2026 Prospects

[moonslav59]

47 minutes ago, Larry Cook said:

Tolle’s high in innings pitched is 91, I think! He is already at about 80!  Something has to give soon. (See houck, Crawford and crochet for examples of pitchers that far exceed their max innings in year 1 and then crashing and burning in year 2) 

They will limit their IP, but not every pitchers implodes after a career high in IP.

My point was, some other Sox players got off to good to great starts to the season.

Houck pitched several seasons before getting hurt: Crawford, too.

Houck: 60 IP> 106>179 (22>24) They ramped him up slowly.

Crawford: 77>129>184 (22>24)

Crochet went from 146 in 24 to 205 in 25. That's significant but hardly abnormal.

[moonslav59]

Arias homered (#16) and is back over 1.000.

[Larry Cook]

43 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

Houck: 60 IP> 106>179 (22>24) They ramped him up slowly.

Crawford: 77>129>184 (22>24)

Crochet went from 146 in 24 to 205 in 25. That's significant but hardly abnormal.

So houck goes from 106 in 2023 to 179 in 2024. And how does houck look in 2025? 
 

Crawford goes from 129 in 2023 to 184 in 2024. And how does Crawford look in 2025? 
 

crochet goes from 146 in 2024 to 205 in 2025. And how does crochet look in 2026??? 
 

Appears to me they are about to do the same thing to Tolle 

[moonslav59]

15 hours ago, Larry Cook said:

So houck goes from 106 in 2023 to 179 in 2024. And how does houck look in 2025? 
 

Crawford goes from 129 in 2023 to 184 in 2024. And how does Crawford look in 2025? 
 

crochet goes from 146 in 2024 to 205 in 2025. And how does crochet look in 2026??? 
 

Appears to me they are about to do the same thing to Tolle 

I'm saying that's not an extreme ramp up and is very common. Is it why they all got hurt? Maybe- maybe not.

You stated year one to year two. It was not year one-two for any of these guys and not even close.

[moonslav59]

Pedro went from 145 to 195, then over 200 for 5 straight seasons: no ramp-up induced injury.

Schilling went from 76 to 226 then followed that with 235- no injury.

Pitchers are dropping like flies these days, and it could be related to being asked to increase spin rates or velocity and not sudden increases is IP. Maybe it's a combo.

We don't know.

Tolle and  Early have been pulled before reaching 5 IP several times. Tolle has never gone past 99 pitches and has been under 89 in 7 or 12 starts. Under 85 in half his starts.

Early has gone 5.1 IP or less in half his starts. He's gone into the 7th 4 times in 17 starts. He's been pulled before 5 IP in 3 of his last 5 starts. May be that's a sign they are ramping him down. He's gone over 90 pitches in 12 starts, so he's been taxed more than the harder throwing Tolle, but we'll see what happens the rest of the way.

Early is 37th in MLB in IP in an era where nobody goes long nearly every start.

Suarez is 54th at 89 IP and is on pace for a career high in IP.

Gray is at 84 IP (ranked 62nd)

Tolle is 94th at 71.1 IP

147 MLB pitchers have over 40 IP as a SP'er.

Also, counting minors & majors:

2024> 2025:

Early 103>120 IP (on pace for 180, at current rate)

Tolle 81 in college> 108 (on pace for about 140)

 

[moonslav59]

Arias homered, again (#17) walked twice and was HBP. He's at 1.020, now. That's 13th best in all the minors (250+ PAs) Only 8 players have more PAs and a better OPS than he.

Primera is 2nd in OPS among players with 130+ PAs. Nobody has more PAs and a higher OPS than he does.

It's nice to see we have some hopes on offense down the pike.

We have 4 catchers doing well: Ronny Hernandez (1.066) Jorge Rodriguez (.886) Jo Garcia (.851) Luke Heyman (.830)

Brannon at .872 might be a 3rd catcher type, but will likely DH or 1B, if he ever makes it.

Godbout may not be very far away and is at .902. Winnay is up to.886 and at AA, now.

Azocar at .804 is ranked highly.

