A Realistic View at the 2027 Red Sox Part I

[moonslav59]

37 minutes ago, Behindenemylines said:

The biggest need is still a right-handed power bat. If Gray walks (I think he will) he will need to be replaced. The Sox have a team that can make the playoffs, but to make a run in October more fine tuning will need to be done.

I think a LHB is needed more, but one of both would be even nicer.

Team OPS:

.734 v L (.722 v games with LH SP)

.710 v R (.715 v games with RH SP)

The gap is SLG (.024) is more than OBP (.009.) Much less power v RHPs.

While this looks pretty close, look at the splits by players:

v RHPs (returning players listed w 100+ PAs)

.902 Gasper (may start 2027 on IL)

.878 Contreras

.817 Anthony

,816 Mead w WSH

.784 Seigler

.743 Yoshida

.742 Rafaela

.735 Abreu

.716 Durbin

.693 Sogard

.648 AR (2 teams) .747 career

.633 Duran

.631 Wong

.615 Story

.602 Monasterio

(If Casas returns, he could help v RHPs)
Maybe 4 Good batters and 4-5 okay batters. (Maybe Abreu can be counted as good, if he is more like career.)

v LHPs (60+ PAs)

1.058 Jones (not sure he can keep this up)

.966 Contreras

.897 Mead w WSH

.854 Abreu (first reverse split season in career)

.813 Sogard

.811 Rafaela

.791 AR (2 teams)

.722 Monasterio

.711 Wong

.696 Durbin

.648 AR (2 teams) Career .767

.636 Story

.608 Duran (should not start v LHPs)

.588 Anthony (an outlier)

(Romy has been great v LHPs but was injured)

Maybe 5 good batters and maybe 3-5 okay batters, counting Romy, Anthony and AR (maybe Story) doing better.

 

[moonslav59]

Perhaps the best batters on the market?

RHB/LHB

1. de la Curz

(Lindor, KMarte, Happ)

LHB

1. Sato

2. Abrams

3. B Lowe (bad splits v LHPs)

RHB

1. Suzuki

2. Neto

3. Torres

[moonslav59]

In short, our losses via free agency seem very manageable over the next few years:

Gray- this winter

AR & Chapman- next winter

Contreras & Whitlock after 2028.

Abreu & Miller after 2029.

Every other significant player is under control for 4 or more years.

This is not a call to stand pat: it is the opposite. Now is the time to pounce. We lose some big salaries in the next year or two. We need to go for it.

Big and Bold.

Large and Long.

[southpaw777]

On 10/1/2026 at 3:29 PM, moonslav59 said:

 

Tough way to end the season. That magical stretch was just that: magic. It’s difficult to think about next year, so soon, and there are so many unanswered questions and unknowns- many centered around injured players or players that had better or worse than expected 2026 seasons. There are not many FAs lost issues, except Gray. It could be a huge loss, but it’s really just one. IKF & Sandoval are not significant losses.

I’ll get into budget issues later on, but wanted to start off with what the roster and foundation look like going into 2027. IMO, the 26 man roster will involve some tough choices as some players are out of options, paid handsomely or coming off the IL to a slot that is already filled. If we make the minimum 2-3 additions I think are needed, that will further squeeze the 26. I’m not too worried about the 40 man roster crunch, even if we add 3 new players. It’s not that I dislike our “bubble players,” but I don’t think we need to worry about cutting a few loose or trading some. Each winter, Brez seems to trade away a bunch of these types for prospects or same level players.

Before any changes are made, here is what I see is the likely 26 man roster. I’m going to put Gray, but only because I feel strongly that we will bring him back or try to replace him in kind. (I’ll go with Arias in AAA, since he is not a Rule 5 guy and can wait to be added. I’d prefer he start the year as out FT SS.) I’m also assuming Duran is gone, but if he’s back, one from Jones or White will be traded, since both are out of options.

SP: Tolle, Crochet, Gray, Suarez, Bennett

RP: Chapman, Whitlock, Miller, Bello, Slaten, Guerrero, Houck, Moran (no options)

C: Rutschman & Wong

1B: Contreras

2B: Mead

3B: Durbin & Sogard

SS: Story

LF: Anthony, Jones

CF: Rafaela, White

RF: Abreu

DH: Yoshida

The rest of the 40 could be… (14 in AAA/AA)

9: Oviedo, Crawford, Weissert, Romy, Monasterio, Gasper, Campbell, Gamboa, Paez

5 from:

Trade/DFA: Duran, Casas, Eaton, Cheng, Rivera, Samaniego, Kelly, Burgos, Olds

Rule 5: Brannon, Jo Garcia, Wehunt, Ward (Ro Hernandez, Mullins, Romero/Rogers)

If and when we do add players (assuming no 1-for-1 trades, we will need to bump others down. I think we’ll trade Duran and maybe Story (add Arias) or Yoshida (add Casas.) We’ll add Brannon, Jo Garcia and Wehunt to the 40. We’ll keep Eaton, Cheng, Rivera and Samaniego.

The last point I will hit on for the kick-off post is this: Where is our biggest need areas and who might we bump out of a starting slot or significant role?

