2020 Prospects

[mvp 78]

Baseball America just released their annual top 100 rankings.

 

Casas came in at 70.

 

Dalbec came in at 75.

 

That's it. If Mata and Ward have strong seasons, they should be on next year. A strong season from Casas could vault him into the top 25.

[Slasher9]

thanks Dave!

[moonslav59]

So, all those who expected a "quick rebuild of the farm" have what to say, now?

[mvp 78]

So, all those who expected a "quick rebuild of the farm" have what to say, now?

 

Who expected that?

[mvp 78]

They have 7 guys who have a realistic chance to be top 100 guys next year:

 

Casas

Mata

Groome

Jimenez

Dalbec

Duran

Ward

 

If they all made it, would that be Bloom turning things around?

[Slasher9]

They have 7 guys who have a realistic chance to be top 100 guys next year:

 

Casas

Mata

Groome

Jimenez

Dalbec

Duran

Ward

 

If they all made it, would that be Bloom turning things around?

 

yes.

DD would have traded them all by now. at least the 2 that cracked the top 100

[mvp 78]

Non roster invitees to ST:

 

Durran - Exciting prospect. Anyone think he could rise similar to Ellsbury in 07?

Mata - Not sure his pitching is quite there yet, but an outside chance he appears in 2020.

Houk - I think he winds up in BOS pitching out of the pen this year.

Baldwin - Sox have next to nothing for C prospects, so we're only seeing him because they need bodies. Rule V eligible next year.

Castillo - considering the salary limitations, he's stuck in PAW this year.

Marco - Most likely up and down this year, but will he reach his potential? He should have been the opening day 2b.

Joseph - Lots of pop and has MLB experience with PHI. Most likely just a fill in though.

Ockimey Chance at 1b platoon?

Hildenberger - He'll be in the BOS bullpen at some point this year. Experience in MINN.

Brian Johnson - The epitome of "meh"

Poyner - Bloom loves his LHP relievers.

McGrath - LHP starter who was lights out in Portland last year. Maybe a spot start or two, but has a ceiling of a #5.

Edited January 24, 2020 by mvp 78

[mvp 78]

@SPChrisHatfield

Only thing on here that surprised me is Baldwin. Missed basically all of 2019 with an injury. 53 games in Salem the year before. Now one of 4 catchers in camp despite below-average defense. Very strange imo.

[moonslav59]

Who expected that?

 

Several posters claimed, during the impending cliff debates, that somehow our farm would be rebuilt quickly and strongly.

 

Even recently, I can't remember who, someone was gushing over our talent evaluators and claiming we'd be a top farm team soon.

[moonslav59]

@SPChrisHatfield

Only thing on here that surprised me is Baldwin. Missed basically all of 2019 with an injury. 53 games in Salem the year before. Now one of 4 catchers in camp despite below-average defense. Very strange imo.

 

Do we have another, better (and ML ready) catcher in the system?

[moonslav59]

They have 7 guys who have a realistic chance to be top 100 guys next year:

 

Casas

Mata

Groome

Jimenez

Dalbec

Duran

Ward

 

If they all made it, would that be Bloom turning things around?

 

No. They are not Bloom acquisitions. If this happened, it would be a partial vindication on DD's rep. (Are any of these guys Ben dudes?)

 

I think Duran was over-hyped and helped by an unsustainably high BAbip, last year.

 

I really like Ward & Mata. Casas is the rave, but he's far away. Groome has to prove himself, soon. Dalbec has immediate hopes. I like him more than Chavis, but there are things he needs to work on. Jimenez is kind of unknown but has serious upside.

 

I've said it before. I think DD did better than I expected with the picks and restrictions we had on us over his term, but I expected us to be 28th to 30th ranked, so doing slightly better than that is not what we needed.

 

I don't blame DD for his picks, but his trades really hurt the farm. (I'm glad we won a ring and made it all worth it, but it's payback time, now.)

[mvp 78]

Several posters claimed, during the impending cliff debates, that somehow our farm would be rebuilt quickly and strongly.

 

Even recently, I can't remember who, someone was gushing over our talent evaluators and claiming we'd be a top farm team soon.

