These Four Players Hold the Keys to Red Sox's Trade Deadline Plans

[Alex Mayes]

In a turn of events that was so improbable Hollywood would have rejected the script just a month ago, the Boston Red Sox have rattled off a 13-game winning streak and are firmly in the American League Wild Card picture. After sweeping the first series of the second half against the Tampa bay Rays, they certainly have their eye on continuing the hot streak as we progress through the end of July. If things keep up on this track, then Craig Breslow will be keen to add pieces as the trade deadline approaches. That happening though, hinges on these four players not buckling under the pressure that leading a playoff-bound team comes with. 

#4: 3B Caleb Durbin

Who would have thought that after the first two months of the season, Durbin would be looked at as a make-or-break player. After a couple of days off in late May, he has been on a tear at the plate. He’s currently slashing .236/.299/.392 with a .304 wOBA, 89 wRC+, and a 1.4 fWAR. While the slash line doesn’t look overly impressive, remember he was hitting well below the Mendoza line for weeks when the season got underway. He’s been Gold Glove worthy at third base on defense all year, and now that his bat is finally coming around, he’s one of the most valuable pieces on this team. While he’s not a pure power threat, he can drive the ball out of the yard with relative ease. His strength lies in his ability to get on base though, and while we’d like to see a higher walk rate than his current 6.6%, we’re not going to complain too hard. A couple of months ago, we hosted a livestream of the Talk Sox Podcast with Brewer Fanatic’s Jason Wang and Jake McKibbin. During it, Jake told us that we’d love Caleb Durbin eventually this season. At the time we thought he was crazy -- now, we’re finding out that Brewers fans are just as prescient as the team they root for.

#3: LHP Payton Tolle

It may feel a bit weird to include the rookie southpaw on this list, but he essentially plugs in as the number three starter for this team and needs to remain rock solid on the mound as he prepares to fly past his career high in innings. Tolle currently holds a 3.11 ERA with over 84 innings pitched with a strikeout percentage of 25.5%, a walk rate of 7.3%, a 3.23 FIP, and 2.1 fWAR. He had a couple of shaky starts this season and for the first quarter of the year, the offense seemed allergic to letting him win games when he was on the bump, but we seem to be beyond both issues at this point.

Where the pressure lies for the youngster is in his pitch mix. He throws the ‘Three-Headed Monster of Hard’ with his fastball combination of a four-seam, sinker, and cutter, but when he’s operating at his full capacity, he’s featuring a devastating curveball that keeps hitters off balance and off rhythm. If he continues to be the dominant starter we’ve come to expect, then the biggest strength of the Red Sox will continue to propel them forward. If he runs into a second half wall, though, then it could be tough sledding for an injury-depleted starting rotation.

#2: OF Wilyer Abreu

We all expect Abreu to play Gold Glove defense in right field on a daily basis, but the steps he’s taken against left-handed pitching for the 2026 season have shown us just how special of a player he can be. Against southpaws in 2026, Abreu is slashing .345/.421/.527 with a .411 wOBA, and 162 wRC+. To put it simply, he’s been incredible against them. When facing a righty though, the numbers look vastly different. He’s slashing .227/.295/.406 with a .303 wOBA, and an 88 wRC+.

To be able to help push the team in the right direction as they look to buy heading into the trade deadline, Abreu has to find his footing against righties moving forward. Luckily, he seems to have maybe done that early in the second half as he took Griffin Jax deep for two home runs in the first game back out of the All-Star Break. 

#1: 1B Willson Contreras

The heartbeat of the offense, the leader on the field. Contreras has been as advertised since being brought over from the Cardinals. The Sox played great baseball while he was suspended for the altercation he was a part of against the Nationals, but the team goes as Contreras goes. When he slumps, it seems like the rest of the lineup is slumping. When he’s hot, as he’s been much of this season, everything in front of and behind him seems to click.

On top of being an excellent offensive player, Contreras has settled first base in a way that hasn’t been seen in years in Boston. He’s smooth, picks anything near him, and now we no longer have to worry about the cold corner being a defensive black hole. As long as he continues to play well on both sides of the ball, the Red Sox are going to be in a great spot as we approach the trade deadline.

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[JerseyJoey]

I would agree that these 4 players are a critical part of the RedSox success this year (amazing!), but NOT "Key to their trading plans".   The ones you listed aren't going anywhere.

Durbin, Abreu and Contreras are rock-solid, irreplaceable at their positions.  Tolle is one of many SP's, but as written, one of the Top 3 (given current injuries).   Tough start last night, but a few of those groundball singles could have been outs if a a few degrees left or right.  Had plenty of swings & misses too.

Much likely to be "Key to their trading plans" are the players who are either

a) trade-able, replacement parts or prospects -- A "spare" SP (pick one):  Sandoval, even Bennett, and maybe Rivera;  Or perhaps a SS/Inf:  perhaps Cheng or Monasteria (if the Never-Health Story returns)

b) player that are replaceable due to their lack of production -- Duran, who we all want to root for, and is showing signs of life, but is a black-hole in the line-up at a position that needs to be productive offensively. 

