2022 Prospects

[mvp 78]

So, pereles 11th or 12th and Jordan 18th?

 

I think one of the SP guys has him top 10?

[moonslav59]

I think one of the SP guys has him top 10?

 

Who drops out of the top 10?

 

Paulino?

 

Walter?

 

Yorke?

[moonslav59]

Minor League wRC+ Leaders (500+ PAs)

 

1. Kavadas 170

T28. Rafaela 134

35. E Valdez 131

T43. Paulino 128

T55. Abreu 124

T55. Jordan 124

T58. Lugo 122

T131. Hamilton 104

T158. Binelas 100

 

400+ PAs (not on 500+ list)

T27. Mayer 144

T112. Bonaci 125

T167. Stewart 119

 

300+ PAs

Hickey 155

Casas 134

Sikes 133

Wong 121

Duran 120

Granberg 119

 

200+

Mieses 144

Ascencio 143

Sierra 136

 

[moonslav59]

Sox in the Minors x FIP

 

2.56 Walter

2.56 Bello

3.33 Kelly

3.40 Mosqueda

3.42 E Polanco

3.45 T Ward

3.50 J Webb

3.57 Pannone

3.64 Mata

3.76 Politi

3.76 Winckowski

notables...

3.84 Ort

3.86 Uberstine

3.93 German

3.99 Drohan

4.01 Luis de la Rosa

[mvp 78]

Who drops out of the top 10?

 

Paulino?

 

Walter?

 

Yorke?

 

I think Paulino would just drop down to 11 through no fault of his own.

[moonslav59]

I think Paulino would just drop down to 11 through no fault of his own.

 

A sign that our system is improving and deepening.

[moonslav59]

Another look at the ETAs for our top prospects:

 

Graduated:

2020: none

2021: Dalbec, Houck & Whitlock

2022: Duran, Crawford, Winckowski, Bello (Oct 2022)

 

2023

2. Casas

4. Rafaela (late)

6. Mata (mid)

8. Walter (late)

11. Wong

12. Murphy (mid)

14. Valdez (mid)

23. Seabold

24. Downs

27. German

29. Kelly

 

2024

1. Mayer

17. Lugo

18. TWard

22. Kavadas

26. Abreu

28. Drohan

 

2025

3. Bleis

9. Paulino

13. Wikelman

16. Jordan

19. Bonaci

20. Hickey

 

2026>

7. Romero

10. Anthony

21. Coffey

25. Rodriguez-Cruz

30. B Brannon

[moonslav59]

Bello was graduated by soxprospects.com. I don't think thise is their year ending rankings, but it may be a hint at what if will be:

 

(End of 2021 rankings)

1. Mayer (2)

2. Casas (1)

3. Bleis (15)

4. Rafaela (NR)

5. Yorke (3)

6. Mata (10)

7. Romero (N/A)

8. Walter (17)

9. Paulino (NR)

10. Anthony (N/A)

11. Wong (16)

12. Murphy (14)

13. Wikelman (12)

14. Valdez (N/A)

15. Perales (NR)

16. Jordan (7)

17. Lugo (NR)

18. TWard (19)

19. Bonaci (NR)

20. Hickey (N/A)

21. Coffey (N/A)

22. Kavadas (N/A)

23. Seabold (11)

24. Downs (5)

25. Rodriguez-Cruz (N/A)

26. Abreu (N/A)

27. German (NR)

28. Drohan (NR)

29. Kelly (N/A)

30. B Brannon (N/A)

 

N/A= not in top 20

 

 

[moonslav59]

Minor League FAs and Rule 5

 

Maybe Five?

 

MiFA

Minor League FA

Enmanuel Valdez

Johan Mieses

Christian Stewart

 

Rule 5

Ceddanne Rafaela

Brandon Walter

Thaddeus Ward

Wilyer Abreu

 

Good enough but too far away or on the Bubble?

Eddinson Paulino

Wikelman Gonzalez

Chris Murphy

David Hamilton

Victor Santos

Christian Koss

Devlin Granberg

Angel Bastardo

Kole Cottam

Jake Thompson

Gilbert Jimenez

Jacob Wallace

Luis de la Rosa

 

[Larry Cook]

The guy at fansided daily came out with his top 30 sox prospects. There was really bizarre stuff in it but he got the top 2 correct.

