Is Kristian Campbell The Answer To The Red Sox's First Base Problem?

Campbell/Mayer combo is better than Sogard/Campbell.

We get 2 of the 3 Sox prospects on board. Sogard does not have a future in Sox organization. 

4 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

Are you sure you don't want to try to defend being a Jhostynxon superfan for 5 years? I was looking forward to that post! 😸

Me too :/

What about Trottsy Nixon?

1 hour ago, mvp 78 said:

Story's Fldg Pct at SS in MiLB

ROOK 915

Low A 949

High A 957

AA 954/963

AAA 976

It clearly takes a player a while to adjust to playing SS professionally AND the fields at the lower levels are awful.

Campbell is not a good SS. He has a weak arm and poor range for SS. If he is struggling currently at 2b, how much worse would it get at SS? 

I was looking at this earlier and was going to save it for later. 
 

1/4 of all of Mayers errors were literally his first handful of games as an 18 year old in the FCL.  I feel disgusting even talking about fielding percentage.

also comparing him to the best prospect in all of baseball is completely unfair.  Not sure what Anthony having higher offensive potential means about Mayers defense and the prospect of moving to 1B.

I have to give credit for the unique takes we see here.

4 hours ago, mvp 78 said:

Story's Fldg Pct at SS in MiLB

ROOK 915

Low A 949

High A 957

AA 954/963

AAA 976

It clearly takes a player a while to adjust to playing SS professionally AND the fields at the lower levels are awful.

Campbell is not a good SS. He has a weak arm and poor range for SS. If he is struggling currently at 2b, how much worse would it get at SS? 

Or maybe Story's pattern just fits your argument because Mayer has the following data:

2021 partial ROK season 70 chances .857

2022 A and Hi-A 306 chances .961 (peak season before partial 2025 season)

2023 Hi-A and AA 236 chances .958 (dropped 3 points after 376 chances prior to 2023)

2024 AA 212 chances .953 (dropped another 5 points with 236 more chances under his belt!!)

2025 AAA 104 chances .981 (a bit too early to project the full season since his last season was .953)

Looks like Mayer's history is regressing not adapting and improving like you suggest.

That's probably why we see things so differently.  Campbell's .971 in the minors is a fact so to call him "not a good SS" has no basis in fact.   I'd use a phrase that you used on me, but I don't want to be petty. 

One other key point you overlooked is that Story played 2B, SS and 3B and was NOT a dedicated SS like Mayer.  His history more resembled Campbell's short stint in the minors but Story was there 5 years and Campbell just two years.  Also, if you look back at his Perfect Game prospect reports about his arm they completely disagree with your comments about not being strong enough.   

Here is yet another key item that was inaccurate in your comments, THIS SEASON in 2025 at 2B Campbell's fielding percentage is .979.  If you call that struggling that's crazy talk.  .979 is excellent for a rookie adapting to a new position he's nowhere near as familiar with as SS.   He's also played LF and CF flawlessly so far which speaks to what an incredible athlete he is and further validates his Minor League Player of the Year award.  That's why he makes the most sense at shortstop should the team choose not to continue with the $70Million dollar man.

2 hours ago, notin said:

Ok time for some perspective.

 

A while back you called out moon for referencing 700 plays by saying “no one makes that many plays in a season,” which, first of all, isn’t true.  It’s been done ( for example Ozzie Smith made 909 plays in 1980 (621 assists, 288 putouts).

 

But to call .961 to .958 regression.  It’s a difference of 3 errors PER 1,000 CHANCES! And in the minors, where Mayer was playing 600+ innings per year and getting 300-400 chances per year, it takes multiple years to make 1,000 chances.  So you’re talking about a different 1 error per year and calling it “regression.”
 

And a fielding percentage on 70 chances is useless.   A single error is worth 0.014.  Thats a big change on a single play.  There’s a reason guys with 70 at bats don’t qualify for a batting title…

Hahaha got quite the chuckle out of this response.  Thanks.

First you try to call me out for pointing out that using the single greatest number of plays in a season wasn't technically incorrect without acknowledging how incredibly absurd it is to use the single biggest outlier example to prove a point about normalization of data in a faulty formula.

Then you try to suggest that me pointing out that Story's learning curve while playing three positons was similar and even common for young SSs because it takes time to develop in the minors while Mayer has best case been similar while slightly regressing over 3 seasons in the minors.

Your rationalization skills are epic!!! hahaha

2 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

The league Fldg% at 2B is .985 and Campbell is at .979.

That places him 24th out of the top 30 second basemen in innings at 2B.

Any plays he makes that nobody else can even dream of making are all measured by Fldg %, so...

😝

The guy has had 103 plays at 2B at the MLB level in his rookie season.  Is your expectation perfection?  The guy is a SS forced to play 2B.  He put up a .980 fielding percentage at 2B in in 2024 after a .977 at 2B in 2023 the year he was drafted.   League average at 2B in 2025 is 2 points higher than his current fielding percentage.  Wake up and smell the roses.  You a criticizing a rookie for being 2 points below league average at a relatively new position.  And who cares if he is 24th out of 30 in innings at 2B?  He's playing LF and CF as well for the team.  You act as if that fact doesn't make him more a superstar than a slug you are trying to wrongfully suggest.  You simply don't have a clue about baseball and based on the way Notin speaks up for you I'm guessing you are a kid trying to discuss baseball with adults so I'll end with 4 points.

