Mookie Betts: Trade or Extend

[S5Dewey]

apples and oranges

 

Don't you ever get tired of trolling this site?

[jacksonianmarch]

Don't you ever get tired of trolling this site?

 

Not trolling, why don't you respond to the actual post.

[moonslav59]

apples and oranges

 

Why? Betts was younger, and still is, than some who had their first and second 9 or 10+ WAR years.

 

I get your point about his body types not aging well, but he's still just at the start of his peak prime years. He can easily have another 9 or 10+ season.

 

The list of those who have done it once is shorter than those who have done it twice or more:

 

2+

Ruth

Gehrig

Bonds (don't count him, if you wish)

Williams

Hornsby

Mantle

Foxx (I counted 9.9)

Musial (I counted 9.9)

Mays

Ripken (had 2 plus a 9.8)

Trout

 

1 only

Yaz (also had a 9.3 in 1068- the year of the pitcher)

Morgan (also had a 9.5)

Boudreau

Betts (still in prime)

R Henderson (also had a 9.7)

Norm Cash

Posey

ARod (also had a 9.6 & 9.2)

Edited September 16, 2019 by moonslav59

[jacksonianmarch]

I think he’s got another few 8 WAR seasons in him. I do. But to get to 10, he has to hit .370 again on balls in play plus see a spike in power again. Plus steal more bases. Plus be a major contributor on defense. Eventually, the smaller guys break down. Eventually, speed slows down. And his speed is what separates him from an 8 WAR player. His ability to steal bases and play GG defense in the OF is directly tied to his speed. Speed fades the fastest. Hence, he’s got maybe another 4 years to have another 10 WAR season. What are the chances in the next four years he loses no steps in the speed game, muscles up and drills 30+ bombs again and has a .370 BABIP again? Pretty damn low. That’s all I’m saying. He is a perennial 25-25 guy with almost an automatic .290-.300 BA. He’s a great, great player.

 

I also have touted the size as a big issue long term. Small guys fall off cliffs. They don’t age well. It’s because they cannot rely on their frames to be great, it’s all quick twitch movement that makes them great and that goes quickly. If I’m the sox GM and I look around at the league then I look at my squad, I deal him as soon as the league year restarts 5 days after the WS ends. I also don’t re-sign him after he hits the market. Remember his five years in boston fondly but don’t pay for past performance and don’t pay for a small player into his late 30s

[moonslav59]

I think he’s got another few 8 WAR seasons in him. I do. But to get to 10, he has to hit .370 again on balls in play plus see a spike in power again. Plus steal more bases. Plus be a major contributor on defense. Eventually, the smaller guys break down. Eventually, speed slows down. And his speed is what separates him from an 8 WAR player. His ability to steal bases and play GG defense in the OF is directly tied to his speed. Speed fades the fastest. Hence, he’s got maybe another 4 years to have another 10 WAR season. What are the chances in the next four years he loses no steps in the speed game, muscles up and drills 30+ bombs again and has a .370 BABIP again? Pretty damn low. That’s all I’m saying. He is a perennial 25-25 guy with almost an automatic .290-.300 BA. He’s a great, great player.

 

I also have touted the size as a big issue long term. Small guys fall off cliffs. They don’t age well. It’s because they cannot rely on their frames to be great, it’s all quick twitch movement that makes them great and that goes quickly. If I’m the sox GM and I look around at the league then I look at my squad, I deal him as soon as the league year restarts 5 days after the WS ends. I also don’t re-sign him after he hits the market. Remember his five years in boston fondly but don’t pay for past performance and don’t pay for a small player into his late 30s

 

Eventually, but not at ages 28-29. Many improve in those years. Many, even his body types have their best seasons between 28-30.

 

He turns 27 very soon. You need more than guys with his body type breaking down at age 27.

 

How about guys with his "twitch times?" (There are none.)

 

The other thing you're missing is that he had his 10+ WAR season playing only 136 games. He could reach 10.0 by playing worse or having a less than .370 BAbip, but for 156 games, instead.

[moonslav59]

I think he’s got another few 8 WAR seasons in him. I do. But to get to 10, he has to hit .370 again on balls in play plus see a spike in power again. Plus steal more bases. Plus be a major contributor on defense. Eventually, the smaller guys break down. Eventually, speed slows down. And his speed is what separates him from an 8 WAR player. His ability to steal bases and play GG defense in the OF is directly tied to his speed. Speed fades the fastest. Hence, he’s got maybe another 4 years to have another 10 WAR season. What are the chances in the next four years he loses no steps in the speed game, muscles up and drills 30+ bombs again and has a .370 BABIP again? Pretty damn low. That’s all I’m saying. He is a perennial 25-25 guy with almost an automatic .290-.300 BA. He’s a great, great player.

