Article: Jarren Duran's Defense Could Get Him Shipped Out Of Boston

[Alex Mayes]

Anyone connected to the Boston Red Sox in some capacity wanted Jarren Duran to return to his All-Star, MVP-vote-getting 2024 form when the 2025 season began. So far, about a quarter of the way through the season, we’ve all been left wanting much, much more. Sure, I’ll give you that Duran hit a two-run home run in Saturday’s come-from-behind win against the Braves. Does that inspire confidence in him moving forward, though? Maybe a bit, but he has to go on an extended run offensively for there to be any real belief that the changes are effective.

As Maddie Landis wrote last week, Duran has altered his batting stance in a way that is likely contributing to his downward-trending offensive performance this season. Duran has always been a tinkerer, and he’s recently re-added the leg kick that helped him find his power last season, so there’s a reason for optimism, but the bigger Duran problem for the Red Sox is actually his defense. 

Last year, Duran was an All-Star left fielder because of his range of contributions on both sides of the ball. This year, though, his defense has taken a significant step backwards. He leads all Boston outfielders with three errors, his range has taken a significant nosedive, and his arm value (via Baseball Savant) went from a scorching-hot 86th percentile to an ice-cold 25th. On top of leading all outfielders in errors, Duran also has the lowest outs above average of all the outfielders at negative two. His expected catch percentage is sitting at 88%, but his actual catch percentage is two percent lower at 86%. The last time he had a lower actual catch percentage than his expected percentage was 2022, the lowest point of his career. I’m not trying to equate that season to this season, as he’s proven since then that he’s a far better player, but it’s notable. 

What stands out though, is the amount of balls he hasn’t caught that have high catch probabilities. If we look at his responsible plays for 2025, we see a worrying trend. 

I’ve added the yellow highlights to the chart to show where Duran had a 99% chance of catching the ball and the play wasn’t made. So far, it’s only five plays, but that's still five plays where Duran should be expected to make the play every single time and he failed. Combine this with his range nosedive, and it’s not an out-there assumption to make that we’re seeing him lose a step on defense. It’s likely that soon we won’t be able to see him make up for bad routes to balls with his incredible speed. 

We need to remember that Duran is 28 years old — he’s the oldest member of the ‘young core’ of the team. He and Rafael Devers are the same age, even though it seems like Devers should be far older. If the goal is actually to get younger across the diamond, and that seems to be the initiative the front office is chasing, then it makes us (or at least me) wonder about Duran’s future in Boston.

I don’t think he should be benched, yet. Let’s give him time to get readjusted to his added leg kick and try to figure things out defensively. I’ll stand by my take that I think Duran needs to be traded. Even with a down year, he will bring in a bigger haul than anyone not named Roman Anthony or Marcelo Mayer. I don’t foresee that happening until the offseason though. So, for now, Duran needs to get back to making good jumps and covering lots of ground with his speed, lest he be relegated to being a bench piece when Roman Anthony finally gets the call up to the major league team.

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[harmony]

How will a defensively challenged player whose hitting is trending downward “bring in a big[] haul”?

The flaws are likely apparent to potential trade partners as well.

[mvp 78]

1 minute ago, harmony said:

How will a defensively challenged player whose hitting is trending downward “bring in a big[] haul”?

The flaws are likely apparent to potential trade partners as well.

I think you could trade him for a late inning MLB reliever and a decent MiLB prospect and be happy with hit. 

[moonslav59]

Players do have fielding slumps, but Duran has been all over the map on D... kinda like his offense.

Maybe, he'll come around.

I'm wondering if he's been distracted, which affects focus.

[Old Red]

40 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

I think you could trade him for a late inning MLB reliever and a decent MiLB prospect and be happy with hit. 

I mentioned trading him this past offseason when his value was high coming off last season, but it wasn’t received to well on here. 

[harmony]

1 hour ago, harmony said:

How will a defensively challenged player whose hitting is trending downward “bring in a big[] haul”?

The flaws are likely apparent to potential trade partners as well.

Would three-plus years of 28-year-old Jarren Duran, working off his 2025 salary of $3.75 million, command a greater return in trade than four-plus years of 25-year-old Wilyer Abreu, who won't be arbitration eligible until after the 2026 season?

[mvp 78]

3 minutes ago, harmony said:

Would three-plus years of 28-year-old Jarren Duran, working off his 2025 salary of $3.75 million, command a greater return in trade than four-plus years of 25-year-old Wilyer Abreu, who won't be arbitration eligible until after the 2026 season?

Are you making the trade strictly for return? I don't think the Sox are looking at it that way. 

[harmony]

4 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

Are you making the trade strictly for return? I don't think the Sox are looking at it that way. 

