Astros vs, Nationals Game #3

[moonslav59]

It's all a random crapshoot.

[Maxbialystock]

It's all a random crapshoot.

 

Heartily disagree even though the playoff teams winning percentages for the regular season suggest that statistically no team should be considered a lock to win three straight series at this level.

 

Even though the Yankees had the best offense, I think the Astros, going in, were the only playoff team with solid pitching and hitting. Even the Astros, however, needed that 5th game to win the ALDS over the Rays, a wild card, just as the Dodgers needed that 5th game to eliminate the Nats, who actually won the 5th game before sweeping the Cards.

 

The Nats have had pretty decent hitting this year, but I think lately their real strength is their starting pitching. Unfortunately, and unlike the Astros, they don't have much of a bullpen. Still, the Nats took the first two from the Astros on the strength of two good starts by Sherzer and Strasburg. And for some reason--here's your random crapshoot coming in to play--the Astros got two lousy starts by the estimable Cole and Verlander.

 

Back to my basic point: going in, it was obvious to me that the best overall team, the strongest, was the Astros, and right now they are in the WS and tied in games 2-2. That, I would argue again vehemently, is not random.

[Bellhorn04]

Heartily disagree even though the playoff teams winning percentages for the regular season suggest that statistically no team should be considered a lock to win three straight series at this level.

 

Even though the Yankees had the best offense, I think the Astros, going in, were the only playoff team with solid pitching and hitting. Even the Astros, however, needed that 5th game to win the ALDS over the Rays, a wild card, just as the Dodgers needed that 5th game to eliminate the Nats, who actually won the 5th game before sweeping the Cards.

 

The Nats have had pretty decent hitting this year, but I think lately their real strength is their starting pitching. Unfortunately, and unlike the Astros, they don't have much of a bullpen. Still, the Nats took the first two from the Astros on the strength of two good starts by Sherzer and Strasburg. And for some reason--here's your random crapshoot coming in to play--the Astros got two lousy starts by the estimable Cole and Verlander.

 

Back to my basic point: going in, it was obvious to me that the best overall team, the strongest, was the Astros, and right now they are in the WS and tied in games 2-2. That, I would argue again vehemently, is not random.

 

1) moon's statement was sarcasm.

2) Please see this thread I started on the topic.

 

https://www.talksox.com/forum/threads/19588-Are-the-playoffs-really-a-crapshoot

[TylerD]

It's all a random crapshoot.

 

Honestly it is. I think the Red Sox could have beat Minnesota and maybe even Houston and Tampa. Probably would have been killed by the Yankees though. Then again I’m a homer so I dunno lol. I’m biased.

[moonslav59]

Honestly it is. I think the Red Sox could have beat Minnesota and maybe even Houston and Tampa. Probably would have been killed by the Yankees though. Then again I’m a homer so I dunno lol. I’m biased.

 

No, honestly, it isn't.

 

Yes, any team can beat any other team, and baseball is more random than other sports, but in 5 or 7 game series, the better teams win way more often than random flipping of coins.

[moonslav59]

1) moon's statement was sarcasm.

2) Please see this thread I started on the topic.

 

https://www.talksox.com/forum/threads/19588-Are-the-playoffs-really-a-crapshoot

 

Yes, it was pure sarcasm. Maybe Max had not read my previous posts on the matter.

 

Can someone give me all the examples where the worst team to make the playoffs winning it all?

 

One might argue the 2006 Cardinals, but that's all I see in over 2 decades.

 

If you only count the WC play-in game winners, there are 8 teams in the playoffs. Randomness would dictate every team has close to a 1 in 8 chance of winning.

The fact is, the top 4 teams have won about 75% of the last 16 WS. If it was random, they'd have won about 50%.

 

Better teams win more often. Long series weed out the worse teams.

 

I'm still kind of amazed that some here are arguing the better teams don't win more often.

[Maxbialystock]

1) moon's statement was sarcasm.

2) Please see this thread I started on the topic.

 

https://www.talksox.com/forum/threads/19588-Are-the-playoffs-really-a-crapshoot

 

Obviously, I didn’t read the other moonslav posts.

[TylerD]

No, honestly, it isn't.