 

I also have touted the size as a big issue long term. Small guys fall off cliffs. They don’t age well. It’s because they cannot rely on their frames to be great, it’s all quick twitch movement that makes them great and that goes quickly. If I’m the sox GM and I look around at the league then I look at my squad, I deal him as soon as the league year restarts 5 days after the WS ends. I also don’t re-sign him after he hits the market. Remember his five years in boston fondly but don’t pay for past performance and don’t pay for a small player into his late 30s

 

He's also hit 30 HRs more than once and may get to 30 this year, too. The power was not that big of a fluke, and with the state of MLB, these days, he may hit 40 next year.

 

Plus, bWAR has him as having 9.7 and 10.9 seasons, so he's already almost done it already.

 

This year, he has had his second best OBP of his career and may end up with his second best SLG. It's a dip from 2018, but I wouldn't say it shows a trend of dropping off a cliff. His BAbip is way less than 2018, but he has a higher LD% and a lower soft hit% than 2018, so maybe with a little more luck...

Edited September 16, 2019 by moonslav59

[dgalehouse]

It doesn't matter how many 8 WAR seasons Betts has in him . He is the best player on the Sox , one of the very best in the game . A keeper if there ever was one . You don't let a guy like that get away .

[moonslav59]

It doesn't matter how many 8 WAR seasons Betts has in him . He is the best player on the Sox , one of the very best in the game . A keeper if there ever was one . You don't let a guy like that get away .

 

I agree, and although there is some truth to body type & aging theories, there are plenty of players his size that had some great late careers.

 

These numbers seem to indicate he's trending better not worse:

 

LD%:

16.8% in 2017

21.2% in 2018

24.0% in 2019

 

Soft Hit%

18.2% in '17

12.2% in '18

11.6% in '19

 

I'm not sure why his UZR/150 dropped:

20.9 in '16

19.0 in '15

21.0 in '18

12.8 in '19

 

and if this continues, it may be very hard to reach a 9 or 10 WAR again, but I've know some players who improve on defense as they age. It wouldn't surprise me to see him back neat 20 over the next few years.

 

He's averaged an 8.4 bWAR (7.6 FWAR) over the last 4 years.

Edited September 16, 2019 by moonslav59

[jacksonianmarch]

Remember, 8WAR players are MVP level players not named Mike Trout. It’s not like I’m damning him with faint praise here. He’s an elite player.

 

And yes, he’ll be 27 next year. He hits FA as a 28 yr old. He’s gonna get a 10 year deal. He’ll be worth the money in years 1-4 or 5. He’ll be worth well less the final 5

[S5Dewey]

Not trolling, why don't you respond to the actual post.

 

Because I don't respond to trolls.

[Bellhorn04]

Trout needs foot surgery and is done for the year.

 

I certainly hope it's nothing that hampers him in the future.

 

But it's another quick reminder of the massive risk in long term big money deals.

 

And now Mookie has a foot problem.

[notin]

Trout needs foot surgery and is done for the year.

 

I certainly hope it's nothing that hampers him in the future.

 

But it's another quick reminder of the massive risk in long term big money deals.

 

Whiule true, shutting him down might also have been influenced by the already-delivered verdict on the Angels' season...

[moonslav59]

And now Mookie has a foot problem.

 

It's all that extra weight on his body type.

[Slasher9]

It doesn't matter how many 8 WAR seasons Betts has in him . He is the best player on the Sox , one of the very best in the game . A keeper if there ever was one . You don't let a guy like that get away .

 

so what are you offering Mookie Betts to get him to stay long term?

what is your offer?

[moonslav59]

so what are you offering Mookie Betts to get him to stay long term?

what is your offer?

 

I'd go $300M/10- maybe a little more, if we can lower the AVV- like $320M/12.

[S5Dewey]

I'd go $300M/10- maybe a little more, if we can lower the AVV- like $320M/12.

 

Let me first say that I'd support something like this, but it sure would be great if Betts would recognize the "insurance" aspect to a long term contract and be thinking about a slight discount in exchange for it.

 

I also supported Pedey's contract - and I still do. IMO he took that discount in exchange for the "insurance" and now he's collecting on it. He was worth what he was getting paid and more while he was playing so it evens out in the end.

