Article: The Red Sox Have Lost the Human Element Under Craig Breslow's Leadership

[Bellhorn04]

58 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

Okay. I will say that if you add Devers Runs and RBI and minus his Hrs, it was 97 runs accounted for. That was 25% of our runs.

But this is misleading because you if you do it for every player you end up with much more than 100%.  Because other players have RBI on Devers's runs and other players have runs on Devers's RBI.  Devers was part of 97 runs but he wasn't fully responsible for them.  The only fully responsible run is a solo home run.  

The Runs Above Replacement numbers are a much better representation of 'runs added'. 

[moonslav59]

12 minutes ago, Maxbialystock said:

Horsehockey!!!  ...  

The Sox went south when Bregman dropped out of the lineup on May 24.  They were 26-26 and went down to 30-35 because he was missed.   And the comeback was not, repeat not, because of Raffy.  It was because of the pitching.

 

Max, we were 26-26, when Bregman went down. We are 13-11 since.

While Devers did not do great in those 24 games, it's not fair to act like he wasn't a factor, but we scored 94 runs and Devers scored 13 and knocked in 11 (minus the 3HRs and that totals 21 out of 94 runs he had a role in.)

[Maxbialystock]

2 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

Again, tell me why you assume our pitching, which has been up and down, all year, will suddenly continue as it has done over the last 6-7 games, but you also have total faith in Toro at 1B- a guy who has sucked over the last 6-7 games (something like 2 for 17.)

We need guys like Toro to do even better than they were doing before the trade. IMO, that is asking too much from him, Romy and a few others.

I do think Story can do better than his current OPS. I think Abreu and Bregman can make an impact, when they return, but Bregman is not close to returning. We can count on the kids, sure, but we will be seeing Mayer, Anthony and Narvaez- 3 rookies- batting 3-4-5 almost every game and Campbell 7th or 8th almost every game.

Maybe Duran becomes the 2024 Duran, again. That's not far-fetched. I'm not expecting more from Refsnyder. he's already done great. Who else will make up for the loss of a guy who accounted for 25% of our runs- pre trade?

That's a big ask of an iffy pitching staff and a bunch of rookie batters.

We know what an iffy pitching staff looks like already.  They were the guys dragging us down when Bregman, Abreu, and Raffy were playing every day or almost every day.  With THE GREAT DEVERS backed up by Bregman, et al, this team was going nowhere.  When Bregman went on the IL, The Sox went to 30-35, and they came back because of pitching and not--absolutely not--because of Devers.

I like Devers and thought he was perfect as the DH.  But keeping him was absolutely, positively not going to get the Sox into the postseason without better pitching.   If the rotation and bullpen are in fact better, we got a shot.  If they ain't, we won't.

You could be right about the 25%, but I don't care. 

I find this new team great fun to watch.  Four freaking rookies! Narvaez is already a big asset. I expect Mayer and Anthony to be assets this season.  Campbell is struggling, but he ain't no bum.  And behind those four will be Bregman, Abreu, Story, Duran, Rafaela, Toro/Gonzalez, Yoshida/Ref, and Wong.  

Plus of course the pitching.  There could of course be some regression, but I don't see them returning to their bad ways.  Well, maybe Ferris needs to go back to high school.  

Time will tell.  

 

 

[moonslav59]

5 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

But this is misleading because you if you do it for every player you end up with much more than 100%.  Because other players have RBI on Devers's runs and other players have runs on Devers's RBI.  Devers was part of 97 runs but he wasn't fully responsible for them.  The only fully responsible run is a solo home run.  

The Runs Above Replacement numbers are a much better representation of 'runs added'. 

I agree, and I never said I expected 25% less runs, going forward.

We can't minimize that Devers was a huge part of our offense. The players in front and behind him benefited from him being in the line-up. He had a .401 OBP. We may replace that with .300 to .330-- maybe. Then, there are the RBIs and HRs.