[moonslav59]

The guy at fansided daily came out with his top 30 sox prospects. There was really bizarre stuff in it but he got the top 2 correct.

 

Care to elaborate?

[mvp 78]

Care to elaborate?

In reverse order:

 

Hamilton (44 SoxProspects ranking)

Jimenez (39)

Drohan (28)

Meidroth (46)

Ravelo (53)

Abreu (26)

Mejicano (UR)

Encarnacion (51)

Cottam (UR)

Ward (18)

Koss (38)

Kavadas (22)

Valdez (14)

Anthony (10)

Rodriguez Cruz (25)

Hickey (20)

Gonzalez (13)

Perales (15)

Lugo (17)

Walter (8)

Jordan (16)

Murphy (12)

Bonaci (19)

Romero (7)

Yorke (5)

Paulino (9)

Bleis (3)

Mata (6)

Mayer (1)

Rafaela (4)

 

Why didn't he include Brooks Brannon? He ends up including a lot of lesser named guys because he excludes anyone on the BOS roster or who has ever been called up. Seems like he did a lot of box score scouting more than anything. Really likes catchers?

 

Here's SoxProspects scouting report on Mejicano, a guy I don't remember hearing about before:

 

Stocky catcher’s frame. Athletic for a catcher. Starts square with a wide base and utilizes a leg lift timing device. Aggressive approach; will expand the zone. Bat drags through the zone and struggles with velocity. Hit well in limited duty in the FCL in 2021. Has been about average in throwing out attempted base stealers. Began 2022 as a backup in Salem but saw more time in the second half of the season after the promotion of Nathan Hickey. Potential minor league depth catcher.

[moonslav59]

In reverse order:

 

Hamilton (44 SoxProspects ranking)

Jimenez (39)

Drohan (28)

Meidroth (46)

Ravelo (53)

Abreu (26)

Mejicano (UR)

Encarnacion (51)

Cottam (UR)

Ward (18)

Koss (38)

Kavadas (22)

Valdez (14)

Anthony (10)

Rodriguez Cruz (25)

Hickey (20)

Gonzalez (13)

Perales (15)

Lugo (17)

Walter (8)

Jordan (16)

Murphy (12)

Bonaci (19)

Romero (7)

Yorke (5)

Paulino (9)

Bleis (3)

Mata (6)

Mayer (1)

Rafaela (4)

 

Why didn't he include Brooks Brannon? He ends up including a lot of lesser named guys because he excludes anyone on the BOS roster or who has ever been called up. Seems like he did a lot of box score scouting more than anything. Really likes catchers?

 

Here's SoxProspects scouting report on Mejicano, a guy I don't remember hearing about before:

 

Stocky catcher’s frame. Athletic for a catcher. Starts square with a wide base and utilizes a leg lift timing device. Aggressive approach; will expand the zone. Bat drags through the zone and struggles with velocity. Hit well in limited duty in the FCL in 2021. Has been about average in throwing out attempted base stealers. Began 2022 as a backup in Salem but saw more time in the second half of the season after the promotion of Nathan Hickey. Potential minor league depth catcher.

 

Thanks.

 

It's an interesting list. I'd have Walter higher, and I think maybe this guy was wow'd by Bonaci's equal BBs and Ks.

 

Murphy has really sucked for about a month.

[moonslav59]

Devers was called up in July of 2017. He was one of the few Sox prospects to be "fast-tracked," since he debuted as a 20 year old. However, he was signed as an IFA in July of 2013 and began in the rookie league in July 2014, as a 17 year old. So, it still took him 4 years from signing to the bigs and 3 years from Rookie Leagues to MLB.

 

Bloom has been the GM for 3 years, and has been criticized for not having any prospects called up, yet, and us "not seeing the results," more quickly. On top of this, all farm systems shut down in his first year as GM.

 

When you factor is the 2-4 years it takes to build up a farm and the 3-6 years it takes to develop promising new farm additions, the lag time is often 5-8 years before solid and continuous results can be expected, and this usually occurs only when a constant vigilance has been directed towards building up and maintaining a strong farm system from top to bottom, with very few major prospects trades, along the way.