No. Simply responding to the blog's opinion:  Even with a down year, he will bring in a bigger haul than anyone not named Roman Anthony or Marcelo Mayer.

[TedYazPapiMookie]

It appears there is a small group of haters in the ranks.

Duran was the team's best player until Bregman showed up.  To complain about his defense after watching Devers butcher so many more plays is absurd.  The guy is a league average defender and an elite lead-off man on offense.  He happens to be in a slump that he will come out of when he makes his adjustments.  You have to be a Duran hater to exaggerate the situation as much as the writer and some of the responders have exaggerated it.  You folks have such short memories.  When the ownership dumped Mookie the team floundered without a lead-off hitter to replace Mookie.  Duran was a godsend.  Still is.  But this is typical of segments of Boston fans who are biased.  I remember JD coming to Boston and being the piece that replaced Papi.  2017 didn't end in a Ring becaus Houston cheated AND Boston was missing a lynch pin like Papi to secure the offense.  Enter JD.  A few years later, people were complaining about a $22Million a year salary.  Now we pay DHs over $30Million a year!!  It's all in the eye of the beholder and the bias of the beholder.

Some players in Boston are loved for no reason other than who they know, and others are hated.  We've seen this over the years.  Mookie was hated by the front office then he became a MVP and he was acceptable but not loved by them.  Only the fans loved him for what he contributed to Boston winning.  Duran was hated like Mookie when Duran made it to the MLB and struggled on a couple plays on national TV.  He got sent down but not before a group of haters emerged.  He came back like Mookie with a break-out year, and an all-star status and the haters still persist and scrutinize every little thing he does wrong, and they make mountains out of mole hills.

Too bad fans can't be objective in their criticism.  Whan a player is defensively the worst in the history of the game, and they want to move the guy from 3rd to 1st, that just shows you the brains get turned off and the hearts are all that matter.  The guy has no business owning a glove based on 14 seasons of failure data back to his days in the Dominican Republic Baseball Academy. 

Haters will be haters.  Facts don't matter in their arguments.  It's a part of fandom but hopefully there are many who will stick up for Duran because as I mentioned, he's the second most talented player on the team right now and his numbers and achievements document that fact.  I believe most Boston fans will be routing for him to continue his turn around just like most fans will be rooting for Bregman to get hot again and for Devers to not regress from his hot state to his cold state. 

[mvp 78]

5 hours ago, harmony said:

No. Simply responding to the blog's opinion:  Even with a down year, he will bring in a bigger haul than anyone not named Roman Anthony or Marcelo Mayer.

Oh, the list is A LOT longer than just Roman Anthony and Marcelo Mayer... 

Duran is good, but I think the following guys have more trade value:

Crochet

Campbell

Abreu

Bregman

Maybe:

Devers

Fitts

Dobbins

Rafaela

Bello

 

[harmony]

19 minutes ago, TedYazPapiMookie said:

It appears there is a small group of haters in the ranks.

Duran was the team's best player until Bregman showed up.  To complain about his defense after watching Devers butcher so many more plays is absurd.  The guy is a league average defender and an elite lead-off man on offense.  He happens to be in a slump that he will come out of when he makes his adjustments.  You have to be a Duran hater to exaggerate the situation as much as the writer and some of the responders have exaggerated it.  You folks have such short memories.  When the ownership dumped Mookie the team floundered without a lead-off hitter to replace Mookie.  Duran was a godsend.  Still is.  But this is typical of segments of Boston fans who are biased.  I remember JD coming to Boston and being the piece that replaced Papi.  2017 didn't end in a Ring becaus Houston cheated AND Boston was missing a lynch pin like Papi to secure the offense.  Enter JD.  A few years later, people were complaining about a $22Million a year salary.  Now we pay DHs over $30Million a year!!  It's all in the eye of the beholder and the bias of the beholder.

Some players in Boston are loved for no reason other than who they know, and others are hated.  We've seen this over the years.  Mookie was hated by the front office then he became a MVP and he was acceptable but not loved by them.  Only the fans loved him for what he contributed to Boston winning.  Duran was hated like Mookie when Duran made it to the MLB and struggled on a couple plays on national TV.  He got sent down but not before a group of haters emerged.  He came back like Mookie with a break-out year, and an all-star status and the haters still persist and scrutinize every little thing he does wrong, and they make mountains out of mole hills.

Too bad fans can't be objective in their criticism.  Whan a player is defensively the worst in the history of the game, and they want to move the guy from 3rd to 1st, that just shows you the brains get turned off and the hearts are all that matter.  The guy has no business owning a glove based on 14 seasons of failure data back to his days in the Dominican Republic Baseball Academy. 