1 - The league fielding percentage for 2025 is actually .981 not .985 so next time get your numbers right

2 - This stud prospect should be complimented by a Red Sox fan for doing an incredible job in his first year while playing 3 other positions other than his primary position of SS.

3 - He doesn't need inaccurate bonus points from a metric to see that he is an exceptional player.  His fielding percentage says it all.  This kid has talent coming out of ears.  He can hit, field, run and play almost anywhere on the field at a league average level in his first 42 games in the MLB.   Cue the loud applauds!!!

4 - Now the kid needs to learn his most critical skill and that is dealing with adversity.  Every great minor league player has to learn this when they only have success prior to getting to the MLB.  Harper struggled with it, Griffey struggled with and even Trout struggled with it but once they figured it out, wow, they never looked back and became superstars.

6 hours ago, mvp 78 said:

MLB:

317 Innings 2B

0 Innings SS

MILB:

420 Innings 2B

298 Innings SS

College

24 G 2B

0 G SS

 

 

Try to remember this kid is young.  Four years of high school ball at SS and I found a quote for you about his High School career that ended in 2020 the COVID year.

 In high school, he lettered in baseball and helped his team win the Region 5 Division 7A Championship in 2019. In 2020, he batted .373 with a .572 on base percentage and 30 stolen bases

If you know anything about elite baseball at the High School level in Georgia you would understand just how good a SS he was to play on the 7A division champion's team.  Then, with a shortened season in 2020 he was remarkable as a SS.  In addition, check out the East Cobb team he played his select baseball on for Perfect Game.  To earn the starting SS position on that team is a hugh accomplishment because East Cobb teams recruit all over the country.  

Here is another source about Campbell:

Campbell attended George Walton Comprehensive High School in Marietta, Georgia. He lettered in baseball all four years of high school.

In 2023, he slashed .376/.484/.549 in 45 games, walking 29 times and getting hit by a pitch 11 times while striking out only 17 times.^[1] He was named a freshman All-American by Collegiate Baseball.^[4]

^{So this kid played SS four years in HS while playing elite select baseball for one of Perfect Games top teams as a Shortstop.  Went to college got redshirted so he went to a summer league program similar to the Cape Cod League and completely tore it up earning him the starting 2nd base spot due to an incombent SS at Georgia Tech.  He puts up great numbers again, earns freshman All-American honors and finally gets drafted and THEN all of the above that you wrote happens.  You minimalized his SS experience to bias the argument but it didn't work.}

^{Campbell was an under the radar guy until he proved that his lifelong trend of being excellent at baseball got noticed big time last year and yet you still take shots at him because he has so many seasons at SS during his high school years playing for an elite high school programs.  Did you know that Arenado, M Chapman and Skenes all played in a select High School program in California similar to the ones Campbell played for in Georgia?  It's not easy to win a starting spot in the elite high school programs around the country but Campbell did it as a Shortstop not a 2B.  He had to learn 2B after high school which is why he's a SS who has been converted by Boston to play 2B along with 2 outfield positions and now 1B.   In the end, as long as Story is owed $70 Million it doesn't much matter whether Campbell's superior skills at SS are recognized by people like you, he's going to be used elsewhere because he's the best athlete in the bunch with the most innate skills on defense to be able to play most positions at a league average level or higher in the MLB.} 

^{It is simply amazing that Red Sox fans want to sell him so short despite all his accolades.  Mayer doesn't have any like Campbell has earned recently and in High School.  Mayer's successes are prior to the draft and need to start happening now since it's 5 years later!!} 

20 minutes ago, TedYazPapiMookie said:

Try to remember this kid is young.  Four years of high school ball at SS and I found a quote for you about his High School career that ended in 2020 the COVID year.

 In high school, he lettered in baseball and helped his team win the Region 5 Division 7A Championship in 2019. In 2020, he batted .373 with a .572 on base percentage and 30 stolen bases

If you know anything about elite baseball at the High School level in Georgia you would understand just how good a SS he was to play on the 7A division champion's team.  Then, with a shortened season in 2020 he was remarkable as a SS.  In addition, check out the East Cobb team he played his select baseball on for Perfect Game.  To earn the starting SS position on that team is a hugh accomplishment because East Cobb teams recruit all over the country.  

Here is another source about Campbell:

Campbell attended George Walton Comprehensive High School in Marietta, Georgia. He lettered in baseball all four years of high school.