 

The farm infusions we have seen since Devers have been pretty few and far between, and if you go back 5-8 years and add all the prospect trades made 5-6 years ago, one can better understand why the pipeline has been sputtering since Devers.

 

Soxprospects.com lists these graduated prospects since Devers:

8/18 Brasier

8/19 Taylor

9/19 DHern

5/21 Dalbec

6/21 Whitlock (a Bloom Rule 5 addition)

9/21 Houck

7/22 Duran

8/22 Crawford

9/22 Winckowski

10/22 Bello

 

The following prospects may graduate in 2023:

2. Casas

4. Rafaela (late '23)

6. Mata (late '23)

8. Walter (late '23)

11. Wong

12. Murphy (late '23)

14. EValdez (late '23)

23. Seabold

24. Downs

27. German

29. Kelly

 

As you can see, we should start seeing more prospects called up, next year. The quality is still speculative, but the higher numbers are real and encouraging.

 

Bloom added some prospects via trades and Rule 5 that may jump the timeline ahead, a bit, as they were drafted several years ago and some are or were near MLB ready when acquired. Not many of those are/were our top prospects, but it should help having so many in hopes that a few contribute. So far, Whitlock has been nice, but Wink, Cordero, Seabold, Kelly, German, Downs and Wong have had mixed or poor results, so far.

 

Look at the list of graduating prospects from 2018-2022 (5 years!) and think about how hard it is for a GM to rebuild a team with such little farm help.

Edited October 4, 2022 by moonslav59

[moonslav59]

Sox Pitching Farm Leaders (50+ IP)

 

xFIP

2.56 Walter (1st in WHIP at 0.90)

2.56 Bello (5th in WHIP at 0.98)

3.33 Kelly

3.40 Mosqueda

3.42 E Polanco (3rd WHIP at 0.95)

3.45 TWard

3.50 J Webb

3.57 Pannone

3.64 B Mata

3.72 A Politi (4th in WHIP at 0.97)

3.76 Winckowski & H Dobbins

3.80 J Stock & B Van Belle

3.84 K Ort & J Paez

3.86 Uberstine

3.89 German (2nd in WHIP 0.91)

3.93 Shugart

3.99 Drohan

4.01 Luis de la Rosa

 

K%

35 J Webb

34 Kelly & Bello

33 German

32 Walter & Ort

31 Mosqueda & Ward

30 Mata & Politi

29 Stock & Drohan

28 Wikelman & de la Rosa

 

HR/9

0.0 Polanco (0/51 IP)

0.0 L Cohen (0/47)

0.18 Wikelman (1/98)

0.19 Thompson

0.22 Ort

0.36 Kelly & German

0.37 de la Rosa

notables:

0.53 Ward

0.54 Mata

0.56 Bello

0.59 Wink

 

GB/FB

3.38 Bello

2.70 Thompson

2.06 Mata

2.00 Walter

 

LD%

12.6 Ward

15.3 Thompson

16.2 German

17.6 Walter

 

GB%

62.0 Bello

61.9 Thompson

54.9 Walter

52.9 Ward

52.6 Mata

 

[moonslav59]

Just Baseball's End of Year Rankings:

18. Casas

21. Mayer

81. Rafaela

 

3 NYY: 12, 35, 59

 

5 TBR: 25, 34, 75, 77, 83

 

2 TOR: 5, 13

 

6 BAL: 2, 3, 23, 29, 67, 89

 

Bleacher Report updated Sep 9th:

13. Mayer

35. Casas

43. Bello

98. Rafaela

Edited October 6, 2022 by moonslav59

[Larry Cook]

Yorke is currently playing in the arizona fall league and hitting .300 after three games.

 

He had a really tough year with the multiple wrist injuries.

 

I am hopeful that he comes back next year and blows the doors off Greenville and gets to Portland by the end of may.

[moonslav59]

Yorke is currently playing in the arizona fall league and hitting .300 after three games.

 

He had a really tough year with the multiple wrist injuries.

 

I am hopeful that he comes back next year and blows the doors off Greenville and gets to Portland by the end of may.

