Breaking: Sonny Gray to Red Sox, Igniting MLB Pitcher Market

[Brandon Glick]

Well, at long last, the Boston Red Sox have their No. 2 starting pitcher. Sonny Gray of the St. Louis Cardinals is heading to Beantown as part of yet another blockbuster trade in this early part of the 2025-26 MLB offseason.

Gray, 36, is reworking his contract as part of this deal. He'll receive $31 million for 2026 and a $10 million buyout on a mutual option in 2027. The Cardinals are sending $20 million as part of the trade, meaning the Red Sox will get him for the equivalent of $21 million over one season.

The return for Gray is reportedly major-league pitcher Richard Fitts and top pitching prospect Brandon Clarke.

Before getting into Gray, let's acknowledge that Clarke is a legitimate prospect. However, I can confirm that people within the organization had significant concerns about his reliever risk after the 22-year-old ran into stamina and command issues in his professional debut in 2025. Though he possesses brilliant stuff, Clarke worked an 18.1% walk rate in 28 1/3 innings in High-A this past season; his ceiling may be that of an elite reliever, which simply isn't as valuable as a top-tier starting prospect. Plus, the Red Sox already have a number of players that fit that archetype that leapt Clarke on the depth chart this year, including first-round pick Kyson Witherspoon, Payton Tolle, and Connelly Early. He was expendable, even if he's only scratched the surface of his talent.

As for Fitts, the 25-year-old is a pure reclamation project for the Cardinals. He struggled badly in his 45.0 major-league innings this year (5.00 ERA, 5.80 FIP) and ended the season on the injured list with right arm neuritis. He no longer had a place on the 40-man roster among a loaded group of backend starters like Hunter Dobbins, Kutter Crawford, and Patrick Sandoval.

That's a notable return for a 36-year-old pitcher on an expensive one-year contract, but with the Cardinals paying down roughly half of it, this is absolutely a trade the Red Sox could afford to make. Chaim Bloom knows this system well, and only losing one notable prospect at a position of extreme organizational depth for a legitimate No. 2 pitcher is a solid bit of pre-Thanksgiving work by Craig Breslow and company.

And let's make something clear: Gray is a "legitimate No. 2" starting pitcher. He may be removed from his 2023 peak when he led the league in FIP (2.83) and finished second in AL Cy Young voting with the Minnesota Twins, but he still led the Senior Circuit in strikeout-to-walk ratio (5.29) and handled more than 180 innings for the second time in three years.

Gray has run an xERA below 4.00 in every single season since 2019, a feat he's matched in both FIP and xFIP. He's a metrics darling despite modest strikeout numbers throughout his career, though he's improved upon even that recently, ringing up 30.3% of hitters in 2024 and 26.7% of hitters in 2025. Though he's started to allow harder contact as he gets older, he's maintained elite chase, whiff, and walk rates without fail.

Notably, the right-handed comes equipped with a seven-pitch arsenal that's highlighted by a devastating sweeper that yielded a 42.3% whiff rate in 2025; he and Garrett Crochet were two of just five pitchers to surpass that mark with their sweepers last season (min. 400 pitches). He only averaged 92.0 mph on his fastballs, but that's just one tick down from his peak velocity in 2018-20. This is a guy who knows how to pitch to major-league hitters. Expect more of the same from Gray as he gets a chance to work in Andrew Bailey's pitching lab in 2026.

From here, the Red Sox can move their offseason in a bunch of different directions. They could pursue another starter with the Cardinals eating so much money, or they can prioritize bullpen depth and infield help. Either way, starting the winter off with such a savvy move puts them well in front of the pack prior to the Winter Meetings.

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[Nick]

$20M in return makes me feel better.

If he can continue to throw strikes, I'm good with it. We've had too many acquisitions where the control left them.

I love it that this happened early. I hate the waiting game. Go get Schwarber, and we'll be 60% done for the winter.

[ThisSox]

This move has them already 60% done. 

[Brock Beauchamp]

1 hour ago, ThisSox said:

This move has them already 60% done. 

Welcome to Talk Sox!

[TedYazPapiMookie]

This was a solid deal.  Sonny Gray has pitched well on and off for his whole career.  The last two years haven't been stellar but they've been adequate.  His incredible control helps off set his diminishing ability to get batters out.  His H/9 is that of a bottom of the order pitcher but his BB/9 makes up for it a bit and creates a profile of an aging SP3 or SP4.  Crochet and Early are clearly superior to him.  He's more comparable to Bello (when he's pitching well).  Now we need Tolle to add a pitch and round out the starting rotation.

It cost Boston next to nothing for him so it's a good deal.  He has big game experience which makes him more valuable than his numbers. 

[JoeBrady]

I like it.  I think we've seen all that Fitts can be.  Clarke could be good, but his BB9 is frightening.  I don't agree with the article labeling Gray as a #2, but I think he is definitely a good, maybe very good, #3.  Just as important, we now have 3 dependable arms.  If we spent the rest of the off-season pursuing bats, I wouldn't be happy, but we might have just enough of a rotation to get by.  But I still want to package up Duran and/or Abreu+ for another live, controlled arm.

But looking through the glass half-full, we got gray for the tail-end of a Yankee trade plus a 5th rounder.

