A Realistic View of the 2025 Red Sox: Part II

[Larry Cook]

7 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

My guess is Fitts will be demoted when Slaten is ready.

This pen could be pretty damn good:

Chapman

Slaten & Whitlock

Wilson & Weissert

Bernardino & Matz

(Hicks is out of options, so I guess we are stuck with him.)

Hicks is pitching with a sore toe.  Ask to the disabled list for him 

[notin]

15 minutes ago, Larry Cook said:

Hicks is pitching with a sore toe.  Ask to the disabled list for him 

Whats a “disabled list”?  Is that for like Ray Charles or John Callahan?

[mvp 78]

6 hours ago, notin said:

Whats a “disabled list”?  Is that for like Ray Charles or John Callahan?

MLB changed it because of woke. 😾

[moonslav59]

3 hours ago, mvp 78 said:

MLB changed it because of woke. 😾

You need to chill!

LOL!

[mvp 78]

18 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

You need to chill!

LOL!

You need to learn what a joke is. 

[moonslav59]

There is less than 20% of the season remaining. The Sox have 34 games remaining.

15 at home: 3 v PIT, CLE. NYY, ATH & ending the season v DET

19 on the road: 3 v NYY, 4 v BAL, then 3 v AZ, ATH, TBR & TOR

Once we get past this road trip, we will have 15 at home and 13 on the road. We face enough WC contenders to basically have our fate in our own hands. Beat NYY & CLE and the road gets way easier!

[moonslav59]

Just now, mvp 78 said:

You need to learn what a joke is. 

Like I said, pot meet kettle, as mine was a joke.

🤣

[notin]

4 hours ago, mvp 78 said:

MLB changed it because of woke. 😾

I hear it’s not woke enough and I hear they’re going to change it again to the LPWBB (List of Players With Boo Boos)

[moonslav59]

Back to baseball: here is one way of viewing how good are players are in comparison to others in MLB. There are 30 teams and 13 everyday players per team. That's 390 players, and to get to that sample size, the cut off is 120 PAs for 2025. The 195th player (the median) in MLB is a 0.9 fWAR. That makes a 1.0 fWAR "above the median."

The Sox have 8 players above 1.0:

3.4 Bregman (top 30)

3.1 Duran (top 45)

3.1 Rafaela (top 45)

2.7 Abreu (nearly top 60)

2.5 Narvaez (top 70)

2.4 Story (top 80)

2.3 Anthony (top 90 in just 59 games!)

1.2 Romy (top 160 in just 69 gms)

_______

0.8 Refsnyder (just 157 PAs!)

The median pitcher is at about 0.7, and we have 6 pitchers above that...

5.0 Crochet (3rd best in MLB)

1.9 Chapman (best closer in the AL)

1.4 Whitlock (best 1-2 punch in the AL)

1.3 Bello (65th best SP in MLB)

1.2 Giolito (77th best)

0.9 Dobbins (IL)

0.8 Wilson

0.5 Bernardino

0.2 Weissert & Fitts

[moonslav59]

32 minutes ago, notin said:

I hear it’s not woke enough and I hear they’re going to change it again to the LPWBB (List of Players With Boo Boos)

LMAO!

[SPLENDIDSPLINTER]

1 hour ago, moonslav59 said:

LMAO!

Some NFL teams during the season have less injuries than this Sox team.

[mvp 78]

 

[moonslav59]

Here are the teams we have struggled with, so far, this year:

0-3 MIL & DET (We end the year w 3 vs DET)

1-5 LAA (WTF?!? There is always one like them.)

3-7 TOR (We have 3 more at TOR, right before we play DET to end the season)

1-2 CHC, PHI, SDP & SFG

3-4 TEX

4-5 BAL (We play them next for 4.)

 

Our best records vs...

8-2 TBR (3 more with them)

6-1 NYY (5 more with them)

3-0 STL, WSN & COL

4-2 HOU, KCR

2-1 LAD, NYM, MIA, CIN, CLE (3 more w CLE)

4-3 CHW

 

Teams we have yet to play...

6 v ATH

3 v PIT

[moonslav59]

We've used 31 pitchers, including Toro and Eaton, and another 8 or 9 guys are either gone or out for the year with an injury.