 

Yes, any team can beat any other team, and baseball is more random than other sports, but in 5 or 7 game series, the better teams win way more often than random flipping of coins.

Not this year. Atlanta lost to the cards. Dodgers lost to the Nationals. Contrary to what people are saying not many predicted Washington beating the Dodgers.

[TylerD]

Astros gonna win this series

[moonslav59]

Not this year. Atlanta lost to the cards. Dodgers lost to the Nationals. Contrary to what people are saying not many predicted Washington beating the Dodgers.

 

That does not prove randomness.

 

Even if you go by each head-to-head series, here's what it looks like:

 

Nat> Mil check

Rays> Oak (1 win difference, but Rays had higher total WAR)

STL>Atl (6 wins less but had a better 2nd half record 47-27 to 43-28)

WAS> LAD (13 wins less but was one of the best 2nd half team)

NYY> MN check

HOU> TBR check

WAS>STL check

HOU>NYY check

 

So far, 5 faves have won, and 3 did not, but one could call the TB-Oak play-in game as an even game.

 

If you don't count the one game play-in game, which is certainly more "random" than a 5 or 7 game series, the record is Faves 4- Underdogs 2.

 

It's still not random.

 

2nd half records:

50-22 HOU

47-27 STL

46-26 NYM did not make playoffs

46-24 LAD

46-27 WAS

46-24 OAK

45-28 MN

44-27 TB

43-21 CLE no playoffs

43-28 ATL

42-29 MIL

 

I'm not trying to move the goal posts with this second half stuff. I mentioned season W-L records may not be the best way to determine who were the best teams each year and then show if the best teams win, but to me it it pretty obvious the better teams win more often.

 

I still have yet to see any clear evidence to show it's 50-50. I'm open to change my mind, but give me something. Overall WAR totals and playoff records? Second half records vs PO wins. Last 30 game records vs PO wins.

 

Does anyone really believe the better team doesn't have a better chance at winning a 5 or 7 game series? You gotta show me more than 2 or 3 upsets out of 8 match-ups this year. If anything that should be used as evidence it is NOT random.

 

[TylerD]

That does not prove randomness.

 

Even if you go by each head-to-head series, here's what it looks like:

 

Nat> Mil check

Rays> Oak (1 win difference, but Rays had higher total WAR)

STL>Atl (6 wins less but had a better 2nd half record 47-27 to 43-28)

WAS> LAD (13 wins less but was one of the best 2nd half team)

NYY> MN check

HOU> TBR check

WAS>STL check

HOU>NYY check

 

So far, 5 faves have won, and 3 did not, but one could call the TB-Oak play-in game as an even game.

 

If you don't count the one game play-in game, which is certainly more "random" than a 5 or 7 game series, the record is Faves 4- Underdogs 2.

 

It's still not random.

 

2nd half records:

50-22 HOU

47-27 STL

46-26 NYM did not make playoffs

46-24 LAD

46-27 WAS

46-24 OAK

45-28 MN

44-27 TB

43-21 CLE no playoffs

43-28 ATL

42-29 MIL

 

I'm not trying to move the goal posts with this second half stuff. I mentioned season W-L records may not be the best way to determine who were the best teams each year and then show if the best teams win, but to me it it pretty obvious the better teams win more often.

 

I still have yet to see any clear evidence to show it's 50-50. I'm open to change my mind, but give me something. Overall WAR totals and playoff records? Second half records vs PO wins. Last 30 game records vs PO wins.

 

Does anyone really believe the better team doesn't have a better chance at winning a 5 or 7 game series? You gotta show me more than 2 or 3 upsets out of 8 match-ups this year. If anything that should be used as evidence it is NOT random.

 

Yes I do. Upsets happen a lot more in baseball. Far and few between I get it. I don’t need stats. As I hAve said before it just doesn’t surprise me in baseball anymore when upsets happen. Once the post season hits I almost expect anyone to beat anyone. Yes there are circumstances like I expected the Yankees to Minnesota as they crushed them all regular season. And it wasn’t even close. BUT had Minnesota won I wouldn’t be sitting here as stunned as say when the giants beat the patriots in the 07 super bowl.

