Moneyball and the mechanization and computerization of MLB

[Maxbialystock]

German officers have/had a term--fingerspitzengefuhl--that means "finger tip feel" and refers to a commander's situational awareness of what is happening on the battlefield. I think the best football coaches, even the ones who rely heavily on computers and game plans, assistants in the press boxes, etc, have that situational awareness and that it helps them make what are often spur of the moment decisions on who to play and what formation/play should be used.

 

Baseball used to be that way. Remember Grady Little's decision to keep Pedro Martinez on the mound in the 2003 ALCS game which allowed the Yankees to come back? Grady had lousy situational awareness and was correctly fired after that season. But to my way of thinking those kinds of human errors are the essence of sports and baseball and should be celebrated (unless your a huge Sox fan, which I am).

 

These days MLB managers rely less and less on understanding what is happening on the field and more and more on what the computer says.

 

Last night Kevin Cash displayed that phenomenon perfectly. And, by the way, substituting computer sense for situational awareness has worked wonderfully for the Rays. They have a codified system for acquiring players (on a very low payroll), developing them, and now orchestrating how they are positioned on the field, when and how pitching changes are made, etc.

 

Cash confirmed this last part last night. It mattered not a whit to him that Snell was pitching the game of a lifetime (5.1 innings, 73 pitches, 9 K's, 0 walks, 0 runs, 9 K's) or that Snell had struck out the next three batters (Betts, Seager, Turner) he would have faced six out of six plate appearance.

 

What did matter is that the computer told him that the third time through the batting order is fraught with peril--indeed, hopeless--no matter how well the starter is pitching. The computer also did not care that Anderson, the guy who came in, was tired and had an ERA of over 7 (which became 9) in this WS. And, if the computer didn't care, Kevin Cash didn't either. And neither does the Rays hierarchy. What was it Humphrey Bogart said near the end of the movie, The African Queen? "The Germans have their systems and they sticks to 'em."

 

Let me hasten to add that all managers use computers today all the time: before games, during games, after games. So it's clearly too late to put that genie back in the bottle. Indeed, I suspect that Dave Roberts relied heavily on computer information to make six pitching changes last night (he used 7 pitchers). It's remotely possible that Kevin Cash was resentful that he couldn't pull Snell out sooner because these days that's how managers show how smart they are--they bring in a new pitcher. Only dumb managers rely on players (more than computers) to win the games.

 

Speaking of situational awareness, I thought the Dodgers displayed far more of it than the Rays, who in one game had men on 2d and 3d and no outs when the batter hit a grounder to the third baseman. That resulted in both runners being thrown out and the batter ending up on 1B. On the other hand, whenever Mookie Betts was on base, it usually spelled trouble because he knew when to gamble, plus the Rays players routinely made the wrong defensive play under pressure.

[dgalehouse]

Old school , baseball sense , gut feeling , tobacco spitting, beer drinking , no nonsense managing vs. New school , data driven, analytics loving , nerd consulting, geek web site studying , five hour energy, sabermetrics managing. The debate rages on . It should sustain us through the long , cold winter and the " not so " hot stove league.

[notin]

German officers have/had a term--fingerspitzengefuhl--that means "finger tip feel" and refers to a commander's situational awareness of what is happening on the battlefield. I think the best football coaches, even the ones who rely heavily on computers and game plans, assistants in the press boxes, etc, have that situational awareness and that it helps them make what are often spur of the moment decisions on who to play and what formation/play should be used.

 

Baseball used to be that way. Remember Grady Little's decision to keep Pedro Martinez on the mound in the 2003 ALCS game which allowed the Yankees to come back? Grady had lousy situational awareness and was correctly fired after that season. But to my way of thinking those kinds of human errors are the essence of sports and baseball and should be celebrated (unless your a huge Sox fan, which I am).

 

These days MLB managers rely less and less on understanding what is happening on the field and more and more on what the computer says.

 

Last night Kevin Cash displayed that phenomenon perfectly. And, by the way, substituting computer sense for situational awareness has worked wonderfully for the Rays. They have a codified system for acquiring players (on a very low payroll), developing them, and now orchestrating how they are positioned on the field, when and how pitching changes are made, etc.

 

Cash confirmed this last part last night. It mattered not a whit to him that Snell was pitching the game of a lifetime (5.1 innings, 73 pitches, 9 K's, 0 walks, 0 runs, 9 K's) or that Snell had struck out the next three batters (Betts, Seager, Turner) he would have faced six out of six plate appearance.

