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    Jarren Duran Needs a Change of Scenery

    Jarren Duran was hoping to follow up his All-Star 2024 campaign this season, but it's clear that he was a one-hit wonder. It's time to accept the fact that the right move is to ship him out of Boston before his value completely crashes.

    Alex Mayes
    Image courtesy of © Tommy Gilligan-Imagn Images

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    Last week, The Athletic published a list of the top 30 trade candidates ahead of the trade deadline. The Boston Red Sox were well represented with Jarren Duran sitting in the first overall spot, Wilyer Abreu at seventh, Aroldis Chapman at 17 (as the first reliever on the list), and Walker Buehler at 19. While there are merits to trade each of these players, Duran sitting atop that list is telling, and the Red Sox need to capitalize on his position. 

    It’s no secret to fans and to teams around the league that Jarren Duran is failing to live up to the hype he built during his incredible 2024 season. He’s currently slashing .257/.309/.406 with 15 stolen bases and five home runs. He’s been demoted from full-time leadoff hitter to only leading off against right-handed pitchers, sliding down to fifth or six in the lineup against lefties. Out of all qualified hitters on the roster, Duran has the lowest wOBA against left-handed pitchers at .251. His wRC+? Also the lowest on the team among qualified hitters at 51. In short, he’s a liability at the plate when he faces a southpaw. If he’s on the roster, he would be better served as a late-inning replacement when the opposition has hopefully gone to a right-handed reliever. 

    Where the Red Sox could really stand to rid themselves on Duran, though, is on defense. As of this writing, Duran is good for one defensive run saved, -4 outs above average, and -5.4 defense runs above average. We talked about this on the latest episode of The Talk Sox Podcast, but it’s almost unfathomable how he’s gone from a Gold Glove-caliber center fielder in 2024 to the biggest defensive liability on the major league roster. Currently, Duran has five errors on the season, and you don’t have to look further than the Giants series to find errors that directly resulted in losses for the Red Sox. It would be one thing if his errors came on balls that were challenging to catch, but they often look like errors you’d see if you were watching a high school game. We’re beginning to see glimpses of the Jarren Duran who couldn’t make routine plays from yesteryear. That doesn’t bode well for the overall success of the team. While his replacement in left field won’t be up for any Gold Gloves this year, there’s room for improvement on both sides of the ball. 

    On top of everything else, moving Duran opens the door for Roman Anthony to shift to left field, which is the position he needs to be playing for the big league club. Anthony looks impressive at the plate, despite a batting average below the Mendoza line. He seems primed to break out at any point with the amount of hard contact he’s making. He looks too slow to play an effective right field in Boston, though. He’s a rookie, so I’m willing to give him a large runway to get his feet under him at the big league level, but he’s going to be most impactful in left field. He roamed right field for the WooSox, but right field there features a wall modeled after the Green Monster. It makes the most sense for the team to package Duran in a trade to upgrade the starting rotation and let Roman Anthony shift across the outfield for the position he will be playing for years to come. 

    I’ve long held the notion that the Red Sox don’t envision Jarren Duran as a building block of the future. They missed the prime chance to capitalize on his value by not trading him during the offseason, but they need to make up for that as we approach the deadline. You could argue that maybe Wilyer Abreu should be dealt instead, given his theoretical higher trade value. In reality, you want a huge arm in right field, and Duran doesn’t have one while Abreu does, plus Abreu is younger and has a higher ceiling than Duran, even if he hasn’t completely put all the pieces together like Duran did last year.

    And that's the point. Jarren Duran likely will never sniff the season he had in 2024 again. He shouldn't be long for Boston based on the extension he agreed to — that $8 million club option should be a no-brainer for another team — so it’s time to cut rank with him and give him a chance to shine in a different market.

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    2 hours ago, JerryL1042 said:

    Here's a novel idea instead of trading him have the coaching staff work with him on his weaknesses. Last time I checked that's what they are being paid to do. If they can't do their jobs maybe they should be the ones moved.

