Article: Red Sox Week in Review: 10 Spring Training Takeaways

[Daniel Fox]

With the first spring training games in the books, Ceddanne Rafaela looks more patient, Richard Fitts looks nastier, Alex Bregman looks like Alex Bregman, and more.

We are now a week and a half into spring training, and with a few notable exceptions, we have had the chance to see most of the players in contention for a roster spot. Now, just to be clear, I do not care about spring training roster spots, but that doesn’t mean we can’t learn things in these exhibition games. From a new stance to a reworked pitch, spring training is the first place where players can display what they have focused on in the off-season. Here are my ten biggest takeaways for the first quarter of spring training action.

1. The player who has stood out the most to me so far is Ceddanne Rafaela.
This isn’t because he’s 5-for-11 with a home run, but rather because of his approach at the plate. I was happy to hear that both Rafaela and the coaching staff made it a point of emphasis this offseason, and the early results have been eye-opening.

There were two at-bats on Saturday in particular that really emphasized the new approach. Facing left-hander Danny Coulombe in the fourth inning, Rafaela took two pitches out of the zone before getting a fastball down the middle and lining it down the left-field line. Then in the sixth, he was able to lay off a 2-2 slider in the dirt to earn a more hittable slider that he was able to poke into center field.

Yes, this is only spring training, but these were things that we just weren’t seeing from Rafaela last season. For the first time, it looks like he is taking pitches because he knows he can’t do anything with them rather then just taking pitches for the sake of taking them. Being more selective at the plate won’t just earn him more walks but allow him to get more hittable pitches once he gets in count leverage, which in turn will allow him to hit for more power.

Much of the focus will rightfully be on the middle of the order, but if Rafaela is able to provide even average production out of the number nine spot, this lineup will be a nightmare for opposing pitchers.

2. On the pitching side, the clear standout so far has been Richard Fitts.
When the Red Sox acquired Fitts from the Yankees, he pretty much only had a mid-90s fastball and a solid slider, but he has continued to develop his splitter as a third pitch while adding velocity to his fastball and break to his slider. The total package was enough to earn him a cup of coffee at the end of the 2024 season, where he posted solid surface-level results despite some concerning underlying numbers.

What we saw on Friday, however, was a completely different version of Fitts than anything we had seen before. His velocity on all his pitches was significantly up, including three miles per hour each on both his fastball and slider. His splitter, meanwhile, was up 2.7 miles per hour and had an average spin rate 116 RPMs higher than his 2024 average.

Throughout his career, Fitts has always been thought of as a potential back-end innings-eater due to his solid strike-throwing ability and his 6-foot-2, 230-pound frame. And while two spring training innings aren’t going to change that, a pitcher who can touch 99 with a plus slider and an improving splitter is someone to keep your eye on, especially when they can command each of those pitches. With Lucas Giolito and Brayan Bello’s opening day status still up in the air, Fitts is making a strong case to be the next man up in the Red Sox rotation.

3. It’s already really clear how having Alex Bregman in the two or three spot is going to change the lineup.
Unlike the other right-handed batters on this team, Bregman has very little swing-and-miss in his game and will not get beat with elite velocity. He homered in his very first at-bat in a Red Sox uniform, then nearly missed another one in the fourth inning when he turned on a high fastball and sent it off the very top of the fake Monster.

Whether he bats in between Jarren Duran and Rafael Devers or between Devers and Triston Casas, Bregman’s ability to break up the premier lefties in the order will be worth its weight in gold this season, as will his ability to ease the pressure of being the only right-handed threat in the lineup for Trevor Story.

4. It’s time to really start paying attention to David Hamilton.
He has already gotten the plurality of starts at second base, and he is looking the part. Not only is Hamilton playing solid defense to go along with elite speed, but he arrived at camp noticeably stronger, and it is showing in the way he is impacting the baseball. His home run last week left the bat at 108.2 miles per hour, just a tick below his high of 108.8 last season. Even with all the competition in the infield, Hamilton looks like a lock to make the roster, especially considering his ability to mix into the outfield as well.

5. Josh Winckowski has gotten hit hard this spring, and it continues to be the same story.
All his pitches come in between 85 and 96 miles per hour, and none generate whiffs. It’s disappointing that Winckowski hasn’t taken to the new pitching program better, and with so many other right-handed relievers in camp, it’s hard to see a pathway for him to get time at the MLB level this season.