In 2023, he slashed .376/.484/.549 in 45 games, walking 29 times and getting hit by a pitch 11 times while striking out only 17 times.^[1] He was named a freshman All-American by Collegiate Baseball.^[4]

^{So this kid played SS four years in HS while playing elite select baseball for one of Perfect Games top teams as a Shortstop.  Went to college got redshirted so he went to a summer league program similar to the Cape Cod League and completely tore it up earning him the starting 2nd base spot due to an incombent SS at Georgia Tech.  He puts up great numbers again, earns freshman All-American honors and finally gets drafted and THEN all of the above that you wrote happens.  You minimalized his SS experience to bias the argument but it didn't work.}

^{Campbell was an under the radar guy until he proved that his lifelong trend of being excellent at baseball got noticed big time last year and yet you still take shots at him because he has so many seasons at SS during his high school years playing for an elite high school programs.  Did you know that Arenado, M Chapman and Skenes all played in a select High School program in California similar to the ones Campbell played for in Georgia?  It's not easy to win a starting spot in the elite high school programs around the country but Campbell did it as a Shortstop not a 2B.  He had to learn 2B after high school which is why he's a SS who has been converted by Boston to play 2B along with 2 outfield positions and now 1B.   In the end, as long as Story is owed $70 Million it doesn't much matter whether Campbell's superior skills at SS are recognized by people like you, he's going to be used elsewhere because he's the best athlete in the bunch with the most innate skills on defense to be able to play most positions at a league average level or higher in the MLB.} 

^{It is simply amazing that Red Sox fans want to sell him so short despite all his accolades.  Mayer doesn't have any like Campbell has earned recently and in High School.  Mayer's successes are prior to the draft and need to start happening now since it's 5 years later!!} 

Oh for crying out loud, 99.9% of right handed infielders in the majors played ss in high school.  Most get moved upon signing a minor league contract or a college scholarship.

With your background, you surely know that.

1 hour ago, illinoisredsox said:

Oh for crying out loud, 99.9% of right handed infielders in the majors played ss in high school.  Most get moved upon signing a minor league contract or a college scholarship.

With your background, you surely know that.

Yes I do but what I don't know  is your point.  People had documented that in the last two years that Campbell played 2B and all I did was point out that for the four years prior to that he was a SS exclusively.  His move to 2B in college had nothing to do with his SS abilities, he was a freshman going against a senior starting SS.  When he came to Boston Mayer was supposed to be the SS of the future but his struggles forced Boston to move Campbell back to his normal position in case Mayer's issues with injuries and mediocre play continued.  In 2024 Mayer finally played like he was supposed to the prior 3 years and so Campbell looked to be a 2B at the MLB level but then once again Mayer got hurt and didn't get any AAA time in 2024. 

At this point with Campbell out playing Mayer prior to the start of the 2025 season I think Campbell should be considered the SS of the future and Mayer might catch on as the 3B of the future if Bregman opts out or he could be the 1B of the future if he can adapt to 1B like Campbell has had to adapt to 2B and two outfield positions.  As the better defender and overall player Campbell should be shown the respect he deserves from the front office regardless of where Mayer was drafted back in 2021 four years ago.

You just need to follow the string to understand why I pointed out he's a converted SS.  I know it happens all the time and Campbell has been a victim of bad timing.  In college, if the senior had graduated, he would have played SS like he did in HS and at Perfect Game.  If he had played SS in college then he would have been drafted as a SS not a 2B because he played there one year in college and all the Red Sox fans would realize he's a converted SS not a 2B.  That was the purpose of my post.  Folks like facts so I provided his history of SS and why it was just bad timing that he ended up at 2B in college.  Frankly, wherever Boston needs him he will willing go there and do the best job possible.   He's an excellent young man who came through High School and college with very little recognition unlike Mayer who was great in High School 5 years ago but hasn't done much since.

I hope this explains why I documented his history.  You are 100% right that High School shortstops go in many, many directions after they graduate.  Pitching is even on the paths they might take like Hunter Greene, who was an excellent high school shortstop.

1 hour ago, moonslav59 said:

700 plays in not an outlier. 909 might be.

Plus, my point wasn't about 700; it was about 100-150 more plays than other SSs. Make it 600 vs 450-500.

Also, I mentioned the serious flaws with RF/9 and wht that went to the curb after Fldg% did.

It's about how many playable balls are hit at someone, and how many player A makes vs player B, and the difficulty factor involved. It's about statues vs real defensive players.

I understand.  You like speed and I like sure hands.  Sometimes you get both.

Measuring the times a ball gets hit to you has a lot more to do with the pitcher vs the hitter than the range of a defender.  Also, each is a one-time event so extrapolation isn't valid.  Every play will always be unique throwing each one into a bucket completely depends on the bucket and the person deciding which bucket.  That's call "being arbitrary".  That's why defensive metrics have varied by the source and to validate the metric concept of false information the individual sources add prefixes like r and others to distinguish why the same metric can't be calculated uniformly across the industry. 

52 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

Not good enough to beat out a college senior SS, but should be an MLB SS. It can’t be both.

I get it.  You never played so you have no idea what I'm talking about and how often it happens.

45 minutes ago, notin said:

Did you read the post you responded to?  I never mentioned Trevor Story.  I didn’t even use the word story to descibe a narrative or the floor of a building…

At the time I wrote my response the comment above related to Story.  The way the website sequences these comments is very different from the other sites I've been on.  Indentations for responses are more uniform.

I apologize if someone else made the comments.  I'm sure they know who it was and why I responded as I did.