9/25 Yankees at Red Sox

[moonslav59]

Fringe, shminge. Last night Houck's walk ratio per nine was over 16, not the 2.90 you assert.

 

16 smixteen. No way anyone knows what Houck might have done had he been left in.

 

Yes, he was wild, right before being yanked, but his stuff looked electric. Again, I'm not big on the recency effect, but sometimes pitchers just don't have it on a given night and the manager has to be ale to judge that correctly. Since we can never know all the what ifs, I will say that there have been countless times, it looked like a pitcher did not have his best stuff and I felt like he should be yanked, but Cora left the guy in, and he went on to do well or good enough.

 

There is merit to the idea of yanking Houck for DHern.

 

There is merit to the idea of yanking Houck for someone else.

 

There is merit to the idea of leaving Houck in.

 

We only know the results to one choice- in hindsight, so it's easy to think he made the wrong call.

 

I, for one, cannot bring myself to be overly critical of Cora for making a decision I would not have made, when he has proven my opinions wrong on so many previous choices made. I also view choices like this as impossible to label right or wrong based on the actual end result. The choice of calling on DHern might have worked 99 out of 100 times and was clearly the right call, but this was the 1 in a 100 time it fails, so we call Cora a bum or idiot. Of course, there's no way of knowing it was a 99 out of 100 time "right call," and I doubt any call is ever that "right," but you get my point.

 

I'm not saying Cora never makes mistakes, but I do think it is a complicated slope to climb, and posters seem so sure of themselves when they call out an "obvious" bad call. I realize some of the opinions given were before hindsight, and that does add some credence to the opinion given, but just because a poster may look like he was right on their opinion, does not mean they were right. Who knows what might have happened, with the choice not taken.

 

[moonslav59]

Maybe this loss showed that Cora needs to take the leap and treat G.Richards as his shutdown reliever, the guy who can come in in a big spot and get the job done. If the Red Sox make noise in the playoffs, you would expect some reliever to step up as a shutdown guy. It aint gonna be Hernandez, that's for sure.

 

At the time this went down, I was asked who I'd pitch. I said Houck for 3 or bring in Richards for the rest (implying .1 to 1.1 innings from Richards.) I still think that was right, but I will never say Cora made a mistake by bringing in DHern. Maybe, if we heard his reasoning, we'd think differently. Maybe not.

[moonslav59]

That HBP was actually the fourth ball to Rizzo, so it wasn't "one pitch."

 

Roble's first pitch was wild and cost a run, so you might have a point there. However, Robles is a high heat reliever. He loves fastballs and throws a lot of them. So why oh why throw a slider on his first pitch with a man on 3b?

 

And, I'm sorry, but three different relievers stunk in a close game against the Yankees in a late September game that makes a real difference. So did Eovaldi Friday. I don't think this was just random fate intruding. The Yankees pitchers, meanwhile, seemed to know what they were doing and pretty much dominated the Sox hitters despite the August addition of Schwarber, the September addition of Iglesias, the return of Kike, the vastly improved hitting of Dalbec, etc.

 

Had one pitch by DHern not been a ball, things might have changed. That was my point.

 

No doubt, 3 relievers and Eovaldi all sucking in a 2 game sample size sucks, but reading more into it just being one bad outing by a few players is reaching, to me. All these guys have stepped up and done well, in recent high leverage games.

 

I also would not proclaim the Yank pitchers have dominated. In yesterday's game, they let up more hits and twice as many HRs. It was all about timing- not necessarily skill or ability.

 

I'm sure, if we lose, today, you guys will all jump on me and say, "see, I told you they were chokes," but I don't see it that way, at all.

 

These guys have over performed, all year. Their grit is exemplified by all their come from behind wins and breaking the Sox record for 3 rum HRs in a season. Just because we hit a ruff patch at the exact wrong time doesn't necessarily mean we have some mental deficiency or choke complex.

 

I think we'll win today, but I doubt that will even convince all the nay-sayers that this team deserves making the playoffs.

 

BTW, deserving the playoffs may not be so much about us being great, as much as it is about us having fewer weak areas than teams like the Yanks and Jays.

 

Harmony can make valid claims about strength of interleague games, but there is no doubt the Sox had one of the toughest schedules in MLB, up to this point. We have nothing to be ashamed of. We deserve a playoff ticket as much or more than any other team in the WC chase. Only the Jays have a higher run differential.

 

We can be happy the Yanks play the Jays next, and one of them has to lose 2-3 games, so our destiny is in our own hands, even if we lose, today.

 

BTW, the Jays are up 5-2 in the 9th, so today's game will determine us being 1 ahead of the Jays or 2, after today- assuming they hold on.