    If they dont know that's there jobs, Duran shouldn't walk away, he should run. The whole team should follow him too. Its not the coaches though, it's Cora purposely losing close games by taking pitchers out too early. Its the FO trading their best player.....just when they seem to be doing good and sweeping their arch nemesis. All of the Red Sox suck at D. Do you really think it's because of the individual players skill level? 

    4 hours ago, Bellhorn04 said:

    We don't know that they're not doing their jobs, though.  Maybe Duran just doesn't take instruction well, or maybe he has a hard time keeping his head in the game.  

    Then why was 2024 an all-star year?  Did he suddenly take instruction well and then forget how to take instruction?  Or maybe, he has issues with playing LF where he has failed on defense compared to CF and his defensive issues have carried over into his hitting.  He's made TWO errors in 550 chances in CF.  That's his normal and comfortable position.  Cora keeps putting round pegs in square holes because he has no idea what he is doing.  Fire Cora and I guarantee Duran will significantly improve, just like Sale did when he got away from Cora.

    4 hours ago, Alex Mayes said:

    I think that’s where we’re at with Duran. It seems pretty obvious last year was an outlier and this is his actual ceiling. If teams want to pay for him, send him on. 

    All your writing has bashed Duran so your comment here is no surprise.  Wake up and smell the roses.  This guy has been tortured by a prejudicial manager who isn't qualified for his job.  He overcame Cora's treatment one time, I believe he will make another comeback from Cora's idiocy again.  As soon as Duran gets comfortable being the fastest guy in the outfield playing in LF at Fenway his errors will lessen, and his hitting will return to normal. 

    Fire the buffoon manager and several players will improve immediately and some will drop off.  Those that will improve are the ones that have been treated like crap by Cora.  They include Duran, Rafaela, Campbell, Houck, Crawford, Buehler, Hendriks and Casas.  Those that will show drop-offs because the next manager won't pamper them are - Abreu, Hamilton, Wong, Bello, Whitlock, Newcomb, Bernadino and Winckowski.  Dig deep and I think you will find a theme in those names that has existed since the cheater arrived in Boston in 2018. 

    There is a very simple solution here and it doesn't involve Duran in any way!!  

    13 minutes ago, TedYazPapiMookie said:

    Then why was 2024 an all-star year?  Did he suddenly take instruction well and then forget how to take instruction?  Or maybe, he has issues with playing LF where he has failed on defense compared to CF and his defensive issues have carried over into his hitting.  He's made TWO errors in 550 chances in CF.  That's his normal and comfortable position.  Cora keeps putting round pegs in square holes because he has no idea what he is doing.  Fire Cora and I guarantee Duran will significantly improve, just like Sale did when he got away from Cora.

    Duran LF '24 611 Innings 3 OAA

    Duran LF '25 665 Innings -4 OAA

    Duran playing his natural position of CF

    2 minutes ago, TedYazPapiMookie said:

    All your writing has bashed Duran so your comment here is no surprise.  Wake up and smell the roses.  This guy has been tortured by a prejudicial manager who isn't qualified for his job.  He overcame Cora's treatment one time, I believe he will make another comeback from Cora's idiocy again. 

    This is what Cora said about Duran being selected to the ASG:

    "And we got one more. When we talk about consistency and posting and playing the game right, this guy is (expletive) amazing. We got kids here, and I bet if you want your kids to become big leaguers and play the game the right way, you're going to tell them, 'Take a look at Jarren Duran.' (expletive) All-Star."

    Talk about being tortured! That's some rough treatment! 

    To me, trading Duran over Abreu or Rafaela has always made more sense.

    Age

    Value in return

    Anthony plays LF, but can also play RF, unlike Duran.

    Jh Garcia is making a serious move is a more recent reason added on.

    What would Philly want added to Duran for us to get Painter?

    Any other young pitchers we could get for Duran & ____?

    Now, the other side of me.

