The Red Sox Are Trying To Build A Super-Defense. How Close Are They?

2 hours ago, TedYazPapiMookie said:

Mayer is supposed to be the SS of the future but struggled terribly in the minors and Campbell a natural SS since he was young should be given the first shot at SS but won't get that because of Cora.  Mayer will get that, and the bias is strong enough that if he's just average and maybe even below average like Devers, he'll probably keep the unearned position.  The tough question is, can Campbell successfully convert to 2B or is that why they were trying him at 1B?  If they refuse to let him win the SS position, then he needs to maximize his skill at one of the other two positions because they need his bat in the line-up.

"the bias is strong enough" by the poster to keep posting the same opinion every week.

Have you been able to convince anyone else on the internet that Alex Cora favors Mayer from California over Campbell from Tennessee? Or that Mayer "struggled terribly" at shortstop in the minors?

"Campbell a natural SS since he was young should be given the first shot at SS but won't get that because of Cora" .... "If they refuse to let him win the SS position"

-- in one sentence you blame Cora, but then correctly use the plural "they" because not using Campbell at SS is a system-wide organizational decision.

And despite whatever any of us think, the main reason no rookie is being given a shot at shortstop is because Trevor Story from Texas is under contract for big money for two more years after this one.

3 hours ago, TheSplinteredSplendor said:

The Red Sox nearly lost Roman Anthony and Marcelo Mayer to injury because they lead the league in dumb baseball - Over the Monster

A silly "analysis" filled with bias.  To me it was an absolutely normal in-betweener that could have resulted in a collision but didn't--credit to both rookies.  There was absolutely nothing "dumb" about that play.

I think both are above average fielders and very likely above average hitters.   The Sox decision to bring them both up this season makes all kinds of sense.

4 hours ago, TedYazPapiMookie said:

Let's be fair.  First, Duran is an incredible centerfielder and an average left fielder.  Cora is screwing up by playing him in centerfield.  He needs to move Rafaela to the most difficult field in Fenway, right field so both CF and RF have the top two defenders.  RF is such a weak position that being given a GG for playing RF in the AL is not too much better than a participation trophy.  Heck, another just slightly above average outfielder named Verdugo almost won it the year before Abreu won it.  It's a joke.  Put Rafaela in RF and he'll be a Platinum Glove winner for years.  Lastly, in the tradition of the great Boston players, we need Anthony in right field just like Yaz and Ted.  That outfield will be the best in baseball.

In the infield, Bregman had an early adjustment period but is now much more like the GG at 3B from last year.  Mayer is supposed to be the SS of the future but struggled terribly in the minors and Campbell a natural SS since he was young should be given the first shot at SS but won't get that because of Cora.  Mayer will get that, and the bias is strong enough that if he's just average and maybe even below average like Devers, he'll probably keep the unearned position.  The tough question is, can Campbell successfully convert to 2B or is that why they were trying him at 1B?  If they refuse to let him win the SS position, then he needs to maximize his skill at one of the other two positions because they need his bat in the line-up.  Campbell already flashed greatness at hitting and now he needs to get back to the MLB to finalize his adjustments so he can thrive again.  Hopefully, at some point soon Mayer will have flashes of greatness like Campbell, and it looks like Anthony might be turning the corner to fulfill the great expectations for him.  People need to realize that the two infield rookies are going to struggle especially Campbell while learning the 2B position at the MLB level.  Keeping Casas at 1B should be the long-term solution but it's so hard to tell with Cora's inconsistencies.  He might pick Toro over Casas; he really doesn't have a good grasp for talent.

By 2026 this team should be much better defensively if they slot the players in their best positions and at batting if they once again figure out a logical batting order based on skillsets of the hitters.

Always good to begin with a whopper, "Let's be fair."  You seem to have two absurd obsessions, one that Cora is biased and and/or an idiot, the other that Campbell is a defensive gem incorrectly used.  

I think we all like Campbell's potential and hope he will make it back to Boston.   But when Bregman returns there won't be a handy spot for Kristian in the outfield or infield.  

5 hours ago, Finley Rogan said:

Craig Breslow spoke on the NESN broadcast during Sunday’s game and discussed his vision for a winning Red Sox team. In Breslow’s eyes, an athletic and sturdy defensive team is the key to achieving success. He also seemed to hint at his overarching philosophy in fielding a contender, which seems to break from past Red Sox teams focused on a deep lineup with all-or-nothing power. This is also not a massive surprise considering Breslow just traded Rafael Devers, who neither fields or runs well—not exactly the archetype that Breslow wants as a franchise cornerstone. 

With all that being said, the Red Sox are currently tied for the league-lead in errors committed, a stat that can be relatively useless when considering the human element, and the wide array of defensive statistics available beyond errors. For example, the Red Sox currently rank 10th in Defensive Runs Saved (DRS) with 20, and 18th in Outs Above Average (OAA) with -4. 

