bullpen as needed. In 99 1/3 innings over 26 appearances and 18 starts, Criswell pitched to a 4.08 ERA. So far in spring training, he has been hit the hardest, pitching in three games and allowing four runs in 6 2/3 innings pitched.

While the Red Sox have yet to offer any hints about who will fill out the rotation, there’s a good chance they might go with Fitts and Priester. Criswell would either be sent down to Worcester to begin the season, or, with Josh Winckowski struggling, fill in as the long man in the bullpen. The Red Sox are in a good position because of their depth, and also because Garrett Crochet, Tanner Houck, and Walker Buehler, make an excellent top of the rotation.