    Sox fWAR leaders since 2024:

    7.5 Duran

    6.2 Devers (just traded)

    4.3 Abreu (platoon player)

    2.9 Rafaela (FT CF'er, now)

    2.5 O'Neill (gone)

    2.4 Bregman (prorates to about equal value as Duran)

    2.4 Narvaez (prorates to about equal value as Duran)

    2.1 Refsnyder (platoon player)

    1.3 DHam and 1.1 Story

    On a team with a hurting offense, here are the OPS leaders since 2024:

    .938 Bregman (BOS only)

    .883 Devers (gone)

    .851 Refsnyder (short side platoon)

    .847 O'Neill (gone)

    .795 Duran (Can't afford to trade him)

    .795 Toro (Is he for real?)

    .786 Abreu (long side platoon)

    .785 Narvaez (small sample size)

    .765 Yoshida

    .754 Romy, .730 Casas, ,712 Wong, .679 Rafaela, .662 Story

    When you factor in Duran's base stealing skills, can we really trade a top 3 offensive player, now ot this winter?

     

    15 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

    To me, trading Duran over Abreu or Rafaela has always made more sense.

    Age

    Value in return

    Anthony plays LF, but can also play RF, unlike Duran.

    Jh Garcia is making a serious move is a more recent reason added on.

    What would Philly want added to Duran for us to get Painter?

    Any other young pitchers we could get for Duran & ____?

    This is my stance as well. I’ve never once “bashed” Duran. In fact, I’ve talked at length on the podcast about how much I actually like him and how he was kind enough to have a brief conversation with me last season when the Sox were in STL.

    That being said, I want the team to improve and I’d rather have an outfield or Anthony, Rafaela, and Abreu because their collective ceiling is higher. If Davy D is willing to overpay for Duran, send him packing because it makes the team better in the long run. Duran also doesn’t have the arm to play right field or a stable centerfield at home games. 

    12 minutes ago, Alex Mayes said:

    This is my stance as well. I’ve never once “bashed” Duran. In fact, I’ve talked at length on the podcast about how much I actually like him and how he was kind enough to have a brief conversation with me last season when the Sox were in STL.

    That being said, I want the team to improve and I’d rather have an outfield or Anthony, Rafaela, and Abreu because their collective ceiling is higher. If Davy D is willing to overpay for Duran, send him packing because it makes the team better in the long run. Duran also doesn’t have the arm to play right field or a stable centerfield at home games. 

    I agree. Add to this the swift rise of Jh Garcia, Campbell looking more like a 1Bman or CF'er than a 2Bman and possible return of Refsnyder in 2026, the OF is just too crowded to not trade someone.

    Is wanting Abreu traded over Duran "bashing" him? I don't think so.

    I hate trading Duran. His speed, alone, makes him a weapon we have not seen since Ellsbury. He's also got some power and OB skills. I'm not for handing him away. I'm asking for a solid SP'er in return, and we all know how much value they have. it's actually praising Duran to say I think his value is high enough to net us a solid pitcher.

    18 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

    I agree. Add to this the swift rise of Jh Garcia, Campbell looking more like a 1Bman or CF'er than a 2Bman and possible return of Refsnyder in 2026, the OF is just too crowded to not trade someone.

    Is wanting Abreu traded over Duran "bashing" him? I don't think so.

    I hate trading Duran. His speed, alone, makes him a weapon we have not seen since Ellsbury. He's also got some power and OB skills. I'm not for handing him away. I'm asking for a solid SP'er in return, and we all know how much value they have. it's actually praising Duran to say I think his value is high enough to net us a solid pitcher.

    i have absolutely zero confidence the front office will trade him for anything worth a s***. none.

    5 hours ago, mvp 78 said:

    This is what Cora said about Duran being selected to the ASG:

    "And we got one more. When we talk about consistency and posting and playing the game right, this guy is (expletive) amazing. We got kids here, and I bet if you want your kids to become big leaguers and play the game the right way, you're going to tell them, 'Take a look at Jarren Duran.' (expletive) All-Star."

    Talk about being tortured! That's some rough treatment! 

    You're the master of bs.  You constantly write things that are taken out of context to misguide readers WOW 

    First, besides being ignorant by not referencing what I wrote about, your quote references a comment that doesn't apply to the topic discussed.  That's called "AN OUT OF CONTEXT COMMENT" which you specialize in.  The Cora reference is in relationship to him KNOWING HIS COMMENT WAS TRUE ABOUT CF but not about LF and playing him there anyway.  That makes Cora either uninformed or a total jerk, you make the choice, I think he's both.