Haters will be haters.  Facts don't matter in their arguments.  It's a part of fandom but hopefully there are many who will stick up for Duran because as I mentioned, he's the second most talented player on the team right now and his numbers and achievements document that fact.  I believe most Boston fans will be routing for him to continue his turn around just like most fans will be rooting for Bregman to get hot again and for Devers to not regress from his hot state to his cold state. 

Bias indeed is welcome on this forum, as evidenced by the response above.

Jarren Duran has compiled 9.3 fWAR and a wRC+ pf 110 in 400 career games as the outfielder approaches his 29th birthday in September. Last year Duran posted 6.7 fWAR in 160 games; in his other 240 MLB games, Duran has posted 2.6 fWAR.

This year Duran has posted 0.6 fWAR and a wRC+ of 97 in 47 games. Steamer projects Duran with rest-of-season WAR and wRC+ of 1.7 and 105 in 103 games while ZiPS projects Duran with WAR and wRC+ of 2.0 and 110 in 107 games:

https://www.fangraphs.com/players/jarren-duran/24617/stats?position=OF#dashboard

By those more objective standards, Duran is a solid MLB player. However, no one should expect a repeat of Duran's 2024 performance.

[TedYazPapiMookie]

1 hour ago, harmony said:

Bias indeed is welcome on this forum, as evidenced by the response above.

Jarren Duran has compiled 9.3 fWAR and a wRC+ pf 110 in 400 career games as the outfielder approaches his 29th birthday in September. Last year Duran posted 6.7 fWAR in 160 games; in his other 240 MLB games, Duran has posted 2.6 fWAR.

This year Duran has posted 0.6 fWAR and a wRC+ of 97 in 47 games. Steamer projects Duran with rest-of-season WAR and wRC+ of 1.7 and 105 in 103 games while ZiPS projects Duran with WAR and wRC+ of 2.0 and 110 in 107 games:

https://www.fangraphs.com/players/jarren-duran/24617/stats?position=OF#dashboard

By those more objective standards, Duran is a solid MLB player. However, no one should expect a repeat of Duran's 2024 performance.

Your opinion of his future is valid to you.  I for one, don't have any idea what he will due in the future because trends are inaccurate.  But patterns in baseball can be observed.  Players go through hot and cold streaks.  Players must adjust throughout the season based on how opponents are approaching them with their pitching staff.  

Fangraphs GUESSES have absolutely no validity because like me they don't know the future so it's nothing more than a likely faulty opinion just like mine would be.

As a fan, I simply root for slumps to end and success to be as great as possible for each Red Sox player.  

Now, help me with your first comment?  When I provide data about Duran's performance, is that biased?

After Mookie got shipped was Duran not a godsend because he filled a hole that had been killing the team for years?  Does presenting facts about Duran that contradict comments made in the previous comment or the article make me biased or does it introduce a sense of fairness in the treatment of Duran?  Was your comment meant to be a cheap shot?  It sure seems like it.  Apparently, that is a trend on this website.  Open with an insult and then make your point.

[harmony]

13 minutes ago, TedYazPapiMookie said:

Your opinion of his future is valid to you.  I for one, don't have any idea what he will due in the future because trends are inaccurate.  But patterns in baseball can be observed.  Players go through hot and cold streaks.  Players must adjust throughout the season based on how opponents are approaching them with their pitching staff.  

Fangraphs GUESSES have absolutely no validity because like me they don't know the future so it's nothing more than a likely faulty opinion just like mine would be.

As a fan, I simply root for slumps to end and success to be as great as possible for each Red Sox player.  

Now, help me with your first comment?  When I provide data about Duran's performance, is that biased?

After Mookie got shipped was Duran not a godsend because he filled a hole that had been killing the team for years?  Does presenting facts about Duran that contradict comments made in the previous comment or the article make me biased or does it introduce a sense of fairness in the treatment of Duran?  Was your comment meant to be a cheap shot?  It sure seems like it.  Apparently, that is a trend on this website.  Open with an insult and then make your point.

Thank you for the response.

Data is always welcome; the larger the sample the better. And in modern baseball some statistics are deemed more relevant than others.

Some posts are remarkably void of statistics:

https://talksox.com/profile/33568-tedyazpapimookie/

... while others frequently cite stats:

https://talksox.com/profile/32613-harmony/

We all have the privilege of assigning appropriate weight to the data of an established site such as FanGraphs and to the opinions of an anonymous dude on the internet.

Welcome to the forum. Suggested rules to live by:

1. Avoid the use of I and you in posts

2. Make an exception to Rule No. 1 to pay a poster a compliment

3. Provide data that the reader can incorporate or ignore in reaching a conclusion (or no conclusion at all)

4. Arrive at the forum with the goal of learning through the exchange of ideas, not with a goal of winning arguments

Take note of this quote attributed to Eleanor Roosevelt: Great minds discuss ideas; average minds discuss events; small minds discuss people

Be well.