 

We have a lot to be hopeful over, next year on the farm.

[notin]

Yorke is currently playing in the arizona fall league and hitting .300 after three games.

 

He had a really tough year with the multiple wrist injuries.

 

I am hopeful that he comes back next year and blows the doors off Greenville and gets to Portland by the end of may.

 

He’s only 20 or so and would normally be a sophomore in college, but a lot of people gave up on him kinda fast…

[moonslav59]

He’s only 20 or so and would normally be a sophomore in college, but a lot of people gave up on him kinda fast…

 

The injuries could easily be the reason for the O dip.

 

I'm really excited about Bleis & Perales.

 

I'm hopeful we see Mata & Walter in 2023.

[mvp 78]

Yorke is currently playing in the arizona fall league and hitting .300 after three games.

 

He had a really tough year with the multiple wrist injuries.

 

I am hopeful that he comes back next year and blows the doors off Greenville and gets to Portland by the end of may.

 

I think he's a guy who may struggle with injuries on and off throughout his career. He did miss significant time during high school during injury. I don't think this season sinks his professional career or anything, but I believe it could indicate some troubled waters in the future. I hope his bat turns around and he can give the Sox good, cheap production for a few years.

[mvp 78]

He’s only 20 or so and would normally be a sophomore in college, but a lot of people gave up on him kinda fast…

 

The one bright spot to me is that early on people were saying he was going to be moved off of 2b. Now, the same people believe he can stick at 2b long term.

[moonslav59]

Here is what soxprospects.com has to say about the prospects expected to play for the big club, at some point in 2023:

 

https://www.soxprospects.com/index.html

 

Tristan Casas Potential everyday regular. Ceiling of an all-star capable of hitting for both average and significant power. Looks the part of a prototypical bat-first first baseman capable of anchoring a lineup. Projects to add some value defensively at first base as well. Hit tool still needs development. Will have to ensure the swing-and-miss in his game does not impact his ability to tap into his power. Strong instincts and feel for the game. Great work ethic and strong clubhouse presence. Student of the game, really looks to hone his craft.

 

Bryan Bello (recently graduated) Potential mid-rotation starter. Ceiling of a number two starter or high-end number three. At his best, will flash three at least above-average p itches, and on the right day, all will look like potential plus pitches. Has done a great job improving his delivery and command to the point where you can comfortably project him as a starter. Has done a much better job repeating delivery and holding velocity deeper into starts in looks in 2022. Attacks hitters with a plan and has multiple pitches he is confident using against hitters. Against right-handed hitters, throws a lot of two-seamers and sliders, while against lefties he tends to go more with four-seam fastballs up and changeups down. Has pitches that break in all four directions and can be used in any quadrant. Has had allowed more hard contact to lefties than righties and that is something worth watching as he reaches the major league level. In the past, he would show the stuff of a starter, but combination of thin stature and delivery indicated a potential future in the bullpen. Not imposing physically, but still has projection and has the type of athleticism you look for. Has continued to improve year after year, and now is the top pitching prospect in the system and one of the top ten or so right-handed pitching prospects in baseball.

 

Ceddanne Rafaela Potential bench utility player. Ceiling of an everyday regular who adds considerable value on defense and also contributes some at the plate. Defensive ability and versatility and speed give him a high floor. Could be a plus defender at every position except catcher and first base. Bat lags behind, but has improved considerably in 2022. Approach is what holds him back now and will determine his ultimate value at the plate.

 

Bryan Mata Projects as a back end starter or multi-inning relief arm with premium stuff to handle a late inning role if necessary. Ceiling of a mid-rotation starter. Still has a wide range of outcomes as he makes his return from Tommy John surgery. Raw stuff is back, but feel for secondaries and command come and go within outings. Might be able to start, but could be more effective in shorter bursts out of the bullpen. Delivery still has effort and we need to see how his stuff holds up over longer, 5-6-inning stints and when pitching on a consistent starter’s schedule. Will show the potential for a true four-pitch mix with two potential plus offerings. Has shown the ability to miss bats with all four pitches at various points in his career. Harnessing command of his arsenal will be key for his development. Injury risk had become a concern even pre-Tommy John surgery, as he last made it through a full season healthy in 2017. Tommy John Surgery in April 2021 clouds future starter profile.