[Slasher9]

I'd go $300M/10- maybe a little more, if we can lower the AVV- like $320M/12.

 

yup. i'm familiar with your position on this. it was directed towards Gale who always expects JH to spend top dollar on every position so i am wondering how much of his money/years he is willing to offer Betts. with the BP and SP upgrades that Gale is always demanding i am wondering what he envisions for annual payroll for the team. i believe if we add up all his demands/expectations for our major league team it would be close to a $400MM payroll.

[moonslav59]

Let me first say that I'd support something like this, but it sure would be great if Betts would recognize the "insurance" aspect to a long term contract and be thinking about a slight discount in exchange for it.

 

I also supported Pedey's contract - and I still do. IMO he took that discount in exchange for the "insurance" and now he's collecting on it. He was worth what he was getting paid and more while he was playing so it evens out in the end.

 

I'm not sure anyone else will offer him 10-12 years, and I know the risk of these long term deals, but going longer than anyone else may help us keep him and lower the AVV.

[S5Dewey]

yup. i'm familiar with your position on this. it was directed towards Gale who always expects JH to spend top dollar on every position so i am wondering how much of his money/years he is willing to offer Betts. with the BP and SP upgrades that Gale is always demanding i am wondering what he envisions for annual payroll for the team. i believe if we add up all his demands/expectations for our major league team it would be close to a $400MM payroll.

 

I'm not sure what Gale's long term strategy is but here's mine:

 

1) Patch up that pitching staff by letting Porcillo go, getting an innings-eating #3 to take his place.

2) Encourage JDM to stick around another year by pointing out how good this team can be with solid pitching. We're talking about the potential for another ring here.

3) Let JBJ go to arbitration and pay him.

4) Sign another respectable 'pen arm to as short a contract as possible.

5) Pay or trade Pearce and fill his spot from our minors.

6) Call it a day and prepare to reset after the 2020 season. If we're not prepared to make another run until 2025 rather than in 2024, so be it. It's worth the risk.

[Slasher9]

I'm not sure what Gale's long term strategy is but here's mine:

 

1) Patch up that pitching staff by letting Porcillo go, getting an innings-eating #3 to take his place.

2) Encourage JDM to stick around another year by pointing out how good this team can be with solid pitching. We're talking about the potential for another ring here.

3) Let JBJ go to arbitration and pay him.

4) Sign another respectable 'pen arm to as short a contract as possible.

5) Pay or trade Pearce and fill his spot from our minors.

6) Call it a day and prepare to reset after the 2020 season. If we're not prepared to make another run until 2025 rather than in 2024, so be it. It's worth the risk.

 

if we are not resetting this offseason i agree with all your points. 100%.

i *think* JH is going to reset though. but he has proven me wrong before.....

[notin]

I'm not sure what Gale's long term strategy is but here's mine:

 

1) Patch up that pitching staff by letting Porcillo go, getting an innings-eating #3 to take his place.

 

True. Somehow, they will need to replace Porcello. But that will be tricky as the restr of this scenario plays out since you don't advocate a reset. But you still really won't get a worthwhile SP - even an innings eater - for a 1 year deal unless that pitcher is about the same level of crapshoot as Porcello. Might as well just offer Rick a QO.

 

 

2) Encourage JDM to stick around another year by pointing out how good this team can be with solid pitching. We're talking about the potential for another ring here.

 

Martinez makes about $23mill in 2020, and then it drops to about $19mill the last two seasons. He will opt out after 2020, if he ever does, due to that salary drop.

 

3) Let JBJ go to arbitration and pay him.

 

Love JBJ, but that part of the plan along with step 6 does ensure a really dry spell.

 

4) Sign another respectable 'pen arm to as short a contract as possible.

 

I expect this. Or a trade for a displaced reliever (Blake Treinen?)

 

5) Pay or trade Pearce and fill his spot from our minors.

 

Pearce is a free agent. Just let him walk

 

 

6) Call it a day and prepare to reset after the 2020 season. If we're not prepared to make another run until 2025 rather than in 2024, so be it. It's worth the risk.

 

Bad move. Resetting after 2020 guarantees the Sox lose both Bradley and Betts. And Martinez will likely opt out for reasons unrelated to losing those two. The Sox will be left with Bogaerts, Devers, Benintendi and hope that Price, Sale, Eovaldi can all pitch. No help from below and obviously none coming in via free agency. Everyone always says "this one last title will be worth it," but no one means it. I didn't see anyone saying "But we still have 2013" as the Sox stumbled across the finish line in last place for the second consecutive season in 2015.