 

What did matter is that the computer told him that the third time through the batting order is fraught with peril--indeed, hopeless--no matter how well the starter is pitching. The computer also did not care that Anderson, the guy who came in, was tired and had an ERA of over 7 (which became 9) in this WS. And, if the computer didn't care, Kevin Cash didn't either. And neither does the Rays hierarchy. What was it Humphrey Bogart said near the end of the movie, The African Queen? "The Germans have their systems and they sticks to 'em."

 

Let me hasten to add that all managers use computers today all the time: before games, during games, after games. So it's clearly too late to put that genie back in the bottle. Indeed, I suspect that Dave Roberts relied heavily on computer information to make six pitching changes last night (he used 7 pitchers). It's remotely possible that Kevin Cash was resentful that he couldn't pull Snell out sooner because these days that's how managers show how smart they are--they bring in a new pitcher. Only dumb managers rely on players (more than computers) to win the games.

 

Speaking of situational awareness, I thought the Dodgers displayed far more of it than the Rays, who in one game had men on 2d and 3d and no outs when the batter hit a grounder to the third baseman. That resulted in both runners being thrown out and the batter ending up on 1B. On the other hand, whenever Mookie Betts was on base, it usually spelled trouble because he knew when to gamble, plus the Rays players routinely made the wrong defensive play under pressure.

 

Somewhere Pete Carroll is breathing a heavy sigh. Since this is now the most second-guessed coaching decision since his Super Bowl XLIX play-calling...

[moonslav59]

Sorry. I find it hard to criticize Grady for pulling Pedro and Cash for pulling Snell, at the same time.

 

I realize the pitch counts were different. The pen choices were different, but IMO, you live or die with your best guy on the mound, unless his arm is dangling from the socket.

 

The Pedro choice certainly made more sense than the Snell one, but both were the best each team had and were doing well.

[notin]

Sorry. I find it hard to criticize Grady for pulling Pedro and Cash for pulling Snell, at the same time.

 

I realize the pitch counts were different. The pen choices were different, but IMO, you live or die with your best guy on the mound, unless his arm is dangling from the socket.

 

The Pedro choice certainly made more sense than the Snell one, but both were the best each team had and were doing well.

 

THe problem wasn't Grady pulling Pedro. It was leaving him in too long. However, he did have the defense that his bullpen was horrible that whole season. Cash, on the other hand, had a terrific bullpen all season long...

[Bellhorn04]

IMO, you live or die with your best guy on the mound, unless his arm is dangling from the socket.

 

Wow, you're more old school than I realized!

[Bellhorn04]

The Pedro choice certainly made more sense than the Snell one, but both were the best each team had and were doing well.

 

Pedro gave the 'heavenward thank you' as he was coming off the mound after the 7th. He thought he was done. He said so later.

[moonslav59]

Pedro gave the 'heavenward thank you' as he was coming off the mound after the 7th. He thought he was done. He said so later.

 

I'd still take a 50% Pedro over a 100% Embree everyday of the week and twice on Sundays.

 

His arm was not dangling.

 

The hit that beat him was a cheezy flair hit. Had he popped out to 2B, we'd have never heard a peep. Now, it's the worst managerial decision in Sox history.

 

If that's "old school," count me in.

 

[Bellhorn04]

Cash, on the other hand, had a terrific bullpen all season long...

 

That's true, but Anderson had been struggling badly, giving up runs in 6 straight appearances, probably showing signs of being worn down. You wonder why Cash gave so little weight to that side of it.

[Bellhorn04]

I'd still take a 50% Pedro over a 100% Embree everyday of the week and twice on Sundays.

 

His arm was not dangling.

 

The hit that beat him was a cheezy flair hit. Had he popped out to 2B, we'd have never heard a peep. Now, it's the worst managerial decision in Sox history.

 

If that's "old school," count me in.

 

 

The hit by Posada may have been a flare - the issue is that it was the 4th hit in a row - and it came after a ROCKET by Matsui.

[moonslav59]

Pedro gave the 'heavenward thank you' as he was coming off the mound after the 7th. He thought he was done. He said so later.

 

Remember when Pedro came in in relief in that Guardians playoff game and went like 7 innings all tired out?

 

Had he let up a ton of runs, would that have been worse than the Little decision?

 

Hindsight sure is 20-20.

 

(I know many felt the Little choice was right, before the losing hit, but not me. I was pissed he was pulled.)

[moonslav59]

The hit by Posada may have been a flare - the issue is that it was the 4th hit in a row - and it came after a ROCKET by Matsui.

 

Yes, the Matsui hit was maybe the hardest hit of the night.

 

Pedro will always be "the man" in my book.

[notin]

That's true, but Anderson had been struggling badly, giving up runs in 6 straight appearances, probably showing signs of being worn down. You wonder why Cash gave so little weight to that side of it.