Ceddanne Rafaela is easily the best defensive player on the team, and will be the center fielder in Boston for the foreseeable future. Rafaela has one of the best reaction times in baseball, while carrying 88th percentile sprint-speed and a strong throwing arm. Rafaela has gotten even better defensively this season, and his 13 OAA is tied for first in MLB. 

(Statcast)

Elsewhere in the outfield, Wilyer Abreu leads the team in five-star plays. Statcast qualifies any fly ball with a sub-25% catch probability as a five-star play, and Abreu has three of them, which ranks third in the league. Abreu is 27th league-wide in OAA, and he will have a decent chance at another Gold Glove in right field this season. Jarren Duran, on the other hand, has not replicated his solid defense from a season ago. In Duran’s defense, he has had to transition from center to left field, which is made even tougher at Fenway with the green monster. Duran currently has -5 OAA, which is worst among all Red Sox outfielders. 

The good news is that, in a small sample, Roman Anthony has demonstrated plus skills in the outfield, and should be above the 70th percentile in terms of OAA throughout his career. His defensive metrics grade out really well in right field, but Anthony will likely see more time at left in the coming years, especially if the Red Sox elect to trade Duran and hold onto Abreu.

Unfortunately, the infield has not been the same story defensively. Alex Bregman, David Hamilton, and Marcelo Mayer all have one OAA this season, and they lead all Red Sox infielders. Both Romy Gonzalez and Abraham Toro have been slightly below average at first, but neither has performed as poorly defensively as Triston Casas. That is another factor to consider with Casas’s long-term future with the team, although Breslow may be okay with one or two poor defenders on the roster if their offensive output offsets their defensive mishaps.

Trevor Story is another infielder who is just average defensively. Realistically, Marcelo Mayer will move to shortstop at some point during Story’s remaining tenure with the Red Sox. Mayer has better range, and likely a bit more arm strength, and his athleticism hasn't been sapped by years of injuries. A better shortstop will make the infield group better as a whole.

Finally, we reach Kristian Campbell, a player who has really struggled defensively this season. Although Campbell has been suitable in the outfield, he had an awful run defensively at second base earlier this season. The defense could have played a real factor in Campbell being sent down, although clearly he was struggling with the bat as well. What makes the situation especially difficult for Boston is that the outfield spots are not only full now, but in the future as well. Campbell will probably get another shot at second base, but his -5 OAA will need to improve or he will risk being a utility player who can't stick at any position.

Overall, the Red Sox are clearly trying to build an athletic defense that can stack up against the best teams in MLB. Yes the errors this season have been untimely and incredibly frustrating, but the Red Sox have some great young fielders, and the defense should only improve from here. It isn't the sexiest way to build a contending team, but a good defense can cover for a lot of holes elsewhere on the roster.

 

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The best Sox teams have always put hitting above fielding.  Most teams do because ain't nothing harder than hitting a round ball with a round bat squarely.    Thus Devers at 3b for 8 straight seasons.  Thus Bogey at SS.  

To me what's happened is that the acquisition of Bregman has coincided with the already good defense of Rafaela in CF and Abreu in RF, and and the arrival of Narvaez at catcher.  Plus I like Story at SS (or 2b), whose DWAR is currently +0.9.  

As I have been saying forever, the team fielding percentage, 98%, is just below the best in MLB, 99%.  You have to look at DWAR's or whatever to see where the weak and strong spots are.

When Bregman returns the infield will be solid if not gold glovers--except for 1b, where the primary skill should be good hitting.  The outfield will have Rafaela, Abreu, and for my money Anthony, who lacks Duran's speed but already has a +0.3 DWAR to Duran's -0.1.  Plus Narvaez/Wong catching, both with plus DWAR's.  

At the same time--and this is important--there won't be many weak bats,  I mean that's why Anthony and Mayer were brought up--for their freaking bats.  The defense is extra.  Rafaela's OPS is now at .730 and rising.  Story's is now .675 and also rising.  Bregman's OPS is over .900.  Toro's .801, Abreu's .828.  Narvaez's .799.  It's almost as though Devers' bat will not be missed.  Heck, right now the lineup seems to be hitting better and they lack both Bregman and Devers.  

22 minutes ago, Larry Cook said:

I view rafeala and abreau as a plus defensive outfielder! I think Anthony can be a decent left fielder! Also Garcia is also a plus defensive outfielder! 
 

