4/30 SF Giants vs Red Hots @ Fenway 7:10 EDT

[vegasbob]

Cooper Criswell making his 3rd start for the Red Sox in '24 .Coop is an Angels/Rays alum with a SSS for a career with just under 50 total innings in MLB. Basically a mid-level reliever now starting for Boston.

 

Logan Webb, RH'er making his 7th appearance is doing well (3-1) for the 14-15 Giants . Webb has thrown 38+ innings in his prior 6 starts, so he will get some innings eaten typically. 2.33 ERA and a decent 1.11 WHIP .

 

Red Sox will close out Mar/April '24 with a winning record heading into May. May features 28 games, with 10 in the AL East, Rays for 7, and the dreaded O's for 3.

 

For anyone looking for a Yaz sighting, Mike Yastrzemski will be there. Started slow this season but much warmer over his past 7 games going 8 for 18, with 2 HRs and a 1.252 OPS, , but .780 over his last 15 games ( 41 AB's)

Edited April 30, 2024 by vegasbob

[mvp 78]

Criswell: 2.38 ERA, 4.57 xFIP

 

He's not walking anyone and is keeping that WHIP low. If they can get him in and out without getting into trouble, they may stand a chance. He's definitely outclassed by Webb. SF offense is ok, but they aren't going to make any mistakes on defense, unlike the Sox.

[moonslav59]

Criswell: 2.38 ERA, 4.57 xFIP

 

He's not walking anyone and is keeping that WHIP low. If they can get him in and out without getting into trouble, they may stand a chance. He's definitely outclassed by Webb. SF offense is ok, but they aren't going to make any mistakes on defense, unlike the Sox.

 

The .270 BAbip is much lower than his career .329 BAbip, but it's hard to know, if this has all been luck. (I think some has been, if not most.)

 

His .625 OPS Against looks real good.

 

Other numbers:

 

LD%: (a pretty big improvement)

27% in '23

18% in '24

 

Hard Hit %:

28.4% in '13

26.3% in '24

 

Here is a big swing- soft hit%

16.5% in '23

28.9% in '24

 

Is the BAbip and FIP numbers really telling the whole story on the "luck factor?"

[notin]

The .270 BAbip is much lower than his career .329 BAbip, but it's hard to know, if this has all been luck. (I think some has been, if not most.)

 

His .625 OPS Against looks real good.

 

Other numbers:

 

LD%: (a pretty big improvement)

27% in '23

18% in '24

 

Hard Hit %:

28.4% in '13

26.3% in '24

 

Here is a big swing- soft hit%

16.5% in '23

28.9% in '24

 

Is the BAbip and FIP numbers really telling the whole story on the "luck factor?"

 

He also only has 11 IP. With that few IP, statistical anomalies are really not yet anomalous…

[mvp 78]

The .270 BAbip is much lower than his career .329 BAbip, but it's hard to know, if this has all been luck. (I think some has been, if not most.)

 

His .625 OPS Against looks real good.

 

Other numbers:

 

LD%: (a pretty big improvement)

27% in '23

18% in '24

 

Hard Hit %:

28.4% in '13

26.3% in '24

 

Here is a big swing- soft hit%

16.5% in '23

28.9% in '24

 

Is the BAbip and FIP numbers really telling the whole story on the "luck factor?"

 

It's only been 11 innings. You can chalk up a lot of his success to SSS.

[mvp 78]

He also only has 11 IP. With that few IP, statistical anomalies are really not yet anomalous…

 

Yup.

[moonslav59]

It's only been 11 innings. You can chalk up a lot of his success to SSS.

 

Of course not, but the FIP you brought up is also a SSS.

[mvp 78]

Of course not, but the FIP you brought up is also a SSS.

 

It's also more in line with his career numbers than his current ERA.

[moonslav59]

It's also more in line with his career numbers than his current ERA.

 

You mean the 37 IP career sample size before 2024?

 

His whole MLB career is a SSS.

 

His ERA is way better than pre-2024, his FIP is slightly better and his line drive and hard hit rates are significantly lower, all in SSSs.

 

I'm not sure why the FIP numbers have more meaning.

[Maxbialystock]

I see this game a little differently.

 

The Giants just finished a 10 game homestand, which means they are playing their first game on the east coast against the Sox. Going west to east is always tougher than going east to west.

 

The Giants defense may be better--17 errors vs 24 errors--than the Sox, but their team ERA, 4.43, is ranked 25th in MLB to the Sox 1st. And they've scored 116 runs, ranked 21st in MLB, to the Sox 139, ranked 12th.

 

On the other hand, I completely agree with anyone who says a starting pitcher can make a huge difference, and Webb has thrown 8, 7, 7, and 7 innings in his last 4 starts, giving up a total of 3 runs. He is not a K guy, but is apparently terrific at getting outs. His ERA of 2.33 is his best ever, and tonight he is going on 7 days rest.

[mvp 78]

You mean the 37 IP career sample size before 2024?

 

His whole MLB career is a SSS.

 

His ERA is way better than pre-2024, his FIP is slightly better and his line drive and hard hit rates are significantly lower, all in SSSs.

