Article: Mookie Betts 2.0: Rafael Devers Trade Continues Harrowing Red Sox Tradition

[Bellhorn04]

6 minutes ago, TheSplinteredSplendor said:

And with the track record lately it may make other stars hesitant to sign in beantowne.

Nah, that never comes true.  Bregman took less money to come to Boston.  Crochet signed to stay.

[TheSplinteredSplendor]

6 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

Nah, that never comes true.  Bregman took less money to come to Boston.  Crochet signed to stay.

That was before they traded devers..........

[Bellhorn04]

Just now, TheSplinteredSplendor said:

That was before they traded devers..........

So what.  You think trading Devers is a bigger deal than trading Betts?

[mvp 78]

19 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

Nah, that never comes true.  Bregman took less money to come to Boston.  Crochet signed to stay.

He took the higher AAV and opt outs with Boston. It's not really apples to apples with Detroit's offer. 

[Bellhorn04]

1 minute ago, mvp 78 said:

He took the higher AAV and opt outs with Boston. It's not really apples to apples with Detroit's offer. 

It's not apples to apples but Detroit's guaranteed money was significantly more.

[mvp 78]

11 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

So what.  You think trading Devers is a bigger deal than trading Betts?

Betts only had a year left on his contract, but we hoped for an extension. Devers had another decade to go. That'd be an interesting conversation. 

I think the impact of trading Betts (and all the other nonsense over the next 5 years) softened the blow of trading Raffy 100%. 

[mvp 78]

1 minute ago, Bellhorn04 said:

It's not apples to apples but Detroit's guaranteed money was significantly more.

I think he'll wind up making more by taking the Sox offer. 

[mvp 78]

If he wanted a ring, he should have gone to DET though. Guess Breggie isn't a winner. 

[Maxbialystock]

4 hours ago, Bellhorn04 said:

The loss of Betts stands alone.  That was a grievous mistake.

Bogaerts won't earn his contract, not even close, and Devers probably won't either.

Of the three, the only one who sped their own departure was Devers.  He really let us down as a teammate and a person.  He'll be remembered more like Nomar. 

The article is total horsehockey and completely ignores the value of the Sox pitching in 2018 and of course forgets that JDM was crucial to the big improvement in hitting and scoring runs in 2018.  

It also completely misunderstands what happened with Betts.  The 2019 season was a watershed season for JH because they had the highest payroll in MLB and didn't even make the postseason.   If JH had decided to keep Dombrowski and Betts and Sale and Price and all those other guys, it would have cost him a bundle more than he was already paying with absolutely no guarantee of future success because 2019 revealed that the rotation, especially Sale and Price, was kaput.  

I'm not saying bringing in Chaim Bloom was smart, but am saying it was understandable.   With Chaim came a progressively lower payroll and a steadfast reluctance to pay big bucks for any starter.   Plus Betts had to go, not so much because he asked for too much, but because, if the Sox had matched the Dodgers offer, theDodgers would have raised their offer(s) until the Sox gave up.  The Dodgers and Yankees are far wealthier than the Sox, who are simply not able to outbid either of them.  

Interestingly, as the payroll went down, so did the attendance which peaked in 2019, the season following the magnificent 2018 season, at 36,106 (7th highest in MLB).  Then covid hit which definitely affected 2020 and 2021.  In 2022 it was back up to 32,408 (10th in MLB), in 2023 32,989 (12th), last year 32,939 (11th), and this year so far 32,818 (9th).  Four straight seasons of not breaking the 33K barrier.  

I'm guessing JH decided to get the attendance and TV ratings back up, which meant getting a new CBO and changing his policy about salaries.  It's pretty obvious the new policy and new CBO, Breslow, didn't have much effect on salaries or attendance last year. 

This year, with the addition of pricey and talented Bregman, Crochet, and Chapman, the attendance is still under 33K.  just a tad better than 2022.   My guess is that JH is willing to give Breslow more time if only because the Sox are still overpaying Story and Yoshida, both acquired by CB.  And maybe that's why Devers was let go--at $30M/year he is definitely and overpaid DH.  Plus I have to admit he was no longer happy here and maybe his teammates weren't either.  

Bottom line:  we are definitely in a rebuild and one which holds some hope thanks to the likes of Anthony, Mayer, Campbell, Narvaez and others.  As I've already said elsewhere, the Sox 8-2 run against the Yankees and Rays occurred without Bregman and with Devers going 5/25 with 2 rbi's.  So give some credit to Breslow for Chapman, Bregman, Crochet and especially Narvaez, a truly great steal from the Yankees.  Also to Cora for his skillful management of a team in transition.  