I think it's more than 2 games difference, going forward. It's also not 25% less runs, and I admitted not 15%, either.

[Bellhorn04]

Devers is on pace for 4-5 WAR.  He's having a typical Devers season.  This trade might not have happened otherwise.

[moonslav59]

1 minute ago, Maxbialystock said:

We know what an iffy pitching staff looks like already.  They were the guys dragging us down when Bregman, Abreu, and Raffy were playing every day or almost every day.  With THE GREAT DEVERS backed up by Bregman, et al, this team was going nowhere.  When Bregman went on the IL, The Sox went to 30-35, and they came back because of pitching and not--absolutely not--because of Devers.

I like Devers and thought he was perfect as the DH.  But keeping him was absolutely, positively not going to get the Sox into the postseason without better pitching.   If the rotation and bullpen are in fact better, we got a shot.  If they ain't, we won't.

You could be right about the 25%, but I don't care. 

I find this new team great fun to watch.  Four freaking rookies! Narvaez is already a big asset. I expect Mayer and Anthony to be assets this season.  Campbell is struggling, but he ain't no bum.  And behind those four will be Bregman, Abreu, Story, Duran, Rafaela, Toro/Gonzalez, Yoshida/Ref, and Wong.  

Plus of course the pitching.  There could of course be some regression, but I don't see them returning to their bad ways.  Well, maybe Ferris needs to go back to high school.  

Time will tell.  

I'm glad the trade improved our pitching and that it was doing better before the trade.

I do agree that our pitching needed to be better, even with Devers, but the trade barely changes that fact.

Yous till haven't answer my question about why you are still high on Toro, when his poor sample size equals the sample size of our better pitching.

[TheSplinteredSplendor]

1 hour ago, moonslav59 said:

Yup. Out of 74 qualifying players in MLB, Duran is 51st at .724. Rafaela is 60th at .681, Campbell is 66th at .664 and Story is 71st at .638.

I think the cutoff is 230 PAs. For what it's worth, if you lower it to 210 PAs, we jump from 5 to 8 players. Here are those rankings:

1. Judge 1.192

3. Bregman .938

(6. Devers .905)

20. Narvaez .814

24. Grisham .798

25. Goldschmidt .797

27. Abreu .792

36. Rice .769

42. Bellinger .763

55. Wells .731

60. Volpe .726

62. Duran .724

66. Dominguez .708

72. Rafaela .681

80. Campbell .664

85. Story .638

We'd have to go down to 90 PAs to get Refsnyder and other Sox players on the top part of the list of 189 players, or about 6 player per team:

7. Refsnyder .900

21. Toro .835

25. Romy .819

28. Narvaez .814

4 in the top 30, looks pretty nice. (nyy HAS 1.)

38. Abreu .792

(NYY has 6 in the top 30 to our 5.)

And if you take out all the at-bats where the Yankees didn't hit a home run then they would have all the top spots..........

[moonslav59]

2 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

Devers is on pace for 4-5 WAR.  He's having a typical Devers season.  This trade might not have happened otherwise.

True. fangraphs has his hitting at 16.7 (16th best in MLB)and his defense at -8.1 due to the positional -8.1 for being a DH.

I get how they come up with the 2.1 WAR for Devers, but to me, he won more than 2 games for the Sox, this year.

[Bellhorn04]

1 minute ago, moonslav59 said:

True. fangraphs has his hitting at 16.7 (16th best in MLB)and his defense at -8.1 due to the positional -8.1 for being a DH.

I get how they come up with the 2.1 WAR for Devers, but to me, he won more than 2 games for the Sox, this year.

Yeah but if you go game by game like that, he lost some games too. 

[moonslav59]

2 minutes ago, TheSplinteredSplendor said:

And if you take out all the at-bats where the Yankees didn't hit a home run then they would have all the top spots..........

LOL.

I brought the sample size down to where each team averages 6 qualifying players, when 9 are in each line-up.

I don't think my point was a big reach.