 

That's not me. I think the Sox can always be competitive no matter what their farm looks like due to Henry's bank account.

[mvp 78]

Do we have another, better (and ML ready) catcher in the system?

 

Depth chart on Sox Prospects:

 

C Christian Vazquez MLB

C Kevin Plawecki MLB

 

Nobody below is on the 40 man:

C Jett Bandy AAA not a prospect, just an older org guy

C Austin Rei AA below average offensively and defensively

C/3B Joe DeCarlo AA org depth, limited upside

C Charlie Madden AA org catcher, no bat

C/1B Kole Cottam A+ offensive minded catcher, may move off position at some point, can be used in emergency

C Roldani Baldwin A+ similar profile to Cottam, just rule V eligible sooner

 

Jaxx Groshans and Jonathan Diaz are the only other guys with much potential, but both only in Lowell last year.

[moonslav59]

That's not me. I think the Sox can always be competitive no matter what their farm looks like due to Henry's bank account.

 

Obviously not highly competitive, unless we max spending every year and never reset.

 

We need a farm to stay highly competitive for longer stretches.

[mvp 78]

No. They are not Bloom acquisitions. If this happened, it would be a partial vindication on DD's rep. (Are any of these guys Ben dudes?)

 

I think Duran was over-hyped and helped by an unsustainably high BAbip, last year.

 

I really like Ward & Mata. Casas is the rave, but he's far away. Groome has to prove himself, soon. Dalbec has immediate hopes. I like him more than Chavis, but there are things he needs to work on. Jimenez is kind of unknown but has serious upside.

 

I've said it before. I think DD did better than I expected with the picks and restrictions we had on us over his term, but I expected us to be 28th to 30th ranked, so doing slightly better than that is not what we needed.

 

I don't blame DD for his picks, but his trades really hurt the farm. (I'm glad we won a ring and made it all worth it, but it's payback time, now.)

 

Durran should always have a high BABIP due to his speed. If he starts to hit AA pitching, look out.

 

DD's trades brought us a ring. I'm happy with most of them. One could quibble about the Kimbrel trade and the Thornburg trade was a huge mistake.

[mvp 78]

Obviously not highly competitive, unless we max spending every year and never reset.

 

We need a farm to stay highly competitive for longer stretches.

 

As long as I've been a fan, the Sox prospect has more often been barren than full. It's not the greatest way to do business, but it can work for a while.

[moonslav59]

As long as I've been a fan, the Sox prospect has more often been barren than full. It's not the greatest way to do business, but it can work for a while.

 

Since 2003, there has been a strong relationship between having a strong farm stretch followed by ring seasons. For the decades beforehand, you are right.

[moonslav59]

Durran should always have a high BABIP due to his speed. If he starts to hit AA pitching, look out.

 

DD's trades brought us a ring. I'm happy with most of them. One could quibble about the Kimbrel trade and the Thornburg trade was a huge mistake.

 

I'm not sure speed was the only factor in his high BAbip, but your point is a good one.

 

That also begs the question: if he had good numbers last year based a lot on his speed, why should we expect/hope his hitting to improve as he moves up a level?

 

[mvp 78]

Since 2003, there has been a strong relationship between having a strong farm stretch followed by ring seasons. For the decades beforehand, you are right.

 

What is old is new again.

[moonslav59]

Rings during or shortly after having a strong farm...

 

Strong farm 2003-2007: Rings in 2004 and 2007

 

So-so farm 2008-2011: No rings

 

Strong farm 2012-2017: Rings in 2013 & 2018

 

Weak farm 2018-today: No rings

[mvp 78]

I'm not sure speed was the only factor in his high BAbip, but your point is a good one.

 

That also begs the question: if he had good numbers last year based a lot on his speed, why should we expect/hope his hitting to improve as he moves up a level?

 

 

Because almost every young player improves somewhat?

[mvp 78]

Rings during or shortly after having a strong farm...

 

Strong farm 2003-2007: Rings in 2004 and 2007

 

So-so farm 2008-2011: No rings

 

Strong farm 2012-2017: Rings in 2013 & 2018

 

Weak farm 2018-today: No rings

 

They did not win in 2004 because of their farm.