About Cora, the idiot who persuaded Devers to embrace the DH position.  Anyone want to guess where the Giants will use him?  Anyone?  DH, of course.  Yet right now the big story seems to be that the Giants stole the magnificent Devers and the Sox are just stupid.  

 

 

 

[Bellhorn04]

1 minute ago, mvp 78 said:

Betts only had a year left on his contract, but we hoped for an extension. Devers had another decade to go. That'd be an interesting conversation. 

I think the impact of trading Betts (and all the other nonsense over the next 5 years) softened the blow of trading Raffy 100%. 

I don't know, man.  A lot of people sure made a big deal out of Raffy's attitude the last few months.

I think the team got backed into a corner by him.  He was kind of thumbing his nose at them.  That's not good when you have 8+ years left to pay him.

[king koji]

I just love the unwarranted hysterics about losing Xander. That was like a gift from above that keeps on giving. We should have re-signed Mookie, so we are merely 1-1 so far at this. We will see what happens with Chunky.

[TheSplinteredSplendor]

17 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

So what.  You think trading Devers is a bigger deal than trading Betts?

No, but it adds to their latest history as to how they treat their homegrown stars.

And the team in no way, shape or form got better with this trade.

If I'm a free agent chasing a title then I certainly wouldn't have beantowne near the top of my list.

[mvp 78]

3 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

I don't know, man.  A lot of people sure made a big deal out of Raffy's attitude the last few months.

I think the team got backed into a corner by him.  He was kind of thumbing his nose at them.  That's not good when you have 8+ years left to pay him.

I don't necessarily agree with a lot of the people on here. 

[Bellhorn04]

Just now, TheSplinteredSplendor said:

No, but it adds to their latest history as to how they treat their homegrown stars.

And the team in no way, shape or form got better with this trade.

If I'm a free agent chasing a title then I certainly wouldn't have beantowne near the top of my list.

Yeah, well, at the end of the day not many free agents turn down the highest offer.

[TheSplinteredSplendor]

8 minutes ago, Maxbialystock said:

 Yet right now the big story seems to be that the Giants stole the magnificent Devers and the Sox are just stupid.  

Well, they didn't really get all that much for him.

[mvp 78]

7 minutes ago, Maxbialystock said:

Bottom line:  we are definitely in a rebuild and one which holds some hope

About Cora, the idiot who persuaded Devers to embrace the DH position.  Anyone want to guess where the Giants will use him? 

A 6 year rebuild!!!

1B/DH!

[Jasonbay44]

3 minutes ago, TheSplinteredSplendor said:

No, but it adds to their latest history as to how they treat their homegrown stars.

And the team in no way, shape or form got better with this trade.

If I'm a free agent chasing a title then I certainly wouldn't have beantowne near the top of my list.

I also dont think I’d have a team who just got swept by an inept team this weekend high on my list. The same team that lost a bidding war to another team in the same state for a superstar player… 

[mvp 78]

1 minute ago, Bellhorn04 said:

Yeah, well, at the end of the day not many free agents turn down the highest offer.

Remember, the Sox are interest kings and aren't typically the bidders with the highest offer. You know this! 

[Bellhorn04]

1 minute ago, TheSplinteredSplendor said:

Well, they didn't really get all that much for him.

They got $250 million off the books.  That's a pile of money for a DH. 

[Jasonbay44]

2 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

Remember, the Sox are interest kings and aren't typically the bidders with the highest offer. You know this! 

The Red Sox are interested in this post! 

[Bellhorn04]

2 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

Remember, the Sox are interest kings and aren't typically the bidders with the highest offer. You know this! 

Getting the extension done with Crochet warmed me up to the organization a bit.  I think they're trying again.

[harmony]

3 hours ago, mvp 78 said:

Sox took the very first offer they got and shipped him out of town. So smart! 🙃

Perhaps the Red Sox had been shopping Rafael Devers since May 9 when the club's top officials met with Devers in Kansas City.

Perhaps after five weeks of testing the market the Sox took the best offer.

Or not.

[TheSplinteredSplendor]

2 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

Yeah, well, at the end of the day not many free agents turn down the highest offer.

Well, we'll see if beantowne puts out the highest offers. That's not exactly something they are known for.

[TheSplinteredSplendor]

8 minutes ago, Jasonbay44 said:

I also dont think I’d have a team who just got swept by an inept team this weekend high on my list. The same team that lost a bidding war to another team in the same state for a superstar player… 

Except that team has a track record of paying top dollar and consistently making the playoffs.