Going down just 20 PAs is hardly a deceiving ploy. At 210 PAs, NYY and BOS both have 3 guys over .770 and .790.

[moonslav59]

Just now, Bellhorn04 said:

Yeah but if you go game by game like that, he lost some games too. 

I mean more than net +2 games.

[Maxbialystock]

3 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

True. fangraphs has his hitting at 16.7 (16th best in MLB)and his defense at -8.1 due to the positional -8.1 for being a DH.

I get how they come up with the 2.1 WAR for Devers, but to me, he won more than 2 games for the Sox, this year.

Mayer and Anthony have each already won 1 game for the Sox this year--Mayer with the 2 dingers on June 11 and Anthony with the 2 run double on June 10.   

[Maxbialystock]

9 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

LOL.

I brought the sample size down to where each team averages 6 qualifying players, when 9 are in each line-up.

I don't think my point was a big reach.

Going down just 20 PAs is hardly a deceiving ploy. At 210 PAs, NYY and BOS both have 3 guys over .770 and .790.

Nicely done.    You managed to show how Narvaez and Bregman have meant nothing this year.  Pardon me if I demure.  

[moonslav59]

1 minute ago, Maxbialystock said:

Nicely done.    You managed to show how Narvaez and Bregman have meant nothing this year.  Pardon me if I demure.  

No. I was showing how your way of showing a player's value is faulty.

The Bregman and Narvaez examples are proof of that.

You claimed the team did worse after we lost Bregman and implied Devers was partially responsible.

 

[moonslav59]

8 minutes ago, Maxbialystock said:

Mayer and Anthony have each already won 1 game for the Sox this year--Mayer with the 2 dingers on June 11 and Anthony with the 2 run double on June 10.   

Anthony has a .416 OPS. I have a lot of faith in him, but please don't imply he is winning more games than losing, so far.

[Maxbialystock]

19 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

I'm glad the trade improved our pitching and that it was doing better before the trade.

I do agree that our pitching needed to be better, even with Devers, but the trade barely changes that fact.

Yous till haven't answer my question about why you are still high on Toro, when his poor sample size equals the sample size of our better pitching.

I don't at all think the trade improved our pitching and won't until those new guys produce.

The trade cost us Devers, but his loss became less disastrous and more affordable when the pitching was lights out. 

And, let's face it, Devers was on his way out the day Bregman was announced as the Sox third baseman.  Devers took that hard, especially because he had been promised he would stay at 3b.  Cora finally convinced him to embrace DH, where Devers flourished.  But Breslow wasn't done and bypassed Cora to ask Devers to play 1b in midseason.  In his 9 seasons with the Sox Devers was never THE MAN on a team that made it to the postseason.  In 2021 his OPS was a whopping .890, but his DWAR was -0.9 and his WAR 3.5.  

I'm not high on Toro.  I don't think he's another Narvaez.  But I do think both he and Gonzalez are an improvement over Casas who stunk before the injury.  Toro's WAR is +0.4 and Gonzalez's is +0.6.  Casas' OPS was -0.9.  

[Maxbialystock]

13 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

No. I was showing how your way of showing a player's value is faulty.

The Bregman and Narvaez examples are proof of that.

You claimed the team did worse after we lost Bregman and implied Devers was partially responsible.

 

I am sure I overstepped statistically.  Yours are always better.  But I sure like the ring of what I said. 

Let's try this.  With Devers as DH, Bregman at 3b, Abreu in RF, Rafaela in CF, Duran in LF, Story at SS, Campbell at 2b, Toro at 1b, and Narvaez as the primary catcher, most of us thought the Sox wouldn't make the playoffs, primarily because of the pitching.   

Now the pitching looks pretty good.  And I'm saying that, if it holds up, I don't think Devers will be missed and that the Sox will make the postseason. 

On top of that I kind of like seeing 4 rookies, 2 of whom are already contributing.  Plus Anthony's late 2 run double won one game.  So I also like the 2026  Sox, especially if some of Raffy's salary helps get us another good starter.  