Here are the OPS Against numbers for those who may still pitch, this season for the Sox:

.384 Chapman is an absurd number (.192 OBP and SLG) He's let up 5 XBHs in 182 PAs Against!

.465 Slaten has been sorely missed. (3 XBHs allowed in 90 PAS)

.479 Matz in just 31 PAs Against, but still...

.530 Guerrero in 72- not sure if he'll be back.

.556 Whitlock in 242 (most PAs Against by a RP)

.558 Bernardino in 194- welcome back Brennan!

.606 Crochet in 637- excellent for a SP'er!

.614 Murphy in 89- still walking a ton of batters in AAA.

.651 Weissert in 224- underappreciated season.

.680 Bello in 539- nice improvement, this year. (.724 in '24)

.711 Wilson- heading downwards.

.714 Giolito in 466- not too bad!

.721 D May (71)- nice get by Brez, so far.

.787 Fitts (177)- gotta do better to stay around.

.788 Kelly (103)- not sure he gets another '25 look.

.797 Hicks (75)- thought it would be worse.

.809 Criswell (80) .773 as a SP

.823 Buehler (498)- may be losing his spot.

.974 I Campbell- may be done for 2025.

When Slaten returns, does Fitts get demoted? Could Fitts, Criswell or even harrison unseat Buehler?

 

[SPLENDIDSPLINTER]

11 hours ago, mvp 78 said:

MLB changed it because of woke. 😾

Please don't get political because I would love to get political. Btw, the opposite of Woke is Asleep.

[moonslav59]

We've used 31 pitchers, including Toro and Eaton, and another 8 or 9 guys are either gone or out for the year with an injury.

Here are the OPS Against numbers for those who may still pitch, this season for the Sox:

.384 Chapman is an absurd number (.192 OBP and SLG) He's let up 5 XBHs in 182 PAs Against!

.465 Slaten has been sorely missed. (3 XBHs allowed in 90 PAS)

.479 Matz in just 31 PAs Against, but still...

.530 Guerrero in 72- not sure if he'll be back.

.556 Whitlock in 242 (most PAs Against by a RP)

.558 Bernardino in 194- welcome back Brennan!

.606 Crochet in 637- excellent for a SP'er!

.614 Murphy in 89- still walking a ton of batters in AAA.

.651 Weissert in 224- underappreciated season.

.680 Bello in 539- nice improvement, this year. (.724 in '24)

.711 Wilson- heading downwards.

.714 Giolito in 466- not too bad!

.721 D May (71)- nice get by Brez, so far.

.787 Fitts (177)- gotta do better to stay around.

.788 Kelly (103)- not sure he gets another '25 look.

.797 Hicks (75)- thought it would be worse.

.809 Criswell (80) .773 as a SP

.823 Buehler (498)- may be losing his spot.

.974 I Campbell- may be done for 2025.

When Slaten returns, does Fitts get demoted? 

 

[moonslav59]

Well, we passed the Yanks, again. Maybe we can hold on, this time.

We still have a shot at the ALE and are 5 GB TOR. We play them in SEPT.

The WC race is close:

70-59 BOS

69-59 NYY

69-60 SEA

_____

66-63 KCR -3.0 (-4 from BOS)

64-63 CLE -4.0

[moonslav59]

Just heard the Sox will not face Trevor Rogers in the BAL series. That's good news.

[moonslav59]

Had I said Story would be 7th in the AL in RBI on August 23rd, back in March, April and May, I'd be called crazy.

Nice turn-around Trevor!

[notin]

1 hour ago, moonslav59 said:

Had I said Story would be 7th in the AL in RBI on August 23rd, back in March, April and May, I'd be called crazy.

Nice turn-around Trevor!

My Cubs fan daughter think he is a lock for AL Comeback Player of the Year.   Bo Bichette might have a better argument …

[moonslav59]

16 minutes ago, notin said:

My Cubs fan daughter think he is a lock for AL Comeback Player of the Year.   Bo Bichette might have a better argument …

Story hardly played, but a close call.

OPS improvements:

210 Bichette (330 more PAs)

165 Bregman (180 less PAs)

same Story (410 more PAs)

[moonslav59]

Not many teams can match our top 3 SP'ers and top 2 RP'ers:

2.38 Crochet

3.07 Bello

3.72 Giolito

1.08 Chapman

2.72 Whitlock

[moonslav59]

TOR scored 1 in the 10th, 11th and 12th to squeak by MIA 7-6.

