Red Sox (Early) vs Reds (Lowder): 3/29/26, 1:40pm

[moonslav59]

2 hours ago, Old Red said:

Who this? Who that? As Gomer would say hooty who!

You keep on with the strawmen. It's what you are good at.

[moonslav59]

36 minutes ago, drewski6 said:

Because theyll sub a lefty in at the top of the order every time after the first or second time through.

I'm not sure this is as big an issue as some seem to think it.

Ideally, yes, L-R-L-R looks better, but 2 in a row is not a big deal, especially since Anthony seems to do fine vs lefties.

[drewski6]

54 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

I'm not sure this is as big an issue as some seem to think it.

Ideally, yes, L-R-L-R looks better, but 2 in a row is not a big deal, especially since Anthony seems to do fine vs lefties.

2 lefties in a row is a bigger deal than 2 righties.  I have my doubts that Anthony would be as good vs a lefty as an average righty.  Lefty - lefty is a killer matchup for all lefty batters.  2 righties i have no issue with. I really dont have an issue with 2 lefties in many cases. IN this case, you are putting our 2 best hitters together in a situation that is too counterable IMO.  This is going to drive up % of lefties that both face.

Its possible that people overrate the importance of L-R-L-R and also that its a bad idea here.  End of games they are going to be facing nothing but lefties and they are too good of hitters to do that to.  Lefties stinking against lefties is universal.

[notin]

1 hour ago, drewski6 said:

Because theyll sub a lefty in at the top of the order every time after the first or second time through.

And then we laugh maniacally as they fell into my clever trap.

Anthony is still pretty tough on LHP, or has been to date.  They  do get to weaken Duran by having him face a LHP.  But after Duran I bring up Contreras, who does crush LHP and, thanks to the 3 batter rule…

[drewski6]

1 minute ago, notin said:

And then we laugh maniacally as they fell into my clever trap.

Anthony is still pretty tough on LHP, or has been to date.  But they do get to weaken Duran by having him face a LHP.  But after Duran I bring up Contreras, who does crush LHP and, thanks to the 3 batter rule…

Id be taking into account who they have available in the BP that day, for example is there a freshy lefty who is good?  Im not sure Cora is going that deep into the mixing and match bag, but he does go pretty deep.

But I cant get behind Anthony-Duran because they are both simply too good and too important to be put in a situation that is so counterable.  And its a huge disadvantage to Anthony too.  Maybe not as much because he stays back more than Duran who will chase every slider a lefty throws at him.  But lefties dont hit lefties.  The Ball is coming out from behind you.  I dont want games getting decided by hoping for a lefty (any one) against a lefty on the mound.

Righty - righty is wayyy different.

[drewski6]

It depends a lot on that lefty. Arm slot. Pitch mix.  If he has multiple speeds, throwing from a lower arm slot, and has effective west-to-east pitches (sweepers, sliders) .... even Anthony is f'd. Any lefty is a .200 hitter there (at best).

[notin]

8 minutes ago, drewski6 said:

2 lefties in a row is a bigger deal than 2 righties.  I have my doubts that Anthony would be as good vs a lefty as an average righty.  Lefty - lefty is a killer matchup for all lefty batters.  2 righties i have no issue with. I really dont have an issue with 2 lefties in many cases. IN this case, you are putting our 2 best hitters together in a situation that is too counterable IMO.  This is going to drive up % of lefties that both face.

It’s possible that people overrate the importance of L-R-L-R and also that it’s a bad idea here.  End of games they are going to be facing nothing but lefties and they are too good of hitters to do that to.  Lefties stinking against lefties is universal.

There are all these underlying beliefs about left-handed people and their freakish biomechanical traits.  “They throw across their body.”  “They all hit outside pitches.”  “They all worship Satan.” “They eat nothing except Saltines and mayonaise.”

The inability of lefties to hit LHP is, like everything else, case by case.  And you need only review the hitting of Triston Casas to disprove it as a universals truth..

[moonslav59]

6 minutes ago, drewski6 said:

2 lefties in a row is a bigger deal than 2 righties.  I have my doubts that Anthony would be as good vs a lefty as an average righty.  Lefty - lefty is a killer matchup for all lefty batters.  2 righties i have no issue with. I really dont have an issue with 2 lefties in many cases. IN this case, you are putting our 2 best hitters together in a situation that is too counterable IMO.  This is going to drive up % of lefties that both face.

Its possible that people overrate the importance of L-R-L-R and also that its a bad idea here.  End of games they are going to be facing nothing but lefties and they are too good of hitters to do that to.  Lefties stinking against lefties is universal.

Anthony's sample size is small, as I pointed out, but his career OPS is .800 vs LHPs. I'm not sure we have better RHB options, other than Contreras. (IMO, Contreras & Abreu should bat 4th based on the L-R pitcher. The other could bat 5th or 2nd.