6. Speaking of right-handed depth: Luis Guerrero continues to impress.
He hasn’t appeared in any game with Statcast tracking, but he has picked up right where he left off during his brief MLB stint last season, overwhelming hitters with his upper-90s fastball and wipeout slider and mixing in his changeup for good measure.  On top of the impressive three-pitch mix, Guerrero only walked two batters in ten innings last fall and has walked only one batter in his first three appearances this spring. And it’s not like Guerrero is dominating against minor leaguers: His six strikeout victims have included Austin Riley, Jarred Kelenic, Jose Caballero, Brandon Lowe, and Eloy Jimenez. The question is no longer whether Guerrero will make the team but rather how high-leverage his role will be.

7. Connor Wong's framing really does look different.
The Athletic’s Jen McCaffrey came out with a great article this week on the work Wong and new catching instructor Parker Guinn have done this offseason to improve his defense, especially working on his bottom-of-the-barrel framing. Statcast had Wong in the ninth percentile with -7 framing runs, and he debuted some significant changes on Saturday to improve that number. His stance is lower than it was in 2023, and his glove movement is much more simplified and direct. Guinn has a great track record with the Yankees, working with Austin Wells and Jose Trevino, and we’ll see if he can work similar magic with Wong.

8. It’s been nice to see Marcelo Mayer get off to a good start this spring after an injury-plagued 2024 season.
If you didn’t know any better, you would think he was already a major leaguer just by the way he carries himself and the smoothness of his game. He still needs to check off a few boxes at Triple A, such as facing left-handed pitchers and recognizing breaking ball balls, but he is back to looking like one of the best prospects in baseball.

9. Though not quite as smooth as Mayer, Roman Anthony has also looked the part of a big leaguer this spring.
Anthony has reached base in all six games he has played. Perhaps most impressively, Anthony has drawn four walks against just one strikeout, looking completely at ease with pitchers of both handedness. In fact, there are times when I would like to see him be even more aggressive, especially in situations where he has count leverage. Regardless, it’s clear the Red Sox have a special hitter on their hands, and the conversation is going to get really interesting if Wilyer Abreu is not ready for Opening Day.

10. Of the so-called Big Three prospects, there’s no doubt Kristian Campbell has gotten off to the slowest start.
He’s currently 0-for-11 with eight strikeouts, frequently getting beat by fastballs above the zone and sinkers inside. Just to be clear, my concern level with Campbell is zero, as many of these struggles can likely be attributed to early-spring timing issues and the pressure of trying to do too much to try and win an Opening Day job. Yet with some uncertainty surrounding his defensive readiness and the other quality options the Red Sox have, it would take an explosive spring training for Campbell to win the second base job, and it doesn’t look like we are going to get that. Not everybody is Jackson Chourio or Jackson Merrill, and with just 19 triple-A games under his belt, it could be worthwhile for Campbell to return to Worcester to tighten up the finer points of his game.

View full article

[mvp 78]

Of the 10, the only one I can take much out of right now is Richard Fitts. Him blowing gas seems really great. I just hope that the velo stays and that there are no adverse affects like we've seen with other pitchers who have started to max out and then miss 18 months. 

[jad]

Numbers don't lie:  Toro with a 5.000 OPS.  DFA Devers and Mayer

[mvp 78]

3 minutes ago, jad said:

Numbers don't lie:  Toro with a 5.000 OPS.  DFA Devers and Mayer

Mayer isn't on the 40 man. Don't need to dump him yet. 

DFA Bregman. Toro is a 2B/3B guy. Bregman is just in his way. 

[Larry Cook]

Last year, when fitts threw with velocity, his pitching was really good. 
but when the velocity dropped, he tended to get lit up!!!! 
right now, I would take fitts in the bullpen over winkowski 

[TheSplinteredSplendor]

48 minutes ago, Larry Cook said:

Last year, when fitts threw with velocity, his pitching was really good. 
but when the velocity dropped, he tended to get lit up!!!! 
 

Umm, pretty sure this can be said about many, many pitchers.

[moonslav59]

1 hour ago, TheSplinteredSplendor said:

Umm, pretty sure this can be said about many, many pitchers.

True nuff.

Let's hope his velo is here to stay!