2021 MLB draft

[Hugh2]

FO is saying they'll sign 13-14, so maybe they do intend on going over way over slot for Green. IDK. I think it's more likely they sign 18-19 and don't get Green.

 

If they sign Green I still think they're signing 17-18 guys.

 

I think Green is insurance if Fabian doesn't sign. If they can't reach a deal with Fabian they will get the 41st pick next year (and hopefully the 32 too) and maybe they can convince Green to sign with 1.2-1.5 million.

[mvp 78]

Sox have signed 13 draft picks so far.

 

Waiting on Jud, Hickey, Niko, Erhard, Green, Guerrero and Hood.

[jacksonianmarch]

Fabian will not sign. He wants $3 mil, Sox won’t offer it

[moonslav59]

Fabian will not sign. He wants $3 mil, Sox won’t offer it

 

How did we not know this before drafting him?

[Hugh2]

I’ll be upset after the deadline passes

[mvp 78]

Ken Davidoff of the New York Post reports that the Mets' agreement with 10th overall pick Kumar Rocker is in limbo due to concerns about his pitching elbow.

Uh oh. The Mets had an agreement in place for $6 million prior to the physical and apparently something popped up during the exam.

[Hugh2]

The Sox currently have $3,100,680 left in bonus pool money with two guys left to sign. The Sox are probably sitting somewhere around $2.3-$2.5 with Judd who will have to come down from 3 million. Maybe they meet in the middle at 2.65 million.

 

This would leave $450K for Hickey who wants more than slot (which is 410K).

 

This may work, but it might push Kavadas out of the window. If the Sox bump up Fabian to where Hickey won't sign they lose his pool money so the max money they can realistically offer Fabian is 2.67 million. Until they know what Hickey will sign for, they CAN'T offer him more than that. Maybe Hickey ends up going a little under and they can bump that up to 2.7 but this feels like it comes down to the wire.

 

The worst-case scenario is Fabian not signing. The consolation price there is you know Hickey will sign, Kavadas, and maybe you grab 1-2 of the other guys unsigned not named Green. And of course, you pick up the 41st pick in next year's draft.

 

I think the chance of Fabian not signing is real here, but I think it's also very likely someone or somebodies are just posturing and negotiating. We won't know for about 4 days.

[Fan_since_Boggs]

The worst-case scenario is Fabian not signing. The consolation price there is you know Hickey will sign, Kavadas, and maybe you grab 1-2 of the other guys unsigned not named Green. And of course, you pick up the 41st pick in next year's draft.

 

Good summary.

 

en Davidoff of the New York Post reports that the Mets' agreement with 10th overall pick Kumar Rocker is in limbo due to concerns about his pitching elbow.

Oh, boy. I wonder how this gets resolved. I'm not surprised to hear this, as an elbow issue would explain Rocker's inconsistent velocity. I can't picture this deal totally collapsing. Even if he needs TJ Surgery, he could still develop into a quality starter. Then again, maybe the Mets would rather not sign him and would prefer to gain a pick next year?

[mvp 78]

Good summary.

 

 

Oh, boy. I wonder how this gets resolved. I'm not surprised to hear this, as an elbow issue would explain Rocker's inconsistent velocity. I can't picture this deal totally collapsing. Even if he needs TJ Surgery, he could still develop into a quality starter. Then again, maybe the Mets would rather not sign him and would prefer to gain a pick next year?

 

I don't think it works that way. I think they need to offer him slot.

[Hugh2]

I don't think it works that way. I think they need to offer him slot.

 

I believe they have to offer him at least 75% of slot. problem is, what do they do with the rest of that money? This is why you draft a guy like Green every year you can't sign.......because if we were the Mets we'd be signing him right now.

[mvp 78]

What does Jud think he could reasonably get next year in the draft? Does he think he'll go top 10-15? If he's still hanging around at 25, he would get about the same $$$ that the Sox may offer. Seems like a risky strategy that could backfire. Another year with a 35% k rate could scare even more teams away.

[mvp 78]

I'm also dubious that other teams would have been able to pay him $3M. That's a lot to squeeze in unless the team was going way under in round 1.

[mvp 78]

@redsoxstats

On his podcast today @jimcallisMLB breaks down the Fabian stuff. Sounds like O's were giving him $3M at pick 41, Sox took him at pick 40 and once Hickey is signed they may only have $2.1M for Jud. A risk, but get the pick back next year.

[mvp 78]

The MLB draft and International Signing Period are stupid.

[moonslav59]

@redsoxstats

On his podcast today @jimcallisMLB breaks down the Fabian stuff. Sounds like O's were giving him $3M at pick 41, Sox took him at pick 40 and once Hickey is signed they may only have $2.1M for Jud. A risk, but get the pick back next year.

 

Sign Hickey and call Fabian's bluff.

 

If it's not a bluff, better luck, next year with the comp pick.