Brito is doing very well at 1.020, but he's far away.

 

[moonslav59]

Hickey hit two homers and Uberstine pitched 3 strong relief innings, tonight. Gasper and Ward homered, too.

Ziehl pitched very well in POR's loss. 5IP 6H 1ER, 1BB, 8K

Witherspoon got roughed up a bit. Mayers, too.

[moonslav59]

Top Sox Farm OPS (100+ PAs)

1.198 Primera (.525 OBP and .673 SLG both first!)

1.076 Ro Hernandez (.644 SLG is second)

1.020 Arias (17 HRs leads Sox minors)

.977 Brito (.511 OBP)

.964 Gasper

.902 Godbout

.892 Winnay (13 Hrs is 2nd, as is his .427 OBP)

.886 Brannon (11 Hrs & 24 XBHs)

.876 Sogard

.853 Mason White

.844 Jo Garcia

.844 Seigler

.841 Tucker

.833 Heyman (13 Hrs is tied for 2nd)

.822 Rivas

.813 Cespedes (12 Hrs is T 4th/ 32 XBHs is 2nd)

.808 McDonough

.799 Turner

.798 Eaton

.786 Azocar

.785 A Guzman

.784 Gonzales

.776 Cheng

.765 YRod (12 Hrs)

.762 Capra

.759 Hickey

 

 

 

[moonslav59]

OPS Against (30+ IP)

.428 Delzine

.454 Eyanson

.508 B Morgan

.559 Mayers

.570 Bennett

.578 Olds

.591 Rivera

.606 Futrell (63K and 9 BB in 56 IP)

.622 Ingrassia

.646 D Brown (81 Ks in 61 IP)

.665 Rogers & Jose Bello

 

[Old Red]

KC 3-4 last night. Let’s give credit where credit is due.👏

[moonslav59]

Gotta think Sandoval will be called up, soon.

5IP tonight: 1 Hit, 1BB & 7 Ks

Eyanson relieved him and went 5 IP, 3H, 2 ER, 1BB, 7K for the win.

Arias 1-3 and Winnay 2-4.

[moonslav59]

Song got roughed up in Woo's 6-5 loss, but Samaniego pitched well. Ward and Gasper had 2 hits.

GRE is blasting off, tonight. 5 HRs- 2 by Cespedes.

SAL got a rare win 1-0.

[moonslav59]

Some lower level or lower ranked prospects are doing well:

#25 Luke Heyman .878

#27 Mason White .863

#29 Garielvin Silverio .740

#31 Dylan Brown .646 OPSA in 61 IP

#32 Dawvris Brito homered and is now at 1.090 ($1.2M bonus as IFA in Jan 2026)

#33 Brooks Brannon ,899

#34 Jo Garcia .822

#35 Y Rod .774

#36 Isaiah Jackson 3 for 5 tonight (.733)

#37 Louis Andujar (promoted to SAL .724)

#39 Gage Ziehl 3.94 in 64 IP

#40 Jack Winnay .896

#41 Barrett Morgan .508 OPSA

#46 Jojo Ingrassia .622 OPSA

#47 Maximus Martin homered, too and is at 1.274 (10th rd in '25)

#53 Adonys Guzman .792

#56 Jorge Rodrigues is at .921 (IFA 2024)

#58 Devin Futrell .606 OPSA (63K:9BB in 56IP)

[moonslav59]

Woo won today as newly acquired catcher Kniszner homered, and Gasper doubled twice.

POR won 10-0 as Wehunt let up 1 hit in 5IP and Paez let up 1 in 4IP. Together, they K'd 17 batters!!! Wehunt walked 4 and Paaez none. Brannon hit his 12th dinger and has risen to .924. Could he be our next DH?

GRE lost, but Jackson and M White both hit their 12th homers.