 

[Maxbialystock]

6 hours ago, mvp 78 said:

What specifically about those stats do you not like? 

1. I'm worried about the offense because of the makeup of the roster this year (not long term). 

2. The offense is in a funk, but is being bailed out by the rotation that is balling out. 

3. Without a big bopper at the top of the lineup, it's infinitely harder to see who is going to carry this lineup going forward. 

4. I like Bregman, but his 158 wRC+ is the highest it has been since 2019 and seems like it make regress some as well. 

All good points which I'm sorry I overlooked.

My rejoinders are:  1) we are missing more than one big bopper with Abreu and Bregman both out; 2) I like a projected outfield of Duran, Rafaela, Abreu, and Anthony, an infield of Bregman, Story, Mayer, and Toro/Gonzalez, Narvaez/Wong as catcher, and Yoshida/Ref as the DH; 3) the lineup is only 1/2 the team and it's already decent; 4) this team goes nowhere without better pitching that what saw before the last 8 games in a row; 5) with good pitching Devers absence will be missed a lot less; 6) I also think the defense this year is a big improvement over last year's when Devers was our third baseman.  

[moonslav59]

7 minutes ago, Maxbialystock said:

I am sure I overstepped statistically.  Yours are always better.  But I sure like the ring of what I said. 

Let's try this.  With Devers as DH, Bregman at 3b, Abreu in RF, Rafaela in CF, Duran in LF, Story at SS, Campbell at 2b, Toro at 1b, and Narvaez as the primary catcher, most of us thought the Sox wouldn't make the playoffs, primarily because of the pitching.   

Now the pitching looks pretty good.  And I'm saying that, if it holds up, I don't think Devers will be missed and that the Sox will make the postseason. 

On top of that I kind of like seeing 4 rookies, 2 of whom are already contributing.  Plus Anthony's late 2 run double won one game.  So I also like the 2026  Sox, especially if some of Raffy's salary helps get us another good starter.  

 

Fair enough.

I see it like this. The AL sucks, this year. We had a shot, and yes, it depended on how well our pitching does. Most of us thought our pen would suck, and it has done better than suck. Most thought our rotation was stronger and deeper than years past and that the D was better and O about the same.

Certainly, our chances get lower without Devers. He wasn't blocking any prospect or better DH in our system. Maybe we would not have made it with Devers. We'll never know, now.

I'm thinking he had to go, too, but I'm not going to sugarcoat the loss by saying he didn't help us over the last X amount of games, or that some rookie just homered, so all is good.

It's not.

We are not as good as we were 3 days ago.

Can we still win? Yes, the AL still sucks, and we still have some talent and some upside younger players. I do think adding Hicks and Harrison helped our pitching in 2025. Maybe it will be by just enough to squeak us into the dance- maybe not.

[Maxbialystock]

3 hours ago, mvp 78 said:

This must be that ORGANIZATIONAL CULTURE that Raffy was disrupting. 

Meh to both of you.  I don't care what the "organizational culture" is above manager Alex Cora.  The front office's job is to get good players who fit the needs of the team.  In case everyone has forgotten, under owner JH the Sox have won 4 WS, 1 more than anyone else during the same period (2002-now).  Plus he ended the 86 year curse.  You think that's because he and the front office were spending time in the locker room?  Give me a break.  

Raffy was pissed because he couldn't play 3b anymore and because he was lied to--all the doings of Breslow, who I completely agree did not treat Raffy well.

But whodoyawant playing 3b, Bregman or Raffy?  Raffy was great as DH, but overpriced.  Plus he was unhappy, so the trade made all kinds of sense, especially now that the pitching looks viable.  Oh, I forgot.  The pitching is better because the head shed has been talking to them in the locker room.  

[Maxbialystock]

18 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

Fair enough.

I see it like this. The AL sucks, this year. We had a shot, and yes, it depended on how well our pitching does. Most of us thought our pen would suck, and it has done better than suck. Most thought our rotation was stronger and deeper than years past and that the D was better and O about the same.