 

Brandon Walter Potential back-end starter. Ceiling of a mid-rotation starter. Will show a starter's arsenal with three average-or-better pitches and the ability to turn over a lineup, but does not have a typical starter's delivery. Control is already above-average-to-plus and command should get to at least average. You can debate whether he fits better as a starter or reliever depending on the day you see him. Has some traits that would push him to each potential outcome, but has the makings of a major league-caliber arm either way. If pushed to the bullpen, combination of stuff and handedness gives him a decent floor.

 

Connor Wong Potential MLB backup or up-and-down catcher. Ceiling of a platoon catcher who will have a season or two of starter-level production. Has already earned the trust of the organization as the third catcher on the 40-man roster, but has yet to get much run in the majors. Will have to make more contact. Power tool is better than hit right now, and he needs refinement at the plate. Has improved defense to the point that he should be able to handle that side of things in some role.

 

Chris Murphy Potential multi-inning relief arm and spot starter. Ceiling of a back-end starter. Lacks a standout pitch, but has three average-to-better pitches and a fourth that can be effective when used on occasion. Needs to improve consistency with secondary pitches and command to allow him to work deeper into games and develop into a consistent starter. Chances of starting are better now than in the past now that he has shown he can consistently get right-handed hitters out, something he really struggled with coming into this year. Ability to miss bats has come and gone this year and will need to show more consistency there if he is to stick as a starter.

 

Enmanuel Valdez Potential bat-first bench player. Ceiling of a bat-first utility player. Has moved around the diamond, but that is driven by him being below-average defensively and trying to find where he will best fit rather than true versatility. Will have to hit to hold value given defensive limitations. Has taken major strides at the plate in 2022; now has a chance to develop into at least a platoon bench bat and potentially more.

 

Connor Seabold Potential swingman. Ceiling of a fifth starter. Has a four-pitch mix, but only his changeup projects better than average. Strong pitchability and advanced command and control profile allow his arsenal to play up. At his best, can generate whiffs with three pitches, but does not show consistency with his arsenal from outing to outing. Not the highest ceiling, but command/control and feel/pitchability, combined with proximity to MLB, give him a fairly high floor. Stuff is unlikely to be good enough to start for a contending team. Profiles better in a long relief and depth starter role, but could start for a second division club.

 

Jeter Downs Potential emergency utility infielder. Ceiling of fringe-utility infielder who struggles to hold down a consistent role and jumps from team to team. Future potential is largely tied to development of his hit tool. Has really struggled to make contact in the high minors, especially on velocity. May have been promoted to Triple-A a bit too aggressively after the lost 2020 season given his limited exposure to Double-A. If he can develop even a below-average hit tool, has the chance to carve out a major league role, but even that is a question after prolonged struggles in Triple-A. Other tools are all about average, and he lacks another carrying tool if his hit tool does not develop.

 

Frank German Potential middle reliever. Ceiling of a late-inning relief arm. Stuff has taken off since he moved to the bullpen in September 2021. In short bursts, his velocity has increased and his secondaries have improved. Lacks a plus secondary pitch right now, but has shown bat-missing ability with both splitter and slider against minor league competition. If one of his secondaries takes a step forward along with his command, has late-inning potential.

 

Zack Kelly Projects as a middle reliever. Ceiling of a consistent seventh-inning arm. Likely lacks late-inning upside due to inconsistent command, but could stick around for a while as a sixth-inning arm. Fastball and changeup both project as plus pitches, with changeup showing true bat-missing ability. Cutter is more of a pitch-to-contact offering at present, but if it improves, would give him a third pitch that can miss bats. Late bloomer who could continue to improve and see his stuff take a step forward again.

 

Ronaldo Hernandez Potential up-and-down, bat-first catcher. Ceiling of an everyday catcher if he improves his defense and approach, but the likelihood of that happening is low. Type of defensive profile that could really benefit from robot umps. Power and arm are carrying tools, but questions about his approach, hit tool, and defensive profile cloud his future projection. Needs to improve hit profile to project as a major leaguer if defense stays as is. If he can even develop into a fringe-average defender with a below-average hit tool, could be an everyday player given his power and arm.