Most likely players to hold slots/roles (in order of most likely to return) :

Everyday:

CF Rafaela

1B Contreras

RF Abreu

C Rutschman

2B/DH Mead

3B Durbin

DH/LF Anthony (is higher on list but injury drops him)

This leaves SS (Arias, Story, Monasterio, Cheng) and LF/DH (Yoshida, Jones, White, Campbell, Gasper-Jones, Sogard-Romy) as the most upgradeable positions.

Pitching

SP1 Crochet

SP2 Tolle

SP3 Gray (or replacement)

SP4 Bennett

SP5 Suarez

Closer Chapman

RP2 Whitlock

SP/RP Bello

RP3 Miller

SP/RP Houck

SP/RP Crawford & Oviedo

RP: Slaten, Moran & Weissert

Maybe we bring Gray back or sign Nick Martinez, King or Morejon.

I hope there is no prolonged lock-out, and we have a productive off season. I’m glad we extended Brez & Tracy. From 2020 to 2023, the Sox went 2 under .500. Under Brez, we’ve been +26 games in 3 seasons. Although we had less wins in 2026 than 2025, I think the team got better, at least on paper- before all the injuries.

Let’s hope JH is willing to spend, and Brez still has the good trade mojo. Let's bring Gray or someone like him back. Let's add a nice pen piece (Morejon?) and a big bat (____???_____.)

 

I can see them not giving arb to Houck (projected 4.1m) Crawford (2.3m) Oviedo (1.8m) and Casas (1.8m)

I can see pretty much all the first year arb guys getting deals.

Duran Story and Yoshida need be traded. Arias should be our SS.
I don’t see Gray coming back. I see them maybe using Bello, although I’d try and move him as well. They could also sign one of the many back end rotation arms available for less than Sonny Gray on the FA market. Lots of options for that 5th spot. I do like Gray a lot and would give him a nice deal. He’s earned it IMO, but I don’t see them doing that unfortunately.

my big sign… I want Arozarena. Great fit. We NEED some power. They’ll have to Get him for at least his age 32-35. But I believe This guy will hit 30hr in Fenway, hit a bunch of 2bs and probably raise his BA a little. He can trade DH/LF with Anthony. Perfect fit IYAM. I’m not afraid of a 35 yo player. Not this guy at least. 
and after the haul they gave away for him, resigning Adley for 4+ years makes sense. He’ll be 29 next year. He’s still young and we don’t have anyone who will possibly be ready at Catcher until maybe 2029. I believe he would give us good production if he can stay healthy.

theres really not much to get except a big legit power bat, a RH starter, resigning Adley and getting rid of some wasted roster spots worth about 60m in potential payroll. Gives us money for Adley and Arozarena and some arbitration cases.

our farm looks really good. I expect a lot of promotions this year for a number of players. Primera, Goodbout, Hull, Schaffner, and Gonzales with a few names from 11-30 to keep an eye on as well. 
overall this team will be in a good position moving forward with a few needed moves this offseason. Not sure 2027 is going to happen. I hope they can work things out. Cap, floor, profit sharing. We’ll see. 

 

[moonslav59]

3 hours ago, southpaw777 said:

I can see them not giving arb to Houck (projected 4.1m) Crawford (2.3m) Oviedo (1.8m) and Casas (1.8m)

I can see pretty much all the first year arb guys getting deals.

Duran Story and Yoshida need be traded. Arias should be our SS.
I don’t see Gray coming back. I see them maybe using Bello, although I’d try and move him as well. They could also sign one of the many back end rotation arms available for less than Sonny Gray on the FA market. Lots of options for that 5th spot. I do like Gray a lot and would give him a nice deal. He’s earned it IMO, but I don’t see them doing that unfortunately.

my big sign… I want Arozarena. Great fit. We NEED some power. They’ll have to Get him for at least his age 32-35. But I believe This guy will hit 30hr in Fenway, hit a bunch of 2bs and probably raise his BA a little. He can trade DH/LF with Anthony. Perfect fit IYAM. I’m not afraid of a 35 yo player. Not this guy at least. 
and after the haul they gave away for him, resigning Adley for 4+ years makes sense. He’ll be 29 next year. He’s still young and we don’t have anyone who will possibly be ready at Catcher until maybe 2029. I believe he would give us good production if he can stay healthy.

theres really not much to get except a big legit power bat, a RH starter, resigning Adley and getting rid of some wasted roster spots worth about 60m in potential payroll. Gives us money for Adley and Arozarena and some arbitration cases.

our farm looks really good. I expect a lot of promotions this year for a number of players. Primera, Goodbout, Hull, Schaffner, and Gonzales with a few names from 11-30 to keep an eye on as well. 
overall this team will be in a good position moving forward with a few needed moves this offseason. Not sure 2027 is going to happen. I hope they can work things out. Cap, floor, profit sharing. We’ll see. 

 

Our farm is no longer that good, but we do have Arias, Gonzo & (far away) Primera.

Some say Arozarena is not a fit and is a head case. I'm not sure.

I agree on trying to shed Duran, Yoshida and Story and add some budget space.