Certainly, our chances get lower without Devers. He wasn't blocking any prospect or better DH in our system. Maybe we would not have made it with Devers. We'll never know, now.

I'm thinking he had to go, too, but I'm not going to sugarcoat the loss by saying he didn't help us over the last X amount of games, or that some rookie just homered, so all is good.

It's not.

We are not as good as we were 3 days ago.

Can we still win? Yes, the AL still sucks, and we still have some talent and some upside younger players. I do think adding Hicks and Harrison helped our pitching in 2025. Maybe it will be by just enough to squeak us into the dance- maybe not.

Well, you know better than I.  So I'm happily ignorant.  The AL East is still the winningest division in MLB.  

[dgalehouse]

So far this season, Interleague play has been about even. While the N.L. has more good teams, they also have more weak teams. 

[moonslav59]

5 minutes ago, Maxbialystock said:

Well, you know better than I.  So I'm happily ignorant.  The AL East is still the winningest division in MLB.  

The NL is much better, at least with their top 4 teams and probably their next 5 or 6 are as good as the AL's. COL & PIT are really bad and MIA & WSH are pretty bad, but so are the CWS. The O's and As might be better than the worst 2-4 NL teams.

The AL has 2 teams tied for the last WC slot (BOS & CLE) but also has 5 more teams within 2.5 games of the playoffs and BAL is just 6.5 back, as bad as they have played. That shows how bad, mediocre or balanced the AL is. Choose your term.

The NL is more defined. 4 teams are 9 or more out and another is 5.5 out (ATL seems better than BAL at 6 games out.) They have 4 teams either tied of within 3 games of the last WC slot. (The AL has 7.)

This alone gives us a shot, IMO. I'm no smarter than you for believing this to be true.

[TedYazPapiMookie]

3 hours ago, king koji said:

Let's just keep one thing perfectly clear, and lots of people do this, not just you, losing Mookie is a HENRY decision, NOT a Bloom decision. 

Did Henry fire DD over Mookie's contract.  Yes.  So, Henry is ultimately responsible because his ego didn't accept that a player had the right to complain to him about his public treatment of Price.  Sound familiar?  The owner not liking the way a player reacted to something the owner did? 

I only blame Bloom because he CHOSE to be the henchman.  I am sure he knows his first job was to give Mookie away no matter what it costs the franchise and then he was to dismantle the 2018 championship roster and rebuild using TB techniques.  Nobody forced Bloom to take a job that was nothing more than a line item on his resume casting him as the villain to all Red Sox fans.  Yes, Henry is ultimately responsible but Bloom agreed to be the bad guy, so he deserves blame too.

[king koji]

1 minute ago, TedYazPapiMookie said:

Did Henry fire DD over Mookie's contract.  Yes.  So, Henry is ultimately responsible because his ego didn't accept that a player had the right to complain to him about his public treatment of Price.  Sound familiar?  The owner not liking the way a player reacted to something the owner did? 

I only blame Bloom because he CHOSE to be the henchman.  I am sure he knows his first job was to give Mookie away no matter what it costs the franchise and then he was to dismantle the 2018 championship roster and rebuild using TB techniques.  Nobody forced Bloom to take a job that was nothing more than a line item on his resume casting him as the villain to all Red Sox fans.  Yes, Henry is ultimately responsible but Bloom agreed to be the bad guy, so he deserves blame too.

So we completely agree on this matter.

[moonslav59]

15 minutes ago, TedYazPapiMookie said:

Did Henry fire DD over Mookie's contract.  Yes.  So, Henry is ultimately responsible because his ego didn't accept that a player had the right to complain to him about his public treatment of Price.  Sound familiar?  The owner not liking the way a player reacted to something the owner did? 

Did you word this as intended, or am I missing something?