 

I'm not sure why the FIP numbers have more meaning.

 

Criswell:

'23 AAA 84 Inn, 4.33 xFIP

'23 MLB 33 Inn, 4.54 xFIP

'24 AAA 10 Inn, 4.75 xFIP

'24 MLB 11 Inn, 4.57 xFIP

 

Seems that the xFIP has been pretty consistent as of late regardless of your concerns over SSS's impact on his current xFIP. I guess he's just a 2.50 ERA guy now? He has never had an ERA under 3.70 outside of the Complex League FFS.

[moonslav59]

Criswell:

'23 AAA 84 Inn, 4.33 xFIP

'23 MLB 33 Inn, 4.54 xFIP

'24 AAA 10 Inn, 4.75 xFIP

'24 MLB 11 Inn, 4.57 xFIP

 

Seems that the xFIP has been pretty consistent as of late regardless of your concerns over SSS's impact on his current xFIP. I guess he's just a 2.50 ERA guy now? He has never had an ERA under 3.70 outside of the Complex League FFS.

 

LOL. You brought up the SSS point, first.

 

BTW, I did say, "it's hard to know, if this has all been luck. (I think some has been, if not most.)"

 

I know it's a small sample size for 2024, but my point was it may not be all about luck, since batters are not hitting the ball as hard as they did prior to this year. Do you think that matters, or not? SSS or not.

[mvp 78]

LOL. You brought up the SSS point, first.

 

BTW, I did say, "it's hard to know, if this has all been luck. (I think some has been, if not most.)"

 

I know it's a small sample size for 2024, but my point was it may not be all about luck, since batters are not hitting the ball as hard as they did prior to this year. Do you think that matters, or not? SSS or not.

 

If you actually look at Statcast, he was in a higher percentile last year for hard hit and barrel %. Hit ball have been harder this year against Cooper.

 

Average exit velo '23: 87.1

Average exit velo '24: 88.4

 

The main improvements are chase % and bb %.

[moonslav59]

If you actually look at Statcast, he was in a higher percentile last year for hard hit and barrel %. Hit ball have been harder this year against Cooper.

 

Average exit velo '23: 87.1

Average exit velo '24: 88.4

 

The main improvements are chase % and bb %.

 

I was going by fangraphs hard hit% and Line Drive %, which both are better in 2024.

[mvp 78]

@BOSSportsGordo

Garrett Cooper is starting for the Red Sox tonight.

 

Vaughn Grissom is not, because he has the flu. No word yet as to when he could see the field.

[mvp 78]

Duran CF,

Devers 3B,

O’Neill DH,

Abreu RF,

Refsnyder LF,

Valdez 2B,

Cooper 1B,

McGuire C,

Rafaela SS

[moonslav59]

Duran CF,

Devers 3B,

O’Neill DH,

Abreu RF,

Refsnyder LF,

Valdez 2B,

Cooper 1B,

McGuire C,

Rafaela SS

 

Ref starting vs a RHPs is interesting. Batting 5th is surprising, but when you look at 6 through 9, maybe not so much.

[notin]

@BOSSportsGordo

Garrett Cooper is starting for the Red Sox tonight.

 

Vaughn Grissom is not, because he has the flu. No word yet as to when he could see the field.

 

Clearly this means God has Enmanuel Valdez on his fantasy team...

[dgalehouse]

Well, at least we finally get to see Grissom........ Wait a minute. Oh, no. Grissom called in sick. Darn.

[vegasbob]

@BOSSportsGordo

Garrett Cooper is starting for the Red Sox tonight.

 

Vaughn Grissom is not, because he has the flu. No word yet as to when he could see the field.

 

The mysterious Mr. Grissom. I told you he doesn't exist and if he , by chance, does, he is not a warrior. This guy makes me sick

[wyo-sox]

Hmmm... it appears my feed for the game is about 5 minutes behind actual game time. Makes it a bit of a pain- trying hard not to look at the outcomes of AB's before I actually see them on TV.

[vegasbob]

Hmmm... it appears my feed for the game is about 5 minutes behind actual game time. Makes it a bit of a pain- trying hard not to look at the outcomes of AB's before I actually see them on TV.

 

Same issue on the lag time. I was hoping Devers still had time to get a hot but he oddly DP'ed

[wyo-sox]

Tyler Oniell is a good player of baseball.

[vegasbob]

Cooper reminds me of Dalbec for some reason. May have been the beneficiary of a tough call on K-3

[mvp 78]

Ump sucks

[wyo-sox]

Duran warming up nicely last few games after flirting with a slump.

[mvp 78]

TC talks through Criswell k’ing the side. Classic NESN.

[vegasbob]

Whoa, is that Cy Criswell out there or just dreaming?

[vegasbob]

Ump sucks

 

He is definitely calling the low pitch a strike

[vegasbob]

TC talks through Criswell k’ing the side. Classic NESN.

 

TC always sounds like he is at the bottom of a 50' silo . That was a great inning by Criswell and didn't need explanation by O'B