Article: The Red Sox Don’t Necessarily Have to Sign an Ace

[Davy Andrews]

There's more than one way to build a team, and Boston's starting pitching has been a bright spot. Reading the market this offseason is more important than a monomaniacal search for a number one starter.

We are going to spend a lot of time this offseason talking about what the Red Sox need. They’re a team on the rise, with an exciting young core at the big-league level and a promising prospect corps ready to burst onto the scene. Now is the time to make a bona fide push for contention, and it just so happens that the team has a ton of money coming off the books. RosterResource estimates that Boston’s current 2025 commitments add up to a luxury tax payroll of just under $139 million, down from $222.5 million this season, and well below the first threshold of $237 million. In other words, the team can and should go out there and spend some real money.

One thing that you’ve been reading both on this website and others is that the first priority should be securing a legit ace to lead the rotation. What would Boston’s season look like if they’d been the ones to reap the benefit of Chris Sale’s miraculous turnaround? Well, Sale’s having a six-win season and the Red Sox are currently three-and-a-half games out of the last Wild Card spot, so the math is pretty easy. If the Red Sox had gotten just four extra wins out of Sale, we wouldn’t be talking about the bright future; we’d be talking about the brilliant present.

However, I’d like to take a moment to challenge the notion that Boston must go out and land an ace. First, let’s remember just how good the team’s starters have been this season. As of Wednesday morning, they’re running a 3.76 ERA, sixth-best in baseball. Their 4.11 FIP ranks 18th, and I’d say their true talent is somewhere in the middle. According to FanGraphs, Boston’s starters have put up 11.7 WAR this season, more than five of the 12 teams currently in playoff position. That gives them at the very least an above-average rotation.

I’m not trying to tell you that the Red Sox have an elite rotation and that we should expect them to be another step forward in 2025 even without any reinforcements. First, they’ll need to replace Nick Pivetta regardless. Second, history tells us that we should probably expect them to take a small step backward, if for no other reason than that it would be foolish to expect all three of Tanner Houck, Brayan Bello, and Kutter Crawford to stay healthy and effective enough to make 30 starts for a second consecutive season. But it’s not as if the starters are holding the team back. Rotation depth is extremely important. It’s a long season, and people get hurt, which is why it really matters that of the 11 pitchers who started multiple games for the Red Sox this season, not a single one has an ERA above 4.50. Boston may not have a pitcher who can be relied upon to go out there and dominate, but it has a whole stable of pitchers who can keep the game close and give the offense a chance. On a team like that, a great bullpen can punch above its weight. When every game is close, you can steal wins by having a group of relievers who can be trusted to put up zero after zero.

I’d also like to remind you that while Tanner Houck may not be an ace, he’s not that far off either. Since his debut in 2020, Houck has ranked 34th among starters in ERA and 26th by FIP. Here’s a list of teams in the playoff hunt that don’t have a pitcher who can match Houck’s 3.9 fWAR this season: Astros, Brewers, Dodgers, Guardians, Mets, Orioles, Twins. And here’s a list of teams that aren’t in contention at all, but do have a pitcher who’s put up more WAR than Houck: Giants, Pirates, White Sox.

Furthermore, aces get hurt, or suddenly lose their effectiveness. Concentrating value in one player can help you win the big game, but that makes it hurt all the more when things go wrong. No one needs to be reminded of that fact less than the Red Sox, who rode Chris Sale to a playoff berth, then watched him disintegrate, and are now paying him $17 million to win a Cy Young Award for Atlanta. Having an ace is huge advantage, and that advantage grows in the playoffs, where you can throw your best pitchers more often and each game carries more weight. But it’s not the only way to succeed. We’ll write more in the coming months about the arms available in free agency, but I’d remind you that the two biggest names out there, Max Fried and Corbin Burnes, will be 31 and 30 next season and both have higher FIPs and fewer fWAR than Houck right now.

The Red Sox need help in several spots. Catcher, second base, at least one starter, and several bullpen pieces are all on the menu. They’ll also be able to trade from significant outfield and prospect depth. They could sign Willy Adames and move Trevor Story to second. If they decide that Rafael Devers’ defense at third base is no longer acceptable, then they could sign Alex Bregman and trade from newfound depth at DH and first base. They could sign Juan Soto and figure out the rest later. What I'm trying to say is that the Red Sox have the chance to add in just about any way they like. Their window of contention is opening right now, so they need to think about winning both in 2025 and beyond. Landing an ace would be huge, but focusing solely on doing so might not make the most sense given the current landscape. Without many top-end starters on the market, the team needs to keep their eye on what will give them the chance to win. It doesn’t have to be an ace.

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[moonslav59]

I simple cannot possibly disagree anymore. In fact, I think we need 2 solid SP'ers- an ace and a #3 type.

1. Ace added

2. Houck

3. #3 added

4. & 5. Bello, Crawford & Gio (We can be 99% sure, someone will be on the IL, so we need these three for 2 slots.)

AAA Depth (or long relief) Criswell, Fitts, Priester, Dobbins

Don't be surprised if Gio starts the season on the IL.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

There are also intangibles added by an established top-of-the-rotation starter, especially one with experience pitching as/for a winner: setting examples of how he comports himself in the clubhouse, in the weight room, in the bullpen, in the dugout, and particularly on the field, interacting with teammates, coaches, opponents and umpires, even reporters and fans. His game-planning, preparation and trade secrets can help coaches, fellow starters, relievers, hitters and fielders, while his positives can help revive a winning culture and even influence other outside talent to consider a transfer to Boston.

But the main benefit having a guy who takes the ball and regularly supplies quality innings is the preservation of relief arms, which helps prevent bullpen burn-out -- and the annual collapse in Boston every August and September.

[Duran Is The Man]

1 hour ago, moonslav59 said:

I simple cannot possibly disagree anymore. In fact, I think we need 2 solid SP'ers- an ace and a #3 type.

1. Ace added

2. Houck

3. #3 added

4. & 5. Bello, Crawford & Gio (We can be 99% sure, someone will be on the IL, so we need these three for 2 slots.)

AAA Depth (or long relief) Criswell, Fitts, Priester, Dobbins

Don't be surprised if Gio starts the season on the IL.

don't worry, Bresslow will sign Dom Smith to pitch out of the bullpen. his major minimum salary will fit right in with Henry's budget.