[Maxbialystock]

1 hour ago, TedYazPapiMookie said:

Did Henry fire DD over Mookie's contract.  Yes.  So, Henry is ultimately responsible because his ego didn't accept that a player had the right to complain to him about his public treatment of Price.  Sound familiar?  The owner not liking the way a player reacted to something the owner did? 

I only blame Bloom because he CHOSE to be the henchman.  I am sure he knows his first job was to give Mookie away no matter what it costs the franchise and then he was to dismantle the 2018 championship roster and rebuild using TB techniques.  Nobody forced Bloom to take a job that was nothing more than a line item on his resume casting him as the villain to all Red Sox fans.  Yes, Henry is ultimately responsible but Bloom agreed to be the bad guy, so he deserves blame too.

I don't see Bloom as "henchman" and I sure don't see him as the purposeful disassembler of the 2018 Sox team.  I think he was simply put under a restrictive budget, unlike DD who pretty much had carte blanche.  The 2018 Sox had the highest payroll in MLB.  So did the 2019 team, but they didn't even make the postseason.  And that's why DD was let go.  He was going to need a whole lot more money to rebuild the pitching staff after Price and Sale went south.

Sure, Henry gets some blame, but guess what?  The same guy broke the 86 year curse and then brought home 3 more WS wins.  He owes us absolutely nothing.   Bloom got hired to do more with less, just as the Rays had been doing for over a decade.  Mookie left because the Dodgers wanted him and were ready to outbid the Sox. 

So 2020 and following have been down years except for getting to the 2021 ALCS without a closer.  Devers was our best hitter that season, but also our worst defender with a -0.9 DWAR.  Cora earned his pay that season.  

Now Breslow has been hired to right the ship and has been given more money.  Thus Crochet, Bregman, and Chapman--none of them bargains and all of them productive.  Breslow is far from perfect, but I like the direction and talent of the 2025 Sox.  

 

[Maxbialystock]

2 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

The NL is much better, at least with their top 4 teams and probably their next 5 or 6 are as good as the AL's. COL & PIT are really bad and MIA & WSH are pretty bad, but so are the CWS. The O's and As might be better than the worst 2-4 NL teams.

The AL has 2 teams tied for the last WC slot (BOS & CLE) but also has 5 more teams within 2.5 games of the playoffs and BAL is just 6.5 back, as bad as they have played. That shows how bad, mediocre or balanced the AL is. Choose your term.

The NL is more defined. 4 teams are 9 or more out and another is 5.5 out (ATL seems better than BAL at 6 games out.) They have 4 teams either tied of within 3 games of the last WC slot. (The AL has 7.)

This alone gives us a shot, IMO. I'm no smarter than you for believing this to be true.

Of course the NL is better and the AL this year is mediocre.   But the Sox play 19x4 = 76 games against AL East teams.  Plus to me that tight shot group of 6 teams in the hunt for the 3d wild card means that, even if the Sox get hot, we can expect at least 1 of the other 5 to get hot.

A good sign is that, of the those 5 teams, the Sox have the best run differential, +18.    

Giants finally win, 2-1.  No runs scored or driven in by Devers.  A pinch-hitter, Flores, drove in both runs with a double.  Cleveland now .5 games back.  

[Maxbialystock]

2 hours ago, dgalehouse said:

So far this season, Interleague play has been about even. While the N.L. has more good teams, they also have more weak teams. 

Thanks.  Had no idea.  

[moonslav59]

It seems like the Rays always play above their "on paper" expectations. I knew the Jays got better, and felt they and the Sox were the only ALE teams that did get better over the winter.

I also felt the Astros got worse, and the other good teams from 2024, DET, KCR, SEA & CLE did nothing to Wow me. That was the major reason I had hope for 2025. I liked our roster moves, but the rest of the league's mediocrity really got me liking our outlook.

The injury bug has really hit us, and I'm glad we had good depth. When you think of it, Dobbins, Narvaez, Toro, Romy and the kids were all considered depth. Wilson was looked on as our 6th or 7th Rp'er.