[moonslav59]

Soxprospects.com updated it's rankings:

(Early & Tolle graduated, so +2 by attrition for most)

Jumpers:

6>2 Eyanson

10>4 Bennett

15>6 Azocar

36>7 Primera

23>10 Delzine

34>14 Cespedes

32>18 Rivera

29>22 G Rod

31>23 Heyman

NR>25 Winnay

38>27 Mason White

60>30 Dylan Brown

51>34 Jo Garcia

53>36 Brannon

_________________

NR to 20 Paez

_________________

Sliders:

5>9 Valera

7>12 Phillips

12>16 Romero

13>19 Uberstine

16>31 Castro (finally)

22>46 Taylor (ouch)

28>35 Ziehl

33>37 Bleis (finally)

[moonslav59]

My top 

1 Arias

2 Eyanson

3 Bennett

4 Gonzales

5 Witherspoon

6 Valera

7 Primera

 8 Azocar

9 Delzine

10 Soto

11 Godbout

12 Rivas

13 Silverio

14 Phillips

15 GRod

16 Heyman

17 Jo Garcia

18 Brannon

19. Cespedes

20. Futrell

21. Holobetz

22. M White

23. Winnay

24. Ramos

25. Brown

26. Brito

27. BMorgan

28 Ziehl

29 Y Rod

30 J Rodrigues

Not in my top 30: Paez, Bastardo, Wehunt, Rivera, Romero, Uberstine, Mullins

[moonslav59]

Ingrassia is looking good. Through 5 he had 10 Ks, 0BBs and 0 hits, then let up a single and HR, but GRE won as Cespedes hit his 15th dinger.

Sal won 14-5 as Finley was wild (6BB in 3.1) 21 hits and 5 BB has a way of making up for bad pitching.

WOO & POR Rained out.

 

 

[moonslav59]

Woo won 8-7 as Sogard went 2-3 w BB in his rehab. Kniszer had 3 rbi and McDonough followed up his player of the day game by going 2-3.

POR and Ziehl got shelled. Arias, Brannon and Baez all homered. Jo Garcia and Brannon had 2 hits.

GRE won 5-4, as Bickerstaff pitched well in 4.1 innings in relief. Gonzales, Anderson & Tucker homered.

SAL lost 1-5. Guzman had 2 hits- one a homer (.938.)

FCL lost 14-11 despite 12 hits and 10 walks. Sox pitchers walked 15!

[moonslav59]

Catcher OPS on the Farm

1.112 Primera FCL/SAL

1.027 Ro Hernandez GRE

1.023 Gasper WOO

.954 Jo Rodriguez FCL

.931 Brannon POR (1B/DH)

.845 A Guzman SAL/GRE

.844 Jo Garcia POR

.809 Heyman SAL/GRE

.804 Mussett SAL (1B)

.752 Hickey WOO (1B/DH)

.729 Baez WOO

.705 Knizner WOO

.699 Rosario POR

.687 Mambel FCL/SAL (1B)

.663 Hudson White GRE

.626 Ge Rodriguez GRE

[moonslav59]

 McDonough HR'd again.  WOO beat Luis Perales.

Brannon HR'd again and Rosario hit 2 in POR's win. Winnay had 3 hits.

GRE won in a shootout. Gonzales hit his 12th, M White his 13th and GRod 6th/Heyman 9th.

SAL won, too.

[moonslav59]

SAL lost 9-8. Andujar wit 3 its and a HR.

GRE won 12-7,  and hit 5 dingers. 2 by Azocar.

POR won 8-3. Woo lost 10-3

[Larry Cook]

9 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

SAL lost 9-8. Andujar wit 3 its and a HR.

GRE won 12-7,  and hit 5 dingers. 2 by Azocar.

POR won 8-3. Woo lost 10-3

Azocar, andujar Primera and Gonzales are all very young and have nice swings and decent at bats!!!  If they can identify spin better, we may have something with them, 

[moonslav59]

7 hours ago, Larry Cook said:

Azocar, andujar Primera and Gonzales are all very young and have nice swings and decent at bats!!!  If they can identify spin better, we may have something with them, 

I think we have enough hitting prospects to ensure a few will be very helpful over the next few years. None are really ML ready right now, but maybe...

2027: Arias SS (just in time to replace Story or Romy) Brannon DH?