Edited July 28, 2021 by moonslav59

[Hugh2]

I'm also dubious that other teams would have been able to pay him $3M. That's a lot to squeeze in unless the team was going way under in round 1.

 

Teams behind us went way under slot, Baltimore and KC would have had plenty of money to sign him.

[Fan_since_Boggs]

Sign Hickey and call Fabian's bluff.

 

 

This would be my strategy. If Fabian doesn't sign, the harm is minimal since the Red Sox get the pick back next year.

 

Also, I don't understand the position: if the Red Sox don't sign Fabien, they could perhaps sign Green. I don't see or understand where the money would come from for Green.

 

So if the Mets offer Rocker 75% of slot value and he doesn't sign, the Mets get the pick back next year? That's a far cry from signing Rocker for over slot, which was what Rocker was expecting and the Mets were prepared to pay him. If the Mets sign Rocker for 75% of slot, they could use the saved money on other draft picks. On the other hand, perhaps the Mets didn't select any hard-to-sign over slot types later in the draft?

 

Of course, there is a chance Rocker won't sign for 75% of slot or even full slot value, in which case the Mets lose that money. But if the Mets don't have any hard-to-sign draftees, it doesn't really matter and they would get the pick back next year.

 

Back to Fabian, if he is some middle class kid, he would be crazy to pass on 2 million or 2.5 million, that is still life changing money and a lot of money for most people. If he is already wealthy--born into a wealthy family--I can understand taking the risk.

Edited July 28, 2021 by Fan_since_Boggs

[Hugh2]

This would be my strategy. If Fabian doesn't sign, the harm is minimal since the Red Sox get the pick back next year.

 

Also, I don't understand the position: if the Red Sox don't sign Fabien, they could perhaps sign Green. I don't see or understand where the money would come from for Green.

 

So if the Mets offer Rocker 75% of slot value and he doesn't sign, the Mets get the pick back next year? That's a far cry from signing Rocker for over slot, which was what Rocker was expecting and the Mets were prepared to pay him. If the Mets sign Rocker for 75% of slot, they could use the saved money on other draft picks. On the other hand, perhaps the Mets didn't select any hard-to-sign over slot types later in the draft?

 

Of course, there is a chance Rocker won't sign for 75% of slot or even full slot value, in which case the Mets lose that money. But if the Mets don't have any hard to sign guys, it doesn't really matter and they would get the pick back next year.

 

Back to Fabian, if he is some middle class kid, he would be crazy to pass on 2 million or 2.5 million, that is still life changing money and a lot of money to most people. If he is already wealthy--born into a wealthy family--I can understand taking the risk.

 

Supposedly Greens price tag is high, really high, like 1st round money high. If Fabian doesn't sign you lose his slot and Hickey is going above slot. The most you could offer Green is if both Hickey and Fabian don't sign and that number is about 800K which is probably 1/2 of what it will take.

 

Supposedly Hickey is also asking for 1 million. What I find strange is Hickey and Fabian are team mates.

[mvp 78]

This would be my strategy. If Fabian doesn't sign, the harm is minimal since the Red Sox get the pick back next year.

 

Also, I don't understand the position: if the Red Sox don't sign Fabien, they could perhaps sign Green. I don't see or understand where the money would come from for Green.

 

So if the Mets offer Rocker 75% of slot value and he doesn't sign, the Mets get the pick back next year? That's a far cry from signing Rocker for over slot, which was what Rocker was expecting and the Mets were prepared to pay him. If the Mets sign Rocker for 75% of slot, they could use the saved money on other draft picks. On the other hand, perhaps the Mets didn't select any hard-to-sign over slot types later in the draft?

 

Of course, there is a chance Rocker won't sign for 75% of slot or even full slot value, in which case the Mets lose that money. But if the Mets don't have any hard to sign guys, it doesn't really matter and they would get the pick back next year.

 

Back to Fabian, if he is some middle class kid, he would be crazy to pass on 2 million or 2.5 million, that is still life changing money and a lot of money to most people. If he is already wealthy--born into a wealthy family--I can understand taking the risk.

 

Green's dad said they'd need more than that to sign him.

 

I agree that they should sign Hickey and Niko and offer Jud whatever is left. If he doesn't take it? Bye bye bye bye...

[moonslav59]

Hickey signs for $1M. That’s the highest payment to anyone rounds 4-10.

 

The slot was $410K.

 

Does this mean no chance for Fabian?

[Hugh2]

Hickey signs for $1M. That’s the highest payment to anyone rounds 4-10.

 

The slot was $410K.

 

Does this mean no chance for Fabian?

 

It means he has zero leverage. Sign for 2.1 million or go home.

 

The Sox must really like Hickey, they probably sign Kavadas now too and take the 41st pick in next years draft.

[Fan_since_Boggs]

Here's a good article on the players that have not yet signed:

Of the 312 players selected in the first 10 rounds, just six have not come to terms. Most or all of them are expected to do so before the Sunday deadline.