    Second, the guy has 550 total chances in CF, and you pull up a video from when he was learning CF and lost sight of the ball, a common problem to even the best centerfielders.  I've seen Trout have the same problem, but LAA fans aren't jerks because they understand the game and every once in a long while it happens.  You, however, reference that video to humiliate a player for your own gratification?  What's wrong with you?

    The facts are 2 errors in 550 total chances.  Stick that in your library of facts so you don't embarrass yourself again about Duran and CF.  

    1 hour ago, moonslav59 said:

    To me, trading Duran over Abreu or Rafaela has always made more sense.

    Age

    Value in return

    Anthony plays LF, but can also play RF, unlike Duran.

    Jh Garcia is making a serious move is a more recent reason added on.

    What would Philly want added to Duran for us to get Painter?

    Any other young pitchers we could get for Duran & ____?

    BTV says Duran for Painter is equal value, but Philly says Painter is untouchable 

    1 hour ago, Alex Mayes said:

    This is my stance as well. I’ve never once “bashed” Duran. In fact, I’ve talked at length on the podcast about how much I actually like him and how he was kind enough to have a brief conversation with me last season when the Sox were in STL.

    That being said, I want the team to improve and I’d rather have an outfield or Anthony, Rafaela, and Abreu because their collective ceiling is higher. If Davy D is willing to overpay for Duran, send him packing because it makes the team better in the long run. Duran also doesn’t have the arm to play right field or a stable centerfield at home games. 

    I have no idea how long you've been a fan but if it's been at least 10 years then you should remember two really distinct issues that the team had over the last decade:

    1 - They lost Papi after the 2016 season and in 2017 the team was excellent under DD but there was NOBODY that could replace Papi, so DD got JD Martinez for the 2018 season and things clicked.

    2 - The great run of winning under DD happened with a kid named Mookie Betts batting lead-off.  Then in 2019 Cora screwed up with the pitchers by asking that they report 2 weeks late to Spring Training because they pitched in November.  In addition, Cora the inexperienced manager hurt the team with another off-season decision, he changed the batting order from the one that won the World Series. (ha-ha what an idiot).  He took Mookie out of the lead-off position and put Benny there.   The Red Sox struggled many games on the west coast road trip with the new line-up.  It simply didn't work not having Mookie lead off.

    Ever since Mookie was given away in 2020 the Red Sox lacked an effective lead-off man until Cora finally gave Duran a chance after he relegated him to the 9th hole in 2021 then sent him down to AAA not to resurface until June of 2022.  At that time, he proved what some of us already knew, Duran was the best possible lead-off man on the roster as well as the best base stealer and best defensive outfielder despite a couple of early issues as he got familiar with CF in Fenway.   Rafaela came up and it should have been obvious to astute baseball fans that he was nearly as fast as Duran, a comparable defender with a stronger arm so he was perfect for RF.  Cora doesn't have the baseball acumen to figure out such simple deductions so instead he weakened the defense by moving Duran to LF and putting Rafaela in CF leaving the weakest defender to compete against the really bad RF defenders where he won a GG for being the best of the worst just like Verdugo almost did when he played RF.  Abreu was fortunate to be in the right place at the right time to steal a gold glove award just like Verdugo almost did.

    Here are the two key points to this discussion:

    (1) The Lead Off spot is still Duran's because since they moved him off the spot, the team hasn't won a game

    (2) To maximize the defense Roman must player LF, Duran CF and Rafaela RF.  That leaves Refsnyder the 4th outfielder because he can face righty and lefty pitchers and not have a massive drop-off while Abreu is completely inept at facing left-handed pitchers so WHO GOES is obvious if Abreu isn't used as the DH. 

    Abreu is the obvious choice for who goes.  He has the least to offer of the five outfielders with Anthony probably having the most and Duran and Rafaela being a close 2nd and Refsnyder having the fourth most since he doesn't have to sit 40% of the time since he can hit both RH and LH pitchers unlike Abreu.