2028: Gonzales 1B/LF (just in time to replace Duran or Contreras) Godbout 2B (big need at 2B, now) Jo Garcia C? Winnay at 1B/3B? Cespedes DH

2029: Azocar CF/RF (replace Abreu?) Heyman or G Rod at C?

2030: Primera C (We need a C now) Soto SS (high need, now)

[mvp 78]

16 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

I think we have enough hitting prospects to ensure a few will be very helpful over the next few years. None are really ML ready right now, but maybe...

2027: Arias SS (just in time to replace Story or Romy) Brannon DH?

2028: Gonzales 1B/LF (just in time to replace Duran or Contreras) Godbout 2B (big need at 2B, now) Jo Garcia C? Winnay at 1B/3B? Cespedes DH

2029: Azocar CF/RF (replace Abreu?) Heyman or G Rod at C?

2030: Primera C (We need a C now) Soto SS (high need, now)

I don't think Gonzales will be ready to be a starting OFer for BOS in '28. 

Godbout's surgery will definitely move his timetable back a little bit. He had an outside chance to get to BOS at the end of '27. 

Garcia isn't really a C anymore, but especially not at the MLB level. Maybe he can be an emergency catcher? He's really 1b/DH.

Winnay is terrible at 3b and needs to be 1b fulltime. 

I don't think Cespedes will get to BOS by the end of '28. No chance. If anything, he's traded.

Hard to project the '29 and '30 guys at all because things change. They are all too far away. 

Overall, they have a lot of 1B/DH guys and not all of them are going to find playing time at some point: Brannon, Heyman, Garcia, Winnay.

[moonslav59]

On 7/13/2026 at 9:26 AM, mvp 78 said:

I don't think Gonzales will be ready to be a starting OFer for BOS in '28. 

Godbout's surgery will definitely move his timetable back a little bit. He had an outside chance to get to BOS at the end of '27. 

Garcia isn't really a C anymore, but especially not at the MLB level. Maybe he can be an emergency catcher? He's really 1b/DH.

Winnay is terrible at 3b and needs to be 1b fulltime. 

I don't think Cespedes will get to BOS by the end of '28. No chance. If anything, he's traded.

Hard to project the '29 and '30 guys at all because things change. They are all too far away. 

Overall, they have a lot of 1B/DH guys and not all of them are going to find playing time at some point: Brannon, Heyman, Garcia, Winnay.

Good reply. It seems we have a bunch of guys that could be DHs, someday and some might be emergency 3rd catchers or pushing it as back-up C and DH types.

The problem with DH'ing your #2 catcher is if he's needed as a catcher mid-game, but that is not the end of teh world.

I do think Brannon and Jo Garcia may hit well enough to be a DH by 2028.

I think Cespedes gets traded and now my be the best timing on that.

Agree on Gonzales- maybe late '28 is best ETA. Arias is probably the only near immediate & significant everyday help we will see.

It's time for some pitchers for bats trades, but look how the Priester and Harrison trades have been evaluated, recently. Sale for Grissom was a disaster.

Can Winnay play 1B after Contreras is gone?

[moonslav59]

soxprospects.com podcast with Andrew Parker had some tidbits...

https://news.soxprospects.com/2026/07/podcast-ep-422-2026-draft-recap.html

1. Good to see a "shake up from the college arm top draft picks," and "got to be where they wanted to be, under year one under the Jake Brummel era."

2. Brummel had said before the draft that they might drat under slot and then draft overslot "on pick 9 and 10," and that's exactly what he did.

3. Brummel expects 18 of 20 draft picks to sign. The draft is more everyday player centered and had some more HS picks, too (3 in top 10.) Maybe #18 Offing will not sign, unless we lose out on someone else.

4. Still stuck with big pitchers for the most part.

5. They think #9 Shelar ("power/speed combo") and #10 LaFavor might get $1M bonuses.

6. On the college arms, the Sox are very high on Davenport as in hearing they think he's "going to be a dude." Adetuyi has some of the best spin rates in the draft.