[moonslav59]

Yes I do. Upsets happen a lot more in baseball. Far and few between I get it. I don’t need stats. As I hAve said before it just doesn’t surprise me in baseball anymore when upsets happen. Once the post season hits I almost expect anyone to beat anyone. Yes there are circumstances like I expected the Yankees to Minnesota as they crushed them all regular season. And it wasn’t even close. BUT had Minnesota won I wouldn’t be sitting here as stunned as say when the giants beat the patriots in the 07 super bowl.

 

I've never said there are no upsets in baseball or that there are less than other sports, but it is not random.

 

Better teams win more often. It's not 50-50. Yes, it's closer to 50% than 100%, but it is far from totally random. FAR!

[TylerD]

I've never said there are no upsets in baseball or that there are less than other sports, but it is not random.

 

Better teams win more often. It's not 50-50. Yes, it's closer to 50% than 100%, but it is far from totally random. FAR!

Nope. Red Sox would have beat anyone had they got in. Astros didn’t impress me at all. Just now their offence is getting it together. They’re lucky they made it past Tampa.

[Jasonbay44]

Well, looks like Astros are going to win this series. Gerrit Cole is really good.

 

Also, a lot of weird stuff happening at the game. Two instagram models flashed their boobs during the game and it was seen on national TV, the umpires were ridiculously bad and the home plate umpire was caught telling the Nats catcher he didnt call the pitch a strike because the catcher "assumed" it would be called a strike, and of course all the Donald Trump ********. What a weird night.

[Slasher9]

Yes, it was pure sarcasm. Maybe Max had not read my previous posts on the matter.

 

Can someone give me all the examples where the worst team to make the playoffs winning it all?

 

One might argue the 2006 Cardinals, but that's all I see in over 2 decades.

 

 

until there is a 100% balanced schedule and robot umps it will be impossible to dictate who is the worst team.

me? i'll take the team with the better pitching in the postseason. everytime.

these are the earned runs the Starting Pitcher of the winning team has given up thus far in this years World Series:

Game1: 2

Game2: 2

Game3: 1

Game4: 0

Game5: 1

[Bellhorn04]

Nope. Red Sox would have beat anyone had they got in. Astros didn’t impress me at all. Just now their offence is getting it together. They’re lucky they made it past Tampa.

 

Tampa gave them a tough series, because Tampa is a good team.

 

But the Astros beat them 6-1 in the deciding game.

 

Not luck.

[Slasher9]

Well, looks like Astros are going to win this series. Gerrit Cole is really good.

 

Also, a lot of weird stuff happening at the game. Two instagram models flashed their boobs during the game and it was seen on national TV, the umpires were ridiculously bad and the home plate umpire was caught telling the Nats catcher he didnt call the pitch a strike because the catcher "assumed" it would be called a strike, and of course all the Donald Trump ********. What a weird night.

 

dang, i just saw the video of them birds flashing. epic.

[TylerD]

Well, looks like Astros are going to win this series. Gerrit Cole is really good.

 

Also, a lot of weird stuff happening at the game. Two instagram models flashed their boobs during the game and it was seen on national TV, the umpires were ridiculously bad and the home plate umpire was caught telling the Nats catcher he didnt call the pitch a strike because the catcher "assumed" it would be called a strike, and of course all the Donald Trump ********. What a weird night.

Yup looking that way. Nats has their fun and made it a hell of a season but Houston is looking too strong now.

[moonslav59]

Yup looking that way. Nats has their fun and made it a hell of a season but Houston is looking too strong now.

 

Are you now saying it's not random?

[TylerD]

Are you now saying it's not random?

 

Me predicting the Astros to win doesn't mean I don't think it's random. Having a prediction of a winner is totally irrelevant to what I said. Same with me saying I think the Pats will beat the Ravens in the playoffs. Me saying it's totally random doesn't mean I can't have a prediction of who wins the series. Before this series started I thought it would be totally random who won. Nats were on fire and won the first 2, now Houston has won 3 straight and it's looking like they will take it. I know you don't agree with me with the random thing, and that's fine..... Let's let it go.

[Kimmi]

It's kind of random that the away team has won every game in the series so far.

[Bellhorn04]

It's kind of random that the away team has won every game in the series so far.

 

Yes, that has been solidly random.