Bill James blasts current day baseball statisticians

[Old Red]

Every time you type that, I picture you as the cranky, grizzled, flannel-wearing greybeard forcibly squeezing monosyllabic grunts to express your frustration with those gosh darn changes in the world. It’s very Neanderthal.

 

It brings a smile to my face every time

 

You should have really put down that hammer years ago.

[Maxbialystock]

I too am chagrinned at the intrusion of software programs that have or can reshape the game. The Rays claim their system relies on extensive computer analysis and that, for example, they were the first MLB team to use bold shifts for every hitter they faced.

 

On the other hand, I like the mention of Ted Williams, who was born too soon to benefit from computer analysis but who was definitely smart (he was a pilot instructor in WW II and later a successful MLB manager) and a real student of hitting. Consequently, I think he's the one who coined "hitting a round ball with a round bat squarely," which is the essence of hitting and difficult to achieve.

 

He also endured what was called the "Williams shift," which I think Lou Boudreau dreamt up because Williams was a great pull hitter. Last year MLB banned those bold shifts, but Williams simply ignored them because to him the first principle of hitting was to hit that round ball with a round bat squarely. In 1957 at age 38 he hit .388 with 38 dingers even though Fenway Park in fact favors hitting to left field and the Green Monster.

 

In the movie Moneyball Billy Beane preaches not bunting--a waste of an out--and getting walks. Williams did both: avoided bunts and embraced walks.

 

Here's a question for all you Sox stats experts. The Sox won the WS four times under John Henry, and in all four seasons led MLB in one batting stat. I think the answer to that explains why Williams was right that the key to hitting success is, very simply, hitting that round ball squarely. This year the Sox are ranked 6th in that stat. In 2021, the last time the Sox made a good run in the postseason, they were ranked first.

[notin]

Actually the “Williams Shift” predates Ted Williams’ career. It was first employed against Cubs/Phillies left-handed slugger Frederick “Cy” Williams, whose career went from 1912-1930…

[Maxbialystock]

Actually the “Williams Shift” predates Ted Williams’ career. It was first employed against Cubs/Phillies left-handed slugger Frederick “Cy” Williams, whose career went from 1912-1930…

 

No doubt true, but irrelevant to the point that players succeed when they hit the ball squarely. That should be their focus and not the angle at which they hit it or the direction in which they hit it.

 

Sox hitting succeeds when they lead in doubles, not dingers, which I believe is also tied to banging the ball off the green monster. Not enough good righty bats, which is probably also why the Sox have a losing record at the Fens.

[sk7326]

https://nypost.com/2024/07/02/sports/bill-james-godfather-of-sabermetrics-blasts-computer-guys/#:~:text=However%2C%20the%2074%2Dyear%2D,in%20a%20thread%20on%20X.

 

I agree Bill. But you started this mess and you even engaged in minutia first.

 

Bill in a lot of areas has become an enormous crank.

[sk7326]

Bill's comments regarding advanced stats have nothing specifically to do with the Red Sox.

 

His comments are about how far flung and contrary to the good of the game all this statistical nonsense has become. Players have been ground down to a nominal standard that discounts aspect of the game that are actually at the heart of the popularity of the game.....AND.....MLB's insistence on trying to use them to expand the game's popularity have been a giant FAIL. If you like spread sheets and minutia you are happy. If you like the game itself.....not so much. But we can use the Red Sox as an exhibit for the issues.

 

As for this constant insistence on lifting the ball, Duran has 10 HR's, Rafiela has 9, Wong has 7. We have two legitimate HR threats on the current roster and not on the IL. Those would be Rafi and O'Neal. The rest are still swinging for the fences with occasional success. Yoshida has warning track power but he is still swinging like its going over the fence. Duran is less effects than Rafaela who is a JOKE in this regard.

 

Oh and the way the stat masters have screwed up pitching is even worse. Our Sox staff is running out of gas at the start of July.....not that they can go deeper than 5-6 innings. They can go 5-6 innings to the end of June. Cora trying to find ways to extend rest between starts.

 

The Red Sox have been an above average offense with a top 10 OBP and are one of the best baserunning teams in the whole league.

 

A lot of what has been quantified is stuff people have been trying to do ever since baseball began - hit more homeruns, make better contact, make curvier curve balls, generate velocity. I am not sure how attempts to measure that have made life bad.

 

Pitching is where the problems are with baseball - and really THAT comes down to just sheer effort. What is also clear is that the notion that teams should limit innings to guys on the way up - is just not working for preventing injuries.

[mvp 78]

I'm not really clear what these "large-scale issues" Bill is referring to are supposed to be.

 

"People aren't paying attention to me anymore."

[mvp 78]

Bill in a lot of areas has become an enormous crank.

 

I can't believe Carmine died for this idiot.

[Dipre]

I didn’t know metrics could hit a baseball. Interesting. Very interesting.

 

Why do you have to be such a f***ing prick? If you're not going to add anything to the discussion, why post at all? He's making valid points, if you don't agree, state why you don't agree.

[Dipre]

And one more thing, "speed kills" is a baseball fact, but it's absolutely impossible to prove that "distracting the pitcher" correlates better with scoring runs than slugging, in all of its aspects, because it's not true. However, the binding between both methods of production is OBP, which is absolutely, demonstrably and unequivocally the most important component of offensive production.

[Brock Beauchamp]

It's super weird to me that James is railing on modern analytics. Like, what did you expect to happen? I don't blame modern analytics for the state of baseball; the game is constantly changing and MLB needs to adjust their rules to compensate for those changes. 2022 was a good start but I feel there's more work to be done to get pitchers to return to length, reduce max effort all the time, etc. But I personally have absolutely no idea how to effectively change those things.