7. They see Jacob Webster as a sticking at SS and not being 2-way.

8. Who might be ranked top 30? Maybe 4-5 players and another 2-3 30-60. Top 30: Shelar, LaFavor, Schaffner & Mataczynski with Lanman borderline. Hull, Davenport and Adetuyi might be borderlinish.

Basically, they seemed kinda high on the draft

 

[Larry Cook]

34 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

Who might be ranked top 30? Maybe 4-5 players and another 2-3 30-60. Top 30: Shelar, LaFavor, Schaffner & Mataczynski with Lanman borderline. Hull, Davenport and Adetuyi might be borderlinish.

 

I saw a lot of schaffner and hull this past season because of unc having a deep World Series run 

Schaffner is probably a future second baseman, if, he can hit velocity!!!  Everything else about this kid screams future major leaguer. He reminds me of godbout minus the broken hand. 
 

hull is probably a future left fielder, if, he learns to pick up the spin on pitches. He reminds me of a more selective castro!!  

[mvp 78]

16 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

Good reply. It seems we have a bunch of guys that could be DHs, someday and some might be emergency 3rd catchers or pushing it as back-up C and DH types.

The problem with DH'ing your #2 catcher is if he's needed as a catcher mid-game, but that is not the end of teh world.

I do think Brannon and Jo Garcia may hit well enough to be a DH by 2028.

I think Cespedes gets traded and now my be the best timing on that.

Agree on Gonzales- maybe late '28 is best ETA. Arias is probably the only near immediate & significant everyday help we will see.

It's time for some pitchers for bats trades, but look how the Priester and Harrison trades have been evaluated, recently. Sale for Grissom was a disaster.

Can Winnay play 1B after Contreras is gone?

I believe FanGraphs (or a similar site) had a recent article on teams using their catchers more and more as DH's on days when they aren't behind the dish. If you have a guy that can swing it, why not? 

The big question now that the Sox are probably signing 8 bats from this draft class is "who is getting promoted and who is getting waived to make room for the new guys?" 

[moonslav59]

6 hours ago, mvp 78 said:

I believe FanGraphs (or a similar site) had a recent article on teams using their catchers more and more as DH's on days when they aren't behind the dish. If you have a guy that can swing it, why not? 

The big question now that the Sox are probably signing 8 bats from this draft class is "who is getting promoted and who is getting waived to make room for the new guys?" 

I think you have to start at the top (AAA & AA) and work backwards. Identify who is not needed as MLB depth for 2026, and then who it least likely to ever be a MLB option, and cut them loose. Almost all the picks were listed as SS or OF, but we know some movement will occur.

Catcher: I think Knizner has won the first catcher depth slot along with Gasper. There is no need to keep Delay & Thaiss, so there is one. Maybe promote Brannon, Baez, Jo Garcia or Rosario from AA to AAA, and up the line from there.

1B has Sogard listed at AAA, so promoting Brannon as the 1B/C/DH might be a good idea. Let Matt Lloyd and/or keep/trade Hickey.

2B has McDonough & Ferguson & SS has Capra. I have zero faith in the first two ever being true MLB options, so I could see cutting one loose and promoting Arias after the ASB.

3B has Romero, and my guess is he stays at 3B to finish the 2026 season at AAA. (Eaton is a keeper and can play OF)

OF: Castro-Ward-KC will likely stay, but AAA could add an OF'er from AA, if we had one worty. More likely we just add Eaton to the mix. Maybe we trade Bleis, Frazier or Taylor and promote Gonzales from A+, to make room for an OF'er down lower- by attrition. Maybe we trade some farm OF'ers and middle infielders.

Pitchers: I think our pitching on the farm is stronger, so maybe we trade pitching for ML help, and open up some room for drafted pitchers.

To me, our most tradeable prospects are:

Near ML Ready: 13 Holobetz, 16 Romero, 19 Uberstine, 20 Paez, 21 Mullins, 24 Bastardo, 30 Castro, 36 Brannon, 37 Bleis

Close enough to MLB? 14 Cespedes, 17 Wehunt, 25 Winnay, 26 Monegro, 34 Jo Garcia, 35 Ziehl, 46 Taylor, 58 Rogers