I'm fine with Duran behind Anthony when we face a RH SP'er.

Looking at the 2025 numbers vs LHPs:

.863 Contreras (.869 career)

.770 Anthony

.734 Story

.731 Narvaez

.717 Durbin

.679 Rafaela

.676 Abreu

That being said, I'm not the one hoisting the protection flag. I'm fine with the L-R philosophy and also am fine with adjusting the line-up vs LH or RH SP'ers.

I'd also be fine with this...

v RHP

L Anthony

R Durbin

L Duran

R Contreras

L Abreu

R Story

L Mayer

R Narvaez

R Rafaela

v L

L Anthony

R Durbin

L Abreu or R Story

R Contreras

R Story or L Abreu

L Duran

R Narvaez

L Mayer

R Rafaela

 

 

[drewski6]

21 minutes ago, notin said:

There are all these underlying beliefs about left-handed people and their freakish biomechanical traits.  “They throw across their body.”  “They all hit outside pitches.”  “They all worship Satan.” “They eat nothing except Saltines and mayonaise.”

The inability of lefties to hit LHP is, like everything else, case by case.  And you need only review the hitting of Triston Casas to disprove it as a universals truth..

The reasons why lefty-lefty matchup is far worse than righty-righty is due 1) the type of pitchers lefties usually are (lower arm slot on average, more junk on average) and 2) because you jsut see way more righties growing up.  Im not one to accept conventional wisdom and I hate cliches. I think we have too much pitching.  Thats never where I am coming from (repeating "wisdoms").

Outside of the MLB, everyone sucks against lefties (even righties).  If you go Anthony-Duran, then late in games , they will face mostly lefties.  There are true (not just because conventional wisdoms, cliches and all that lame stuff)....there are true reasons why a lefty is disadvantaged vs a lefty. And against a lefty ROman is a league average hitter (which is super impressive for lefty-lefty) and Duran is bad....And why do that to your 2 best hitters?  There simply must be a better option, e.g. putting the hottest right handed hitter of the moment in between them.

[moonslav59]

Career splits:

v R/v L

.880/.800 Anthony

.839/.604 Abreu

.836/.622 Duran

.797/.647 Yoshida

.791/.869 Contreras

.778/.926 Story

.751/.416 Mayer

.728/.716 Narvaez (Reverse)

.709/.690 Durbin (Reverse)

.699/.645 Rafaela (Reverse)

.691/.660 Wong (Reverse)

.616/.872 Romy

It's interesting that our 4 or our 5 worst batters RHBs vs RHPs have reverse splits. (They are actually worse vs LHPs.)

The RHBs that are decent options to bat high in the line-up vs LHPs are Contreras, Story & Romy. (Romy is on the 60 day IL.) Story's numbers are greatly inflated by his earlier career seasons.

Now, with vs LHPs listed first:

.926/.778 Story

.872/.616 Romy

.869/.791 Contreras

 

.839/.604 Abreu

.836/.622 Duran

.800/.880 Anthony

.716/.708 Narvaez (Reverse)

.690/.709 Durbin (Reverse)

.647/.797 Yoshida

.660/.691 Wong (Reverse)

.645.,699 Rafaela (Reverse)

.416/.751 Mayer

[notin]

2 hours ago, drewski6 said:

The reasons why lefty-lefty matchup is far worse than righty-righty is due 1) the type of pitchers lefties usually are (lower arm slot on average, more junk on average) and 2) because you jsut see way more righties growing up.  Im not one to accept conventional wisdom and I hate cliches. I think we have too much pitching.  Thats never where I am coming from (repeating "wisdoms").

Outside of the MLB, everyone sucks against lefties (even righties).  If you go Anthony-Duran, then late in games , they will face mostly lefties.  There are true (not just because conventional wisdoms, cliches and all that lame stuff)....there are true reasons why a lefty is disadvantaged vs a lefty. And against a lefty ROman is a league average hitter (which is super impressive for lefty-lefty) and Duran is bad....And why do that to your 2 best hitters?  There simply must be a better option, e.g. putting the hottest right handed hitter of the moment in between them.

Roman has an .800 OPS vs LHP, which is well above league average.  It is a limited sample size, however.

The difference between LHH vs LHP and RHH vs RHP is probably not as great as you think. Over the last 3 years, LHH have anout a .675 OPS vs LHP, while RHH have about a .700 OPS vs RHP.  
 

Of course that’s really not relevant, since we’re talking about two very specific LHH’s, one of who is Roman Anthony, whose numbers vs LHP are unlikely to drop just because Wilyer Abreu struggles vs LHP. 

Not to mention, not every team has an endless supply of LHP in their bullpen, and teams rarely carry LOOGY specialists now, as they were obsoleted by the 3 batter rule…