 

If the Sox plan to reset, the best idea is to do it before Betts can reach free agency. Bradley is likely gone after 2020 and Martinez is a good bet as well. But if the Sox reset, they can at least afford to get a replacement...

[jacksonianmarch]

If you wait to rebuild until after 2020, you’ll lose your best chance to restock your farm by dealing Betts and dealing ERod with two years of control left

[moonslav59]

I'm not sure what Gale's long term strategy is but here's mine:

 

1) Patch up that pitching staff by letting Porcillo go, getting an innings-eating #3 to take his place.

2) Encourage JDM to stick around another year by pointing out how good this team can be with solid pitching. We're talking about the potential for another ring here.

3) Let JBJ go to arbitration and pay him.

4) Sign another respectable 'pen arm to as short a contract as possible.

5) Pay or trade Pearce and fill his spot from our minors.

6) Call it a day and prepare to reset after the 2020 season. If we're not prepared to make another run until 2025 rather than in 2024, so be it. It's worth the risk.

 

This plan will likely put us over the $40M line, assuming we get a decent SP'er, RP'r and pay JBJ $10-11M. Maybe we can stay just under to avoid the penalties in the draft slots.

[moonslav59]

If you wait to rebuild until after 2020, you’ll lose your best chance to restock your farm by dealing Betts and dealing ERod with two years of control left

 

...and Workman and Barnes.

[dgalehouse]

yup. i'm familiar with your position on this. it was directed towards Gale who always expects JH to spend top dollar on every position so i am wondering how much of his money/years he is willing to offer Betts. with the BP and SP upgrades that Gale is always demanding i am wondering what he envisions for annual payroll for the team. i believe if we add up all his demands/expectations for our major league team it would be close to a $400MM payroll.

 

I am pretty careful how I spend my money . However , I have no problem whatsoever spending John Henry ' s money and spending it freely . The guy is loaded . He rakes it in from the Sox , Fenway , NESN and everything else he's got going .He charges us plenty for tickets , etc . The so called luxury tax wasn't my idea . It was his and the rest of the lords of baseball . Mookie Betts is a true franchise player . I don't really know what it would take to sign him , but I think Henry should be willing to match any offer . He can well afford it . If he would rather save the cash , that's his business . But the team and the fans will suffer for it .

[notin]

I am pretty careful how I spend my money . ]However , I have no problem whatsoever spending John Henry ' s money and spending it freely . The guy is loaded . He rakes it in from the Sox , Fenway , NESN and everything else he's got going .He charges us plenty for tickets , etc . The so called luxury tax wasn't my idea . It was his and the rest of the lords of baseball . Mookie Betts is a true franchise player . I don't really know what it would take to sign him , but I think Henry should be willing to match any offer . He can well afford it . If he would rather save the cash , that's his business . But the team and the fans will suffer for it .

 

That was also Dombrowski's attitude, and it contributed - possibly heavily - to his getting fired...

[dgalehouse]

That was also Dombrowski's attitude, and it contributed - possibly heavily - to his getting fired...

 

Possibly . I / we don't really know . Henry could have avoided the speculation by explaining his reasons . Anyway , I don't see where signing Betts would spell financial ruin . The difference between what he is being paid now and what it would take to keep him would probably be more than made up by losing Porcello alone . I don't think it is the back breaker that some make it out to be .

[S5Dewey]

That was also Dombrowski's attitude, and it contributed - possibly heavily - to his getting fired...

 

It will be interesting to see what JH's attitude is toward spending now that the Sox aren't making the PO's. There's a lot of money to be made in playoff baseball.

 

My best guess is that there are bean counters (nothing personal, Bell. ) hired by JH who can tell him exactly how much money is there. Then he'll make his decision about spending past the limit accordingly.

Whatever happens it'll give us some insight as to the difference in income between making the PO's and not making them.

[Slasher9]

but I think Henry should be willing to match any offer . He can well afford it .

 

so you would be OK with the Red Sox signing Mookie to a 12 year / $438MM contract?

[jacksonianmarch]

...and Workman and Barnes.

 

I'd deal Workman in November. No way you hang onto him if you're rebuilding. He is almost a FA and no way he replicates this year. Barnes I hold onto. I put him in a middle relief role, never escalate him to closer, rarely throw him back to back days and hope he puts up 2018 level numbers. Then I move him at the deadline