[TedYazPapiMookie]

35 minutes ago, JoeBrady said:

I like it.  I think we've seen all that Fitts can be.  Clarke could be good, but his BB9 is frightening.  I don't agree with the article labeling Gray as a #2, but I think he is definitely a good, maybe very good, #3.  Just as important, we now have 3 dependable arms.  If we spent the rest of the off-season pursuing bats, I wouldn't be happy, but we might have just enough of a rotation to get by.  But I still want to package up Duran and/or Abreu+ for another live, controlled arm.

But looking through the glass half-full, we got gray for the tail-end of a Yankee trade plus a 5th rounder.

Joe, some fun facts:

Abreu hit .295 in April of 2025 while Campbell hit .301.  Abreu had 95 at bats in 26 games so he platooned part of the month while he was peaking.  The high average needs to be normalized for what it would have been had he not platooned since folks suggest he should be full time.  Campbell had 103 at bats in 29 games.  These two players led the ball club in March/April.

Campbell dramatically dropped off May 1 and he only had 126 more at bats in 2025 and finished at .223 average facing both right-handed and left-handed pitchers.

Abreu had 302 more at bats while platooning against right-handed pitchers and had just 64 hits for an average of .212 after May 1 while platooning!!  The .295 in the first month allowed the season average to only fall to .247 for the year while platooning. 

Duran had 620 at bats while being dropped in the order for part of the season.  He hit .256 with an OBP of .332.  The .256 was 11 points below his career average and his OBP was four points higher than his career average.  His defense sucked in LF compared to his days in centerfield but that is easily fixed by playing him in CF in 2026.  While Abreu had a career season hitting LH pitchers .230 average it was only in 61 at bats.  No telling what he'd do if he was fulltime and getting 280 at bats versus lefties.  Duran had his worst season hitting LH pitchers .211 in 194 at bats (more than 3 times as many as Abreu).  For their careers Duran is hitting .232 (512 ABs) vs LH pitchers and ,279 vs RH pitchers.  Abreu on the other hand is hitting ,205 (132 ABs) vs LH pitchers and .265 vs RH pitchers (14 points lower than Duran). 

In summary, if Duran plays CF he's a better defender than Abreu, he's a better hitter than Abreu while not platooning like Abreu to artificially raise his performance, he's a better base runner than Abreu and he's missed less time than Abreu to injury.   

It's a no brainer that Duran should stay and Abreu should go if we seek an arm and the choice of who to trade for it comes down to Duran and Abreu.  The team is much stronger with Duran despite the bogus GGs Awarded to Abreu because Abreu hit .212 from May 1 until the end of the season.  That's nearly the same as Campbell in June prior to being dropped to AAA!!!  

[Malcolm White]

On 11/25/2025 at 10:03 PM, TedYazPapiMookie said:

Joe, some fun facts:

Abreu hit .295 in April of 2025 while Campbell hit .301.  Abreu had 95 at bats in 26 games so he platooned part of the month while he was peaking.  The high average needs to be normalized for what it would have been had he not platooned since folks suggest he should be full time.  Campbell had 103 at bats in 29 games.  These two players led the ball club in March/April.

Campbell dramatically dropped off May 1 and he only had 126 more at bats in 2025 and finished at .223 average facing both right-handed and left-handed pitchers.

Abreu had 302 more at bats while platooning against right-handed pitchers and had just 64 hits for an average of .212 after May 1 while platooning!!  The .295 in the first month allowed the season average to only fall to .247 for the year while platooning. 

Duran had 620 at bats while being dropped in the order for part of the season.  He hit .256 with an OBP of .332.  The .256 was 11 points below his career average and his OBP was four points higher than his career average.  His defense sucked in LF compared to his days in centerfield but that is easily fixed by playing him in CF in 2026.  While Abreu had a career season hitting LH pitchers .230 average it was only in 61 at bats.  No telling what he'd do if he was fulltime and getting 280 at bats versus lefties.  Duran had his worst season hitting LH pitchers .211 in 194 at bats (more than 3 times as many as Abreu).  For their careers Duran is hitting .232 (512 ABs) vs LH pitchers and ,279 vs RH pitchers.  Abreu on the other hand is hitting ,205 (132 ABs) vs LH pitchers and .265 vs RH pitchers (14 points lower than Duran). 

In summary, if Duran plays CF he's a better defender than Abreu, he's a better hitter than Abreu while not platooning like Abreu to artificially raise his performance, he's a better base runner than Abreu and he's missed less time than Abreu to injury.   

It's a no brainer that Duran should stay and Abreu should go if we seek an arm and the choice of who to trade for it comes down to Duran and Abreu.  The team is much stronger with Duran despite the bogus GGs Awarded to Abreu because Abreu hit .212 from May 1 until the end of the season.  That's nearly the same as Campbell in June prior to being dropped to AAA!!!  

Stop already.  The argument is not supported by your facts.

Jarren Duran had an even .600 OPS vs. lefties last year, with a 28% K rate and 4% walk rate.  He shouldn't even be in the lineup, let alone hitting high in the order. Abreu's OPS vs. LHP was .676. You whine about Abreu's ,212 average, which was a point higher than Duran's against lefties.

"Summarizing" that a position switch makes him a better defender than a two-time Gold Glove winner is flat-out wrong. Duran takes lousy routes and has an infielder's arm; Abreu's is elite. 

I like Duran, a lot. He doesn't have enough power for a corner outfielder, can't be played in center (an enormous fielding gulf between him and Rafaela), and the $7.7M represents the last year he'll be good value.  In a full season's worth (512 AB's) of facing lefties, he's .232/.284/.336, with 8 homers.

If the Red Sox auction off their OFs as they should, they'll find Duran has the least value, not the most.