Those much smarter than me haven't come up with the obvious (a RH power hitter) to the roster that Breslow should trade for.  Heck, they/we were hoping for the same thing in February, even as Boras/Soros led St. Alex to the Cubs and bestowed a $175m on his aging backside.                                    So who you going to get instead?   Pete Alonso?  Aaron Judge?

Breslow likes pitching and he's done quite well there . . . so I wouldn't bet against another short-relief upgrade to back-stop Chapman and Whitlock. 

Guerrero and Moran aren't bad, but you can never have enough solid relief pitching when you play multiple games that count.  Not sexy but a pretty solid place to invest.

[mvp 78]

52 minutes ago, JerseyJoey said:

I would agree that these 4 players are a critical part of the RedSox success this year (amazing!), but NOT "Key to their trading plans".   The ones you listed aren't going anywhere.

Durbin, Abreu and Contreras are rock-solid, irreplaceable at their positions.  Tolle is one of many SP's, but as written, one of the Top 3 (given current injuries).   Tough start last night, but a few of those groundball singles could have been outs if a a few degrees left or right.  Had plenty of swings & misses too.

Much likely to be "Key to their trading plans" are the players who are either

a) trade-able, replacement parts or prospects -- A "spare" SP (pick one):  Sandoval, even Bennett, and maybe Rivera;  Or perhaps a SS/Inf:  perhaps Cheng or Monasteria (if the Never-Health Story returns)

b) player that are replaceable due to their lack of production -- Duran, who we all want to root for, and is showing signs of life, but is a black-hole in the line-up at a position that needs to be productive offensively. 

Those much smarter than me haven't come up with the obvious (a RH power hitter) to the roster that Breslow should trade for.  Heck, they/we were hoping for the same thing in February, even as Boras/Soros led St. Alex to the Cubs and bestowed a $175m on his aging backside.                                    So who you going to get instead?   Pete Alonso?  Aaron Judge?

Breslow likes pitching and he's done quite well there . . . so I wouldn't bet against another short-relief upgrade to back-stop Chapman and Whitlock. 

Guerrero and Moran aren't bad, but you can never have enough solid relief pitching when you play multiple games that count.  Not sexy but a pretty solid place to invest.

Welcome to TalkSox!

[Alex Mayes]

57 minutes ago, JerseyJoey said:

I would agree that these 4 players are a critical part of the RedSox success this year (amazing!), but NOT "Key to their trading plans".   The ones you listed aren't going anywhere.

Durbin, Abreu and Contreras are rock-solid, irreplaceable at their positions.  Tolle is one of many SP's, but as written, one of the Top 3 (given current injuries).   Tough start last night, but a few of those groundball singles could have been outs if a a few degrees left or right.  Had plenty of swings & misses too.

Much likely to be "Key to their trading plans" are the players who are either

a) trade-able, replacement parts or prospects -- A "spare" SP (pick one):  Sandoval, even Bennett, and maybe Rivera;  Or perhaps a SS/Inf:  perhaps Cheng or Monasteria (if the Never-Health Story returns)

b) player that are replaceable due to their lack of production -- Duran, who we all want to root for, and is showing signs of life, but is a black-hole in the line-up at a position that needs to be productive offensively. 

Those much smarter than me haven't come up with the obvious (a RH power hitter) to the roster that Breslow should trade for.  Heck, they/we were hoping for the same thing in February, even as Boras/Soros led St. Alex to the Cubs and bestowed a $175m on his aging backside.                                    So who you going to get instead?   Pete Alonso?  Aaron Judge?

Breslow likes pitching and he's done quite well there . . . so I wouldn't bet against another short-relief upgrade to back-stop Chapman and Whitlock. 

Guerrero and Moran aren't bad, but you can never have enough solid relief pitching when you play multiple games that count.  Not sexy but a pretty solid place to invest.

The theme of this is that if these four keep playing at the level they have been then the team absolutely should be buyers, not these four being on the trade block. These are arguably the four most untouchable names on the team right now. 
 

Welcome to Talk Sox!

[JoeBrady]

1 hour ago, JerseyJoey said:

. . . so I wouldn't bet against another short-relief upgrade to back-stop Chapman and Whitlock. 

I'd have agreed throughout the winter, and up until about two weeks ago.  I don't see anyone in this BP that I would cut or demote.

[Alex Mayes]

1 hour ago, JoeBrady said:

I'd have agreed throughout the winter, and up until about two weeks ago.  I don't see anyone in this BP that I would cut or demote.

We talked about this on the podcast that will be up shortly, but I think there's a case to make for exploring a Chapman trade still. I feel confident in Whitlock sliding into the closer role full time for the rest of the season and I think we're watching Chapman preparing to fall off a cliff. If he's held on to it's not a bad thing by any means though. I'd likely look to trade him this offseason because I don't feel great about him next year at all.