I think Mayer can be a decent defensive third baseman or short stop! Probably a higher floor at 3B! Story is regressing rapidly at short! But hard to move his contract to another team! Bregman comes back, Bregman takes over at 3B and Mayer should move to 2B! 
If anybody gets traded, I liked sogard at 2B defensively!!  
I think toro has been decent at 1B defensively!! 
I really like narveaz at catcher, but eventually he will hit the rookie wall because of over use!!!!

huge opportunity for bres-slow to upgrade the infield defense by moving all the expiring contracts in a few weeks 

Bregman, Mayer, and Story already have plus DWAR's of, in order, +0.7, +0.3, and +0.9.  As far as I'm concerned the upgrade of the infield is already here, or haven't you noticed that Devers didn't play a single inning at 3b this year?   Toro's DWAR stinks, but his OPS is .801.  Narvaez has the best catcher DWAR in MLB.  

I see no need or room for Garcia or Sogord or Hamilton when Bregman returns.  

I'm fine with whatever Cora decides, but my bias is to play Mayer at SS and Story at 2b, where his DWAR was +1.0 in 2022.  

14 hours ago, Finley Rogan said:

Craig Breslow spoke on the NESN broadcast during Sunday’s game and discussed his vision for a winning Red Sox team. In Breslow’s eyes, an athletic and sturdy defensive team is the key to achieving success. He also seemed to hint at his overarching philosophy in fielding a contender, which seems to break from past Red Sox teams focused on a deep lineup with all-or-nothing power. This is also not a massive surprise considering Breslow just traded Rafael Devers, who neither fields or runs well—not exactly the archetype that Breslow wants as a franchise cornerstone. 

With all that being said, the Red Sox are currently tied for the league-lead in errors committed, a stat that can be relatively useless when considering the human element, and the wide array of defensive statistics available beyond errors. For example, the Red Sox currently rank 10th in Defensive Runs Saved (DRS) with 20, and 18th in Outs Above Average (OAA) with -4. 

Ceddanne Rafaela is easily the best defensive player on the team, and will be the center fielder in Boston for the foreseeable future. Rafaela has one of the best reaction times in baseball, while carrying 88th percentile sprint-speed and a strong throwing arm. Rafaela has gotten even better defensively this season, and his 13 OAA is tied for first in MLB. 

(Statcast)

Elsewhere in the outfield, Wilyer Abreu leads the team in five-star plays. Statcast qualifies any fly ball with a sub-25% catch probability as a five-star play, and Abreu has three of them, which ranks third in the league. Abreu is 27th league-wide in OAA, and he will have a decent chance at another Gold Glove in right field this season. Jarren Duran, on the other hand, has not replicated his solid defense from a season ago. In Duran’s defense, he has had to transition from center to left field, which is made even tougher at Fenway with the green monster. Duran currently has -5 OAA, which is worst among all Red Sox outfielders. 

The good news is that, in a small sample, Roman Anthony has demonstrated plus skills in the outfield, and should be above the 70th percentile in terms of OAA throughout his career. His defensive metrics grade out really well in right field, but Anthony will likely see more time at left in the coming years, especially if the Red Sox elect to trade Duran and hold onto Abreu.

Unfortunately, the infield has not been the same story defensively. Alex Bregman, David Hamilton, and Marcelo Mayer all have one OAA this season, and they lead all Red Sox infielders. Both Romy Gonzalez and Abraham Toro have been slightly below average at first, but neither has performed as poorly defensively as Triston Casas. That is another factor to consider with Casas’s long-term future with the team, although Breslow may be okay with one or two poor defenders on the roster if their offensive output offsets their defensive mishaps.

Trevor Story is another infielder who is just average defensively. Realistically, Marcelo Mayer will move to shortstop at some point during Story’s remaining tenure with the Red Sox. Mayer has better range, and likely a bit more arm strength, and his athleticism hasn't been sapped by years of injuries. A better shortstop will make the infield group better as a whole.

Finally, we reach Kristian Campbell, a player who has really struggled defensively this season. Although Campbell has been suitable in the outfield, he had an awful run defensively at second base earlier this season. The defense could have played a real factor in Campbell being sent down, although clearly he was struggling with the bat as well. What makes the situation especially difficult for Boston is that the outfield spots are not only full now, but in the future as well. Campbell will probably get another shot at second base, but his -5 OAA will need to improve or he will risk being a utility player who can't stick at any position.

Overall, the Red Sox are clearly trying to build an athletic defense that can stack up against the best teams in MLB. Yes the errors this season have been untimely and incredibly frustrating, but the Red Sox have some great young fielders, and the defense should only improve from here. It isn't the sexiest way to build a contending team, but a good defense can cover for a lot of holes elsewhere on the roster.

 

View full article

 

Your title is utter nonsense unless you include pitching, which is half the team and at least 75% of a team's defense.  

I also disagree with the notion of building a "super defense" when a good one is more than adequate because hitting is job 1 for the lineup players.