    2022-2025 OF Splits:

    v R

    .840 Duran

    .835 Abreu

    .810 Yoshida (DH only?)

    .687 Rafaela

    .683 Refsnyder

    vs L

    .927 Refsnyder

    .669 Yoshida

    .653 Rafaela

    .625 Duran

    .553 Abreu

    Defense in OF:

    DRS (Innings in OF) Player OAA

    +25 (1634) Abreu +9

    +23 (1395) Rafaela +17

    +12 (3307) Duran +4

    -4 (714) Yoshida -9

    -8 (1407) Refsnyder -9

    9 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

    That's the scary thing.

    Standing pat looks scary, too.

    Like all GM's there's risk. Breslow traded for Crochet, Narvaez and O'Neil. But he also traded for Grissom and Danny Jansen and the bullpen boys last year. 

    There's always a risk.

    4 hours ago, curbsidecorgi67 said:

    How the f*** did we go from Jarren Duran getting MVP votes to Jarren Duran the "late inning replacement" in the span of 80 games. 

     

     

    Late bloomer - one exceptional season - seems to have focus issues.

    But there are probably bigger questions lurking about the Sox coaching and player development, questions it's pretty hard for any of us to answer.

    11 hours ago, TedYazPapiMookie said:

    I have no idea how long you've been a fan but if it's been at least 10 years then you should remember two really distinct issues that the team had over the last decade:

    1 - They lost Papi after the 2016 season and in 2017 the team was excellent under DD but there was NOBODY that could replace Papi, so DD got JD Martinez for the 2018 season and things clicked.

    2 - The great run of winning under DD happened with a kid named Mookie Betts batting lead-off.  Then in 2019 Cora screwed up with the pitchers by asking that they report 2 weeks late to Spring Training because they pitched in November.  In addition, Cora the inexperienced manager hurt the team with another off-season decision, he changed the batting order from the one that won the World Series. (ha-ha what an idiot).  He took Mookie out of the lead-off position and put Benny there.   The Red Sox struggled many games on the west coast road trip with the new line-up.  It simply didn't work not having Mookie lead off.

    Ever since Mookie was given away in 2020 the Red Sox lacked an effective lead-off man until Cora finally gave Duran a chance after he relegated him to the 9th hole in 2021 then sent him down to AAA not to resurface until June of 2022.  At that time, he proved what some of us already knew, Duran was the best possible lead-off man on the roster as well as the best base stealer and best defensive outfielder despite a couple of early issues as he got familiar with CF in Fenway.   Rafaela came up and it should have been obvious to astute baseball fans that he was nearly as fast as Duran, a comparable defender with a stronger arm so he was perfect for RF.  Cora doesn't have the baseball acumen to figure out such simple deductions so instead he weakened the defense by moving Duran to LF and putting Rafaela in CF leaving the weakest defender to compete against the really bad RF defenders where he won a GG for being the best of the worst just like Verdugo almost did when he played RF.  Abreu was fortunate to be in the right place at the right time to steal a gold glove award just like Verdugo almost did.

    Here are the two key points to this discussion:

    (1) The Lead Off spot is still Duran's because since they moved him off the spot, the team hasn't won a game

    (2) To maximize the defense Roman must player LF, Duran CF and Rafaela RF.  That leaves Refsnyder the 4th outfielder because he can face righty and lefty pitchers and not have a massive drop-off while Abreu is completely inept at facing left-handed pitchers so WHO GOES is obvious if Abreu isn't used as the DH. 

    Abreu is the obvious choice for who goes.  He has the least to offer of the five outfielders with Anthony probably having the most and Duran and Rafaela being a close 2nd and Refsnyder having the fourth most since he doesn't have to sit 40% of the time since he can hit both RH and LH pitchers unlike Abreu.

    The only thing I’ll respond to here is your first point. They haven’t lost every game Duran hasn’t be the lead off hitter. In fact, they swept the Yankees while he wasn’t leading off. 

    2 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

    DD doesn't care about prospects that much. He cares about winning now. 