 

But the thing is, Anderson didn't get rocked that inning. He did give up the double to Betts. But the killer was that he threw a wild pitch to tie the game. If he doesn't throw one, do you think Barnes (much slower than Betts) scores on a grounder to first?

 

And if Barnes is out at the plate, Turner's flyball ends the inning with 0 runs scored. (This does assume Anderson throws the same pitches in different situations, but without the WP it's not hard to envision getting out of the inning, either.)

[notin]

That's true, but Anderson had been struggling badly, giving up runs in 6 straight appearances, probably showing signs of being worn down. You wonder why Cash gave so little weight to that side of it.

 

He went with his strength, which was his bullpen all season long.

 

Since he has not really said why he pulled him, a lot of people are jumping to conclusions. But Cash didn't put have the best season in the AL because he did not know what he was doing...

[Bellhorn04]

He went with his strength, which was his bullpen all season long.

 

Since he has not really said why he pulled him, a lot of people are jumping to conclusions. But Cash didn't put have the best season in the AL because he did not know what he was doing...

 

Cash said it was the pre-game plan not to let him face the lineup a third time, did he not?

[notin]

Remember when Pedro came in in relief in that Guardians playoff game and went like 7 innings all tired out?

 

Had he let up a ton of runs, would that have been worse than the Little decision?

 

Hindsight sure is 20-20.

 

(I know many felt the Little choice was right, before the losing hit, but not me. I was pissed he was pulled.)

 

Or when Jimy Williams started Pete Schourek in the "must win" game 4 of the 1998 ALDS with Pedro available on short rest. Williams was crucified for the call before the game was even played, but Schourek pitched a gem that day. And then Tom Gordon fell apart...

[notin]

Cash said it was the pre-game plan not to let him face the lineup a third time, did he not?

 

So he was planning on going with the strength of his bullpen?

[notin]

Cash said it was the pre-game plan not to let him face the lineup a third time, did he not?

 

Do you think that Betts was a .304/.370/.522 hitter in 27 PA vs Snell also mattered? Mookie was the one guy in their lineup with a long history against Snell..

[Maxbialystock]

Old school , baseball sense , gut feeling , tobacco spitting, beer drinking , no nonsense managing vs. New school , data driven, analytics loving , nerd consulting, geek web site studying , five hour energy, sabermetrics managing. The debate rages on . It should sustain us through the long , cold winter and the " not so " hot stove league.

 

A fair point, but, based on the responses so far, I'd have to say no one on talksox (so far) is arguing to go with the computer no matter what. And that's my quarrel. Computers are here to stay, but last night Kevin Cash reminded me of the Scarecrow in the Wizard of Oz: "I haven't got a brain."

 

Even worse, I'm betting the Rays President of Baseball Operations (or whatever they call him) is fine with a brainless manager as long as he does what the computer tells him to do. They Rays have their systems, and they sticks to 'em. I am of course exaggerating because I certainly don't think Kevin Cash is brainless. Nevertheless, I thought he at least implied last night that he would make the same decision again because computers know better.

[dgalehouse]

Or when Jimy Williams started Pete Schourek in the "must win" game 4 of the 1998 ALDS with Pedro available on short rest. Williams was crucified for the call before the game was even played, but Schourek pitched a gem that day. And then Tom Gordon fell apart...

 

We take you back now to Fenway Park 1948 , when Red Sox skipper, Joe McCarthy , elected to go with the rather mediocre journeyman , Denny Galehouse , rather than ace Mel Parnell in a one game playoff with the Cleveland Guardians. The results were predictably disastrous. Analytics did not exist back then , but stupidity sure did.

[Maxbialystock]

But the thing is, Anderson didn't get rocked that inning. He did give up the double to Betts. But the killer was that he threw a wild pitch to tie the game. If he doesn't throw one, do you think Barnes (much slower than Betts) scores on a grounder to first?

 

And if Barnes is out at the plate, Turner's flyball ends the inning with 0 runs scored. (This does assume Anderson throws the same pitches in different situations, but without the WP it's not hard to envision getting out of the inning, either.)

 

Are you joking? Are you really saying that, short of giving up back to back dingers, Anderson was doing fine out there? He gave up a hard hit double to the same guy Snell had struck out twice in the game and then made a wild pitch. He himself said after the game he did not have good command or good stuff.

[Maxbialystock]

Do you think that Betts was a .304/.370/.522 hitter in 27 PA vs Snell also mattered? Mookie was the one guy in their lineup with a long history against Snell..

 

Yeah, that's why Mookie broke into a grin when he saw Cash pull Snell--and why his manager smiled back at him--because Anderson in that situation was going to be much tougher than Snell.