 

2021 MLB Draft signing deadline picks unsigned

WWW.MLB.COM

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For the first time in three years, a first-round pick failed to come to terms with the team that selected him. The Draft signing deadline passed at 5 p.m. ET on Sunday without No. 10 overall choice Kumar Rocker reaching an accord with the Mets. MLB Pipeline's top-rated prospect entering

 

Rocker is the most interesting. I'm wondering if the Mets didn't like the medicals and decided to lower their offer, hoping Rocker goes back to college, allowing the Mets to get next year's 11th pick.

 

As far as Fabian goes, I think it is a settled matter--he is going back to college and the Red Sox will get next year's 41st pick. That could be a good thing and will give the Red Sox more spending flexibility. For example, let's say the Red Sox go big in the first round next year and decide to take a hard-to-sign high school prospect in the late first. They could pull extra resources from the 41st pick if necessary. Alternatively, the Red Sox could go slot with the first round pick and take a hard-to-sign high school prospect with the 41st pick, pulling resources from subsequent picks.

[jacksonianmarch]

Mayer is clearly the cream here, but Fabian is what made this draft so good, IMO. Subbing him out makes this draft less of a homerun as it looks like they drafted with the idea that they'd have to overpay Fabian and Hickey, so they played it safe thereafter

[Fan_since_Boggs]

Interesting, the Mets could offer Rocker ZERO and they would still recover the pick (according to this source):

 

Typically, a team has to offer a player 40% of his slotted bonus -- the 10th-pick slot is $4.74 million -- to reap a compensation pick for an unsigned player. Because Rocker was selected for the league's pre-draft MRI program and did not participate, however, the rules allow the Mets to forgo an offer and still receive the pick. Players expected to be drafted high often skip the program, which makes a player's medical information available to all 30 teams.

https://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/31934790/new-york-mets-plan-sign-top-pick-kumar-rocker-concerns-physical-exam-sources-say

 

It sounds like the Mets saw something in his medicals and decided they would rather have next year's 11th than sign Rocker. They are probably on to something. Boras claims there is nothing wrong with Rocker but Boras is usually full of s***.

 

 

No one knows Rocker's plans for the future. The article above could only speculate:

It is unclear whether Rocker will return to Vanderbilt or pursue an alternate path, such as pitching in an independent league before reentering the 2022 draft or signing with an international league.

Edited August 1, 2021 by Fan_since_Boggs

[Hugh2]

Mayer is clearly the cream here, but Fabian is what made this draft so good, IMO. Subbing him out makes this draft less of a homerun as it looks like they drafted with the idea that they'd have to overpay Fabian and Hickey, so they played it safe thereafter

 

It’s not like they’re just losing the pick, they get back 41 and the money with it next year. Next year is said to be loaded with prep pitchers. Going to be nice having 2 in the top 41.

[jacksonianmarch]

Fabian was a preseason top 10 draft pick with some of the best power in the whole draft. He wasn’t your typical 41st selection

[Fan_since_Boggs]

It’s not like they’re just losing the pick, they get back 41 and the money with it next year. Next year is said to be loaded with prep pitchers. Going to be nice having 2 in the top 41.

 

Good to hear--I think the Red Sox should load up with prep pitchers in the next draft. The Red Sox have a big wave of infield prospects coming: Casas, Mayer, Yorke, and Jordan. The Red Sox have a wave of pitching prospects coming soon: Bello, Mata, Groome. I guess the OF prospects are a little thin, but Duran will be with the Red Sox for a long time and an organization can always find outfielders.

 

The Red Sox do need to build another layer of pitching prospects behind the next wave and the 2022 draft could be used to build that layer.

[moonslav59]

Kinda wish we’d have signed Fabian and let others slide.

[Hugh2]

Kinda wish we’d have signed Fabian and let others slide.

 

Not that it isn’t a disappointment, but if they don’t sign Hickey they don’t get a pick back. At least with Fabian they get #41 next year. After a two year freeze bonuses are going up next year so it should be a lot more money.

[jacksonianmarch]

Good to hear--I think the Red Sox should load up with prep pitchers in the next draft. The Red Sox have a big wave of infield prospects coming: Casas, Mayer, Yorke, and Jordan. The Red Sox have a wave of pitching prospects coming soon: Bello, Mata, Groome. I guess the OF prospects are a little thin, but Duran will be with the Red Sox for a long time and an organization can always find outfielders.

 

The Red Sox do need to build another layer of pitching prospects behind the next wave and the 2022 draft could be used to build that layer.

 

Jay Groome has done nothing to say he is part of a wave of anything. The guy can't throw strikes or go deep in games. He looks like a reliever. Mata just had TJS, and while that doesn't entirely disqualify him, it does push back his timeline likely into 2023. Bello is intriguing and just reached AA. He is likely to be more of a mid season callup next year at best, although I like his stuff