    Also, I was listening to him on The Athletics' Starskville pod. They're in love with their pitching - he ain't giving any up, and he said they want a RH bat and pen help.

    4 minutes ago, Hitch said:

    Also, I was listening to him on The Athletics' Starskville pod. They're in love with their pitching - he ain't giving any up, and he said they want a RH bat and pen help.

    If he wants a guy that can OPS 975+ vs LHP, we got a few of those. Probably don't cost much.  

    1 hour ago, Bellhorn04 said:

    Late bloomer - one exceptional season - seems to have focus issues.

    But there are probably bigger questions lurking about the Sox coaching and player development, questions it's pretty hard for any of us to answer.

    Ellsbury reincarnated.

    3 hours ago, Alex Mayes said:

    The only thing I’ll respond to here is your first point. They haven’t lost every game Duran hasn’t be the lead off hitter. In fact, they swept the Yankees while he wasn’t leading off. 

    True.  I worked backwards from our last game.  I forgot the goofy line-up against the Yankees.  We catch the Yankees the last several years when they are weak early in the season and then get clobbered late.  Let's hope in Sept he runs that same line-up out there to prove the point.  He needs Duran at the top of the order.  The 3-game sample size of success versus the 4 games sample size of losses is still a lower winning percentage than when Duran is the leadoff man.  I do apologize for the oversight on the Yankee series.  I should have gone back farther.  Once I saw Duran at the leadoff spot I stopped.

    It's disappointing to not get your input on the second point but as a writer you are trying to please the masses and lots of folks are extremely vocal about the second topic.  Thanks for your answer and please realize that when your choices are limited and the team has failed badly prior to Duran, staying with Duran and supporting him rather than tearing him down would be the smart way to go for the manager and fans.

    18 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

    Now, the other side of me.

    Sox fWAR leaders since 2024:

    7.5 Duran

    6.2 Devers (just traded)

    4.3 Abreu (platoon player)

    2.9 Rafaela (FT CF'er, now)

    2.5 O'Neill (gone)

    2.4 Bregman (prorates to about equal value as Duran)

    2.4 Narvaez (prorates to about equal value as Duran)

    2.1 Refsnyder (platoon player)

    1.3 DHam and 1.1 Story

    On a team with a hurting offense, here are the OPS leaders since 2024:

    .938 Bregman (BOS only)

    .883 Devers (gone)

    .851 Refsnyder (short side platoon)

    .847 O'Neill (gone)

    .795 Duran (Can't afford to trade him)

    .795 Toro (Is he for real?)

    .786 Abreu (long side platoon)

    .785 Narvaez (small sample size)

    .765 Yoshida

    .754 Romy, .730 Casas, ,712 Wong, .679 Rafaela, .662 Story

    When you factor in Duran's base stealing skills, can we really trade a top 3 offensive player, now ot this winter?

     

    keep subtracting offensive talent, keep being stuck in neutral.

    1 hour ago, drewski6 said:

    keep subtracting offensive talent, keep being stuck in neutral.

    I totally agree, and even if Duran never comes close to these numbers, again, he will still likely be a top 5-6 offensive player on this team: better than Rafaela, better than the kids, for at least a year or two, better than Story and better than a Narvaez-Wong combo. Better than Casas.

    Only Bregman and the Abreu-Ref look like sure bets at being batter at the plate. Duran's speed might jump him over those two for total offensive value, going forward.

    Trading our 2nd or 3rd best offensive player needs to bring back a very special player, and they we have to cross our fingers on Rafaela, Abreu, Anthony, Garcia or maybe Ref/Masa/Campbell.

    That being said, I have to think about this:

    We trade Duran, Romero and Sandlin for a solid Pitcher. How much is that upgrade worth over Buehler or Fitts? Now, weigh that vs the downgrade from Duran in LF to Anthony/Garcia/Campbell. One could argue, it's worth the trade.

    39 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

    I totally agree, and even if Duran never comes close to these numbers, again, he will still likely be a top 5-6 offensive player on this team: better than Rafaela

    Duran and Rafaela are neck and neck right now with Rafaela playing GG defense and Duran playing LL defense. 




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