 

I have no doubt that the game plan was to pull Snell after he had pitched to the Dodgers lineup twice, but that's my point. Cash had zero situation awareness and did not care that: Snell was having a career night and had struck out the next three batters all six times he faced them; Anderson was tired; Anderson was not effective against the Dodgers in this World Series; Snell had only thrown 73 pitches.

 

And while we're on the topic of Kevin Cash's genius and superior situational awareness, please explain to me how in the previous game (when the Dodgers won 4-2 and went up 3 games to 2) Cash decided to leave Glasnow in for 5 innings, 103 pitches, and 4 cotton picking runs, including 2 dingers? And what happened to the "don't let him pitch to the Dodgers lineup a third time" rule? I ask because by my count Glasnow faced 24 Dodger batters (15 outs, 6 hits, and 3 walks). Snell, having a spectacular game, was jerked after facing 18 batters.

[notin]

Are you joking? Are you really saying that, short of giving up back to back dingers, Anderson was doing fine out there? He gave up a hard hit double to the same guy Snell had struck out twice in the game and then made a wild pitch. He himself said after the game he did not have good command or good stuff.

 

Of course he said he did not have his good stuff, and he didn't. But the Rays got where they were by riding their bullpen, too.

 

And really, if Anderson doesn't have that WP, do you not see that entire inning being drastically different?

[Bellhorn04]

Do you think that Betts was a .304/.370/.522 hitter in 27 PA vs Snell also mattered? Mookie was the one guy in their lineup with a long history against Snell..

 

Pretty sure those numbers are regular season only, and don't include the 5 World Series PA's which resulted in 3 K's, a groundout and a walk.

 

Not really scary enough numbers or a large enough sample to influence the move, IMHO.

[Bellhorn04]

Of course he said he did not have his good stuff, and he didn't. But the Rays got where they were by riding their bullpen, too.

 

And really, if Anderson doesn't have that WP, do you not see that entire inning being drastically different?

 

"If he doesn't have that WP" is kind of like that joke, "other than that, Mrs. Lincoln, did you enjoy the play?"

[notin]

Yeah, that's why Mookie broke into a grin when he saw Cash pull Snell--and why his manager smiled back at him--because Anderson in that situation was going to be much tougher than Snell.

 

I have no doubt that the game plan was to pull Snell after he had pitched to the Dodgers lineup twice, but that's my point. Cash had zero situation awareness and did not care that: Snell was having a career night and had struck out the next three batters all six times he faced them; Anderson was tired; Anderson was not effective against the Dodgers in this World Series; Snell had only thrown 73 pitches.

 

And while we're on the topic of Kevin Cash's genius and superior situational awareness, please explain to me how in the previous game (when the Dodgers won 4-2 and went up 3 games to 2) Cash decided to leave Glasnow in for 5 innings, 103 pitches, and 4 cotton picking runs, including 2 dingers? And what happened to the "don't let him pitch to the Dodgers lineup a third time" rule? I ask because by my count Glasnow faced 24 Dodger batters (15 outs, 6 hits, and 3 walks). Snell, having a spectacular game, was jerked after facing 18 batters.

 

Well, like I said, the game plan was clearly to ride the bullpen. Since he was not able to get a good game out of Glasnow, it's possible he decided to change his strategy for game 6, when his back was up against the wall. What are you saying - that he has to use the same strategy every day?

 

And really, we don;t know how much of his "twice through the lineup" plan was based on conversations with Snell, or what he felt he could get out of his pen, or possibly even his desire to use Snell as an emergency reliever the next day.

 

The bottom line is, none of us really know everything behind why Snell was pulled.

 

And leave Snell in or pull him out, the Rays only scored one run and were shutout the final 8 innings. THAT was a much bigger factor in losing...

[notin]

"If he doesn't have that WP" is kind of like that joke, "other than that, Mrs. Lincoln, did you enjoy the play?"

 

Ummm.. no

[Bellhorn04]

Ummm.. no

 

"If he didn't" just isn't valid.

[Maxbialystock]

Cash said it was the pre-game plan not to let him face the lineup a third time, did he not?

 

If Cash really said that, he is a raving idiot. As I just pointed out to Notin, how come Cash didn't follow that plan in the previous game when his starter Glasnow went five innings, gave up 4 runs, and faced--wait for it--24 batters.

 

Cash and the Rays had a great season, especially given their payroll. But that doesn't mean Cash never makes mistakes.

[mvp 78]

Pedro gave the 'heavenward thank you' as he was coming off the mound after the 7th. He thought he was done. He said so later.

 

That part was obvious. Hard for a guy like him to get back into gear.

 

There is no excuse for Grady. None.