 

Eduard Bazardo Potential 11th or 12th pitcher on a major league staff. Ceiling of a quality middle reliever. Drastically improved velocity at the 2020 Fall Instructional League changed his projection, forcing the Red Sox to add him to the 40-man roster and putting him on the bullpen depth chart. Did not show that velocity after he got hurt in 2021, but as the 2022 season went on, velocity ticked back into the low-to-mid-90s. Potential for an above-average fastball and breaking ball combination with a jerky, deceptive delivery that could play against major league hitters. Needs to improve fastball command and improve consistency with his breaking ball in order to reach his ceiling.

 

I can't remember seeing so many in one year. 14 on this list with a chance for maybe someone like T Ward to make, it up as well.

 

There are also quite a few scheduled to arrive in 2024.

 

The farm pipeline is looking much better and in a quicker time frame than I thought it would take.

[moonslav59]

Besides the 15 players listed as 2023 arrivals, many of which may be inconsequential, here is the soxprospects.com list of 2024 arrivals:

 

1. Mayer (late '24)

5. York (mid)

17. Lugo (mid)

18. TWard (opening day)

22. Kavadas (late)

26. Abreu (opening day)

28. Drohan (late)

32. R Hernandez

33. Binelas

37. Ryan Fernandez

38. C Koss

44. D Hamilton

49. AJ Politi

50. J Wallace

56. Granberg

D Feltman

 

[Larry Cook]

He’s only 20 or so and would normally be a sophomore in college, but a lot of people gave up on him kinda fast…

 

I did not get to see him play live in 2022, but I did in 2021 and his bat to ball skill is very high end, if not tops in our minor league organization!

 

I think if he had been healthy and focused more on contact and less on taters, he would have had a better on base percentage than Kavadas!!!!

[moonslav59]

If we counted prospects who graduated, this year- Bello, Crawford, Winckowski & Duran- maybe this might be my end of season Top 40 Rankings:

 

1. Bello

2. Mayer

3. Casas

4. Bleis

5. Rafaela

6. Mata

7. Romero

8. Yorke

9. Walter

10. Paulino

11. Anthony

12. Perales

13. Wong

14. W Gonzalez

15. E Valdez

16. M Lugo

17. T Ward

18. B Jordan

19. B Bonaci

20. N Hickey

21. N Kavadas

22. C Murphy

23. W Abreu

24. C Crawford

25. C Murphy

26. E Rodriguez-Cruz

27. Z Kelly

28. F German

29. J Winckowski

30. J Duran

31. C Coffey

32. S Drohan

33. B Brannon

34. A Binelas

35. D Hamilton

36. R Hernandez

37. J Paez

38. E Bazardo

39. T Uberstine

40. Downs & Seabold

 

[mvp 78]

You have Kelly above German after touting German as a late inning arm all year?

[moonslav59]

You have Kelly above German after touting German as a late inning arm all year?

 

I like them both, but I think their small MLB sample sizes were just enough to flip them.

 

I still like German.

[mvp 78]

Ward left most recent start early. However, this was due to "side discomfort" and had nothing to do with his arm.

 

@ChrisHenrique

 

Red Sox pitching prospect Thad Ward left the game with the trainer in his second start in the Arizona Fall League.

 

He pitched three innings for the Scottsdale Scorpions.

 

Ward surrendered four hits, gave up two runs both earned, walked five and struck out two.

[moonslav59]

T-Ward could be a very pleasant surprise to the 2023 Sox. Mata, too.

 

The sheer number of ML ready or very near ML ready prospects for 2023 is astounding.

 

Sure, many have little promise, but if just 1 of the 5-6 lower promise players succeed along with 1-2 from the middle 5 and 2-3 from the better 5-6 group, we might be looking at a solid 2023 roster by mid season.

 

Bello

Casas

Mata (mid '23)

Ward (mid-late '23)

Rafaela (mid-late '23)

Walter (mid-late '23)

 

Wong

Crawford

Kelly

German

EValdez (mid '23)

 

Winckowski

Seabold

Downs

Murphy (mid-late '23)

Duran (post prospect)

 

Edited October 11, 2022 by moonslav59