Big difference.

[mvp 78]

6 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

Getting the extension done with Crochet warmed me up to the organization a bit.  I think they're trying again.

And then what did they do a few months later? 

[TheSplinteredSplendor]

7 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

They got $250 million off the books.  That's a pile of money for a DH. 

Which only matters if they spend it wisely or at all. 

We'll see.

[mvp 78]

5 minutes ago, harmony said:

Perhaps the Red Sox had been shopping Rafael Devers since May 9 when the club's top officials met with Devers in Kansas City.

Perhaps after five weeks of testing the market the Sox took the best offer.

Or not.

I mean, needing JH to fly out to calm things down (LOL) isn't a good look for Cora and Breslow. Those two need to get on the same page. Henry loves Cora, but he can't fire Breslow because nobody else wants the job. 😬

[TedYazPapiMookie]

3 hours ago, mvp 78 said:

Saying that "they won't earn their contract" is ridiculous at this point. People were saying that when Betts signed his deal with the Dodgers and his contract now looks like a steal. Devers deal looks cheap compared to what Vlad signed for. I'd rather have Vlad than Devers 100%. Soto signed for 700M! Devers contract is half of that, but we're worried that his contract is "underwater." Total BS. 

Devers is being paid $5Million over the going rate for DHs so it's already underwater.  Now here are some facts that should be considered to prove ti's WAY UNDERWAY.

1 - Mookie spent 5 full seasons in Boston with a 42.5 WAR if you believe in WAR.  His OPS+ was 137.  He won a GG four years, was an all-star starting at 23 for four years, he won an MVP and finished 2nd, 6th, 8th and 19th his other 4 seasons.  He won a silver slugger 3 times in the five seasons.  Those achievements should have earned him $36Million a year but he got low-balled and then given away.

Devers stats part way into his 9th seasons (7 full ones and 2 partial) are 24.9 WAR and a 129 OPS+.  Significantly lower than Mookie!!  Until he was finally dragged off 3B with a career .944 fielding percentage when league average was .961 (17 below league average) and a Rdrs of -61, Devers actual value was below his offensive value which was simply a little above league average.

2 - #1 shows it would be a stretch at his current production level for the contract to be a break even.  Now take the highly unlikely chance that he fulfills his contract and guess the drop off rate over time.  Two players far greater than Devers (Pujols and Cabrera) both came into the league around the same age as Devers.  Both had far better numbers through age 26.  A 10-year contract starting at 27 should last through his 36-year-old season.  Pujols stopped putting up monster numbers after his 32-year-old season.  His OPS+ dropped from 136 his lowest number until then to 121.  His WAR dropped from 4.8 to 1.6 and never made it back to 4.8.  Cabrera who was the next great hitter after Pujols.  Cabrera stopped producing after his 33-year-old season.  He went from an OPS+ of 155 to 93.  He only had 2 over 100 the next 7 seasons and one was 128 and the other was 104.  The drop was dramatic, overnight.  His WAR dropped from 4.9 to -0,9.  Most of his remaining years were negative with 0.3 his highest.

BOTH great players who are far superior in hitting to Devers fell off the table with respect to their offense after age 32 and 33.  Considering how much better than Devers they are I predicted Devers dramatic drop off would happen after his 31-yr old season.  Thus 32 to 36 or 1/2 his contract would be completely under water.  A total waste.  That's roughly $150 Million in payroll wasted. 

This trade was a miracle.  Breslow should have earned HUGE brownie points with ownership.  He saved the Red Sox a ton of money, improved the clubhouse and opened up the doors for more effective use of that same money.

So it's not total BS.  The contract, best case, would have fallen at least $150Million short from a performance standpoint.  Soto and Guerrero are separate cases just like Mookie was.  The big difference with Mookie is that Mookie stays in shape and is a great athlete so at age 39 he'll be much better than Devers at age 32!!!  He's the Tom Brady of baseball.  He's still bowling 300 on a regular basis.  Physical conditioning won't be why Mookie's skill will finally drop off near 40,

[king koji]

53 minutes ago, TheSplinteredSplendor said:

No, but it adds to their latest history as to how they treat their homegrown stars.

And the team in no way, shape or form got better with this trade.

If I'm a free agent chasing a title then I certainly wouldn't have beantowne near the top 

 

[TheSplinteredSplendor]

Just now, king koji said:

Right, like Bregman and Chapman showed recently....good analysis. 

Again, that was before they traded devers. Smh......