[mvp 78]

They did not win in 2004 because of their farm.

 

I'd contend that they didn't win in 2013 because of their farm either. Both were veteran led teams.

[moonslav59]

What is old is new again.

 

What's different, now, is that the system set up for building a farm is drastically different from decades past. That's one reason you see more and more teams desperately clinging to their best prospects.

 

No longer can a rich team draft "unsignable players" late in the first round, and then sign them.

 

No longer can a rich team strategically acquire players that will net them comp picks after they depart.

 

No longer can rich teams just outspend poorer teams on the International FA Market. (This one is huge.) No more Bogey, Devers, Moncada, Margot, Espinoza, D Hern and other key players on past ring teams or traded for studs used to win rings.

 

No longer is Henry willing to max out spending year-after-year.

 

The "old" can never be new again. Those days are gone for good.

[moonslav59]

I'd contend that they didn't win in 2013 because of their farm either. Both were veteran led teams.

 

Several of our vets came from our strong farm:

Lester 33 GS 3.75 ERA

Doubront 27 GS 4.32 ERA

Buch 1.74 ERA

Tazawa IFA

Peavy acquired by trading prospects

Ellsbury

Middy had 17 Hrs in 348 ABs

Nava went nutty in '13

Bogey was a key call-up

Iggy contributed

 

True, the bulk of the biggest players were FA signings, but we needed the players listed above to win it all, too.

[mvp 78]

The "old" can never be new again. Those days are gone for good.

 

Disagree entirely. The biggest change now is that prospects have become overvalued. I believe there is a prospect market that is going to burst. People can hoard all the prospects they want, but it's just a bunch of lottery tickets. Veteran players are known commodities.

[mvp 78]

but we needed the players listed above to win it all, too.

 

You could make the same argument for every WS team since the 1900's. They've all had farm contributions. That doesn't mean the current farm system is what won them the title as you suggested.

[moonslav59]

You could make the same argument for every WS team since the 1900's. They've all had farm contributions. That doesn't mean the current farm system is what won them the title as you suggested.

 

I get your point, and the 2013 season is not a shining example of strong previous farms leading to a ring, but the fact remains, we have no rings when the farm was weak for 2-3 year prior to the ring season. Every ring we have in my lifetime was won during or one year after we had a very strong farm.

[mvp 78]

Depth chart on Sox Prospects:

 

C Christian Vazquez MLB

C Kevin Plawecki MLB

 

Nobody below is on the 40 man:

C Jett Bandy AAA not a prospect, just an older org guy

C Austin Rei AA below average offensively and defensively

C/3B Joe DeCarlo AA org depth, limited upside

C Charlie Madden AA org catcher, no bat

C/1B Kole Cottam A+ offensive minded catcher, may move off position at some point, can be used in emergency

C Roldani Baldwin A+ similar profile to Cottam, just rule V eligible sooner

 

Jaxx Groshans and Jonathan Diaz are the only other guys with much potential, but both only in Lowell last year.

 

Sox Prospects hadn't updated for Juan Centeno re-signing yesterday. He's the MiLB guy that could be used as an emergency C and played in a few Sox games last year where nobody was paying attention.

[moonslav59]

Disagree entirely. The biggest change now is that prospects have become overvalued. I believe there is a prospect market that is going to burst. People can hoard all the prospects they want, but it's just a bunch of lottery tickets. Veteran players are known commodities.

 

They cost too much.

 

Teams know they need some low cost studs, and a bunch of lottery tickets has a better chance than no tickets at creating some cheap stars.

 

I'm not downplaying the importance of FAs and spending to fill gaps, but the 2004, 2007 and 2018 championships were built almost entirely from the farm of by trading top farm pieces for studs.

 

Yes, JD Martinez, Vic, Lackey and Manny were essential, but without strong farms, we have zero rings in my lifetime.

 

We sucked for decades. The same decades are farm sucked.

 

We came close only when we had guys like Rice, Lynn, Evans and Fisk in the 70's and Clemens, Boggs and other later on.