[Bellhorn04]

Houck 2.90 walk ratio per nine.

Hernandez 6.89 per nine.

 

The former is a major caliber pitcher, the latter is fringe. There is no way I'm bringing in a fringe pitcher in that spot with Stanton on deck.

 

I know this won't convince you either, but here are their career splits against LH hitters (only about 79 MLB innings for each)

 

Houck .653 OPS

DHern .571 OPS

[moonslav59]

I know this won't convince you either, but here are their career splits against LH hitters (only about 79 MLB innings for each)

 

Houck .653 OPS

DHern .571 OPS

 

Couple that with this:

 

Rizzo career:

.874 v RHP

.787 v LHP

 

The choice had merit. It wasn't a baseless decision.

[Fan_since_Boggs]

I know this won't convince you either, but here are their career splits against LH hitters (only about 79 MLB innings for each)

 

Houck .653 OPS

DHern .571 OPS

 

I'm not convinced by that because: due to Hern's outrageous walk ratio, I'm not convinced he can get Rizzo out and so ultimately I'm expecting him to face off against Stanton. If the Red Sox turned to a quality left-handed reliever in that spot, the argument for bringing that reliever in is much more reasonable.

 

Hern is always fighting his control--I have no confidence in him especially in a big spot, big game against quality hitters.

[moonslav59]

I'm not convinced by that because: due to Hern's outrageous walk ratio, I'm not convinced he can get Rizzo out and so ultimately he is going to face off against Stanton. If the Red Sox turned to a quality left-handed reliever in that spot, the argument for bringing that reliever in is much more reasonable.

 

Hern is always fighting his control--I have no confidence in him especially in a big spot, big game against quality hitters.

 

No doubt, it was a gamble. It looked terrifying, to me, too, but leaving Houck in was no given choice, either.

 

I agreed with your position. I just disagree with assigning so much blame on the manager for making a choice that had some merit.

[Bellhorn04]

I'm not convinced by that because: due to Hern's outrageous walk ratio, I'm not convinced he can get Rizzo out and so ultimately he is going to face off against Stanton. If the Red Sox turned to a quality left-handed reliever in that spot, the argument for bringing that reliever in is much more reasonable.

 

Hern is always fighting his control--I have no confidence in him especially in a big spot, big game against quality hitters.

 

571 is 571.

 

Also, Houck has virtually zero experience as a late inning reliever so how can you have confidence that he'd get Rizzo there?

[dgalehouse]

The manager makes the decisions. It is up to the players to execute. People forget that the opponent is trying to succeed also . Nothing is that easy. Rizzo doesn't chase many pitches. And Stanton has a ton of power. These guys are making a lot of money for a reason. So easy to second guess .

[dgalehouse]

Feel pretty confident about tonight's game . And the easy finishing schedule lies ahead . Relax folks.

[SPLENDIDSPLINTER]

Feel pretty confident about tonight's game . And the easy finishing schedule lies ahead . Relax folks.

 

I'll have what he's smoking.

[moonslav59]

I'll have what he's smoking.

 

We are 3-1 in games against Montgomery, this season. Our loss was 5-3 in a 7 inning game where Jordan let up 3 ERs in 4.2 IP.

 

With ERod starting vs the Yanks, we are 3-0 winning 7-3, 4-0 and 6-2.

 

Why not try to think about positive things?

 

Career, ERod is 8-6 with a 3.73 ERA.

Montgomery is 1-2 with a 3.91 ERA vs BOS (0-1 4.62 in Fenway)

 

 

[Fan_since_Boggs]

571 is 571.

 

Also, Houck has virtually zero experience as a late inning reliever so how can you have confidence that he'd get Rizzo there?

 

He already had two strikeouts that inning, I'm feeling pretty good about his ability to get a third out.

 

Managers can sometimes overthink things, and maybe that's what happened when Cora took out Houck for the lefty. I liked Houck's stuff that inning, it was crisp, hard to hit. I guess I'm relying on the eye ball test to some extent but relievers just can't be successful when they have a walk ratio as high as Hernandez's and so I'm not trusting him in that spot.

[moonslav59]

He already had two strikeouts that inning, I'm feeling pretty good about his ability to get a third out.

 

Managers can sometimes overthink things, and maybe that's what happened when Cora took out Houck for the lefty. I liked Houck's stuff that inning, it was crisp, hard to hit. I guess I'm relying on the eye ball test to some extent but relievers just can't be successful when they have a walk ratio as high as Hernandez's and so I'm not trusting him in that spot.

 

I agree with everything you said, here, but I can't see why the blame goes all on Cora for making a call that has some merit.