DET is up 3-2 on KCR in the 7th.

HOU is up 5-2 on BAL early on.

TEX is up 3-0 on CLE in the 3rd.

We gained on NYY, but we may not on the others.

[moonslav59]

Read somewhere the Sox are considering adding Tolle to the 40 and calling him up.

[moonslav59]

DET beat KCR to add another game to the WC lead.

CLE is getting drilled 10-0, and BAL had tied up HOU 7-7 in the 6th.

I'm hoping we can pass HOU, as I see SEA as the likely ALW winner, this year.

[Maxbialystock]

5 hours ago, notin said:

My Cubs fan daughter think he is a lock for AL Comeback Player of the Year.   Bo Bichette might have a better argument …

Still . . .

[Larry Cook]

4 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

Read somewhere the Sox are considering adding Tolle to the 40 and calling him up.

Holy-Tolle just pitched yesterday??  Isn’t Monday Harrison’s 5th day since he pitched??

[moonslav59]

12 hours ago, Larry Cook said:

Holy-Tolle just pitched yesterday??  Isn’t Monday Harrison’s 5th day since he pitched??

Tolle won't be starting for the Sox on Monday. I think it might be a pen game, if we don't overuse them, today. Otherwise, I think we go with Fitts, since he's on the 26, now. 

Harrison might "deserve" it more than Fitts, but based on what? Just to give him a fresh look?

It would be nice to get 6 or 7 IP from May, tonight. It was great not needing Chapman or Whitlock, yesterday and this is a night after day game, too. Weissert just threw 13 pitches, so he could probably pitch, again. Wilson is dropping in the high leverage role, so not using him might be a plus, tonight.

Slaten may be ready for a promotion by the time Tolle could get a start, so with the addition of Buehler to the pen, we could see a major shift in the make-up of the pen and rotation.

Since the deadline, we might see:

Rotation: May>Buehler and Tolle/Harrison>Fitts

Pen: Matz> Murphy, Buehler > I Campbell and Slaten> Moran/Kelly/Hicks (Hicks to IL??? He is out of options.)

That's 5 of 13 slots changed out, with those 5 still here as depth in AAA.

 

[moonslav59]

Here are the WAR leaders on the Sox (avg bWAR & fWAR- rounding up)

5.3 Crochet (5.2, 5.3)

3.8 Bregman (4.1, 3.5)

3.4 Duran (3.7, 3.1)

3.3 Rafaela (3.6, 2.9)

3.0 Story (3.3, 2.6)

3.0 Abreu (3.3, 2.7)

2.9 Narvaez (3.0, 2.7)

2.5 Chapman (2.9, 2.0)

2.5 Anthony (2.6, 2.3)

1.9 Bello (2.3, 1.5)

1.5 Whitlock (1.4, 1.5)

1.2 Giolito (1.1, 1.3)

1.1 Romy (1.1, 1.1)

1.0 Refsnyder (1.2, 0.8)

0.6 Wilson (0.4, 0.6)

0.5 Weissert (0.6, 0.3)

 

 

 

[SPLENDIDSPLINTER]

5 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

Tolle won't be starting for the Sox on Monday. I think it might be a pen game, if we don't overuse them, today. Otherwise, I think we go with Fitts, since he's on the 26, now. 

Harrison might "deserve" it more than Fitts, but based on what? Just to give him a fresh look?

It would be nice to get 6 or 7 IP from May, tonight. It was great not needing Chapman or Whitlock, yesterday and this is a night after day game, too. Weissert just threw 13 pitches, so he could probably pitch, again. Wilson is dropping in the high leverage role, so not using him might be a plus, tonight.

Slaten may be ready for a promotion by the time Tolle could get a start, so with the addition of Buehler to the pen, we could see a major shift in the make-up of the pen and rotation.

Since the deadline, we might see:

Rotation: May>Buehler and Tolle/Harrison>Fitts

Pen: Matz> Murphy, Buehler > I Campbell and Slaten> Moran/Kelly/Hicks (Hicks to IL??? He is out of options.)

That's 5 of 13 slots changed out, with those 5 still here as depth in AAA.

 

Slaten is the reliever version of Paxton.