Article: How Bregman’s Bat in Fits in Fenway

[Amrit Brown]

Alex Bregman has eye-popping stats at Fenway, numbers so impressive that his career-low .313 on-base percentage in 2024 shouldn't worry Red Sox fans.

Here at Talk Sox, we've spilled a lot of ink about Alex Bregman: why the Red Sox should sign him, why the Red Sox shouldn't sign him, why he picked Boston, how he fits in the lineup, how he can improve on his lackluster 2024, you get the picture. It's hard to argue with Bregman's 1.240 OPS in 98 plate appearances at Fenway Park. It's small sample size theater, but what theater! He's been the best hitter in baseball at Fenway. He will get three times that many plate appearances at home this season, and many more if he doesn't opt out in 2026 or 2027. What exactly makes Bregman's bat fit so well on the Red Sox and in Fenway Park? 

Bregman is now one of the two premiere right-handed bats in a lineup dominated by left-handed hitters. His pull-side power is something the Sox really haven’t experienced a ton of over the past couple of years. Bregman hit just one of his 26 home runs to right field last year.

His ability to launch baseballs in the air to left field will play up in Fenway. This weekend, the baseball he put over the left field wall at JetBlue Park, which is taller than the Green Monster, is a perfect example.

It’s not just the eye test and Bregman’s past success in Fenway that suggest the Monster will play into Bregman's game. He has spent his entire career banging home runs over and doubles off of the short porch provided by the Crawford Boxes in Houston. He has designed his swing and his entire offensive profile around the ability to pull balls in the air to take advantage of it. It's no coincidence that although Bregman chose to leave Houston, he chose to keep a short porch in left at his home park. His 18.2-degree launch angle ranked 39th in the big leagues last year. Of the 38 players ahead of Bregman, only four launched more hard-hit balls. These hard-hit balls, some of which were caught in the deeper dimensions at Daikin Park in Houston will bang off the Monster in Boston. 

Bregman also displays elite bat-to-ball skills. His 96th percentile squared-up rate and 98th percentile contact rate would have been the best on the Sox in 2024. MLB.com projects Alex Bregman to hit third for the Sox, and he wouldn't be out of place hitting anywhere from second to fifth. Third would represent an incredible situation for him: hitting in front of the Sox's premier power option in Triston Casas and providing protection for Rafael Devers. 

None of this makes Bregman an MVP candidate, though it may give him a chance at being the best second baseman in the AL if that's where he plays. Much has been made of the fact that the Sox are paying him the same amount of money as the Yankees will pay Aaron Judge in 2025 (although due to deferrals, the actual value is significantly less). The expectations for a player making that much are astronomical.

Bregman's fit in Boston is undoubtedly good. The Sox have the money to pay him and don’t hold the risk of a longer-term deal. Bregman makes contact and drives the ball hard in the air. His game is already tailored for the ballpark. He can play multiple positions, leaving the Sox some maneuverability as their top prospects threaten to break into the big club. Bregman's production dip in 2024 could signal the beginning of the end, or it could be a fluke and the numbers will rebound to the norm. Only time will tell how much the Sox can squeeze out of him, but in my book, the years on the deal make sense for the Sox.

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[mvp 78]

Per statcast, he has 210 career HR's and only 170 of those would have been a HR at Fenway. I'm not sure how much the Monster will help. If anything, he could get a bump in doubles. He came from HOU which is a better HR park for RHB than Fenway per park factors, but worse in all other measures. I'm not going to get too worked up over ST results even though Bregman is typically a very slow starter (April is his worst career month by OPS, had a 577 OPS in April in '24).