A Realistic View at 2020: Part I

[moonslav59]

One year for JBJ. Let him go to arb if necessary but keep him around until the Mookie issue gets settled one way or the other.

 

My "insurance" argument is that we should make every effort to keep at least one of those guys in the outfield into 2021.

 

During 2020 one of two things will happen. Either 1) JBJ will become the hitter we want him to be, or 2) He'll be the hitter we've always seen. At that point we'll have a good idea of his value to the team. That value will be higher to the team if Mookie is no longer with us, because of JBJ's defensive ability and it'll be lower if Mookie is still with the team. If he becomes the hitter we want him to be his value will be higher and we can either keep him or move him with a lot higher trade value. If it's lower he can then be non-tendered if necessary.

 

I say bite the bullet for 2020 and make another run at it, then reorganize for 2021. We shouldn't lose sight of the fact that the ONLY reason this team isn't looking at 100+ wins this year is because of the pitching staff. Changing the defense of the team solves a problem that doesn't exist.

 

Even if JBJ hit .800 in 2020, there's no way I feel secure that is the JBJ for 2021 and beyond. There's no "non tender" after 2020. He'll be a FA just like Betts. He won't get a QO like Betts. He's not worth $10M. He's not the only top defensive CF'er available this winter.

 

Even if we bite the bullet and go for one more shot at a ring, I doubt we go over the max line. I still think it makes sense to not pay JBJ $10+M. We'll still be up against the max line without JBJ and will need money to build up the pen and 1B or 2B. I say just get a cheaper but still great defensive CF'er and build up the pen & 5th starter slot.

 

Also, we can always sign JBJ as a FA (after we trade him this winter) for 2021, if we lose Betts. Or, sign some other defensive CF'er.

 

I'm a huge JBJ fan, but he's not the only great defensive CF'er in MLB. He's also getting older and seems to be on the down swing curve.

[OH FOY]

The way I look at it is this, if you want to sign High Priced FA's, fine, but Owner has to go all in, and not cry later, he will pay Luxury Tax.

You invest, sometimes you have to invest more, for the results needed.

[OH FOY]

Even if JBJ hit .800 in 2020, there's no way I feel secure that is the JBJ for 2021 and beyond. There's no "non tender" after 2020. He'll be a FA just like Betts. He won't get a QO like Betts. He's not worth $10M. He's not the only top defensive CF'er available this winter.

 

Even if we bite the bullet and go for one more shot at a ring, I doubt we go over the max line. I still think it makes sense to not pay JBJ $10+M. We'll still be up against the max line without JBJ and will need money to build up the pen and 1B or 2B. I say just get a cheaper but still great defensive CF'er and build up the pen & 5th starter slot.

 

Also, we can always sign JBJ as a FA (after we trade him this winter) for 2021, if we lose Betts. Or, sign some other defensive CF'er.

 

I'm a huge JBJ fan, but he's not the only great defensive CF'er in MLB. He's also getting older and seems to be on the down swing curve.

 

Little money. 10 million is squat, when your paying Price 31 million. That's how I see it.

Edited August 24, 2019 by OH FOY!

[moonslav59]

Here's where we stand right now, for Payroll, in 2020.

https://www.spotrac.com/mlb/boston-red-sox/payroll/2020/

 

Says we have 56,666,667 in Cap Space. Tough to keep it under Luxury Tax. Just Betts alone will be over 20 million.

Just want to point out Rusney is not on the Luxury Tax Cap.

 

We can reset by trading JBJ and not signing any FA to more than $2M a year. Keep just about all the arb players, including Betts.

 

We can easily reset by trading Betts & JBJ. We could even sign a couple FAs that could be part of the future plan, and stay under the first tax line. Reset and go larger in 2021.

 

I want to keep Betts, but I trust the Sox to know his true value and offer him that or a little more. It's the one area the Sox have always been very good at.

[Fan_since_Boggs]

Little money. 10 million is squat, when your paying Price 31 million. That's how I see it.

 

True but 10m goes a long way when you are trying to improve your bullpen. For example, 10m, plus a little more (most likely), will secure a closer like W.Smith. Would we rather have Bradley Jr. or a quality closer? I'll take the closer.

 

I also think Duran is ready to be a ninth hitter next year at the major league level. I've heard all of the arguments against Duran, but my immediate expectations are low--I see Duran as a ninth hitter. The Red Sox should get quality defense from Duran in CF and small ball tendencies--a singles hitter who can steal bases with his blazing speed. And Duran should continue to get better over the next few years in terms of line drive production (doubles rather than singles) and patience at the plate. The Red Sox offense can carry a ninth hitter as Duran continues to develop.

Edited August 24, 2019 by Fan_since_Boggs

[moonslav59]

Little money. 10 million is squat, when your paying Price 31 million. That's how I see it.

 

$10M would have gotten us Ottavino.

 

It's not squat.

 

"Going all out" likely means still staying under the max line. That means the budget is limited and we have to pick and choose where to spend.

 

Do you really think a year older JBJ is worth $10M?

 

Spending large is one of the reasons we won a ring, yes, but it's also part of the reason we are at or near the breaking point.

[moonslav59]

True but 10m goes a long way when you are trying to improve your bullpen. For example, 10m, plus a little more (most likely), will secure a closer like W.Smith. Would we rather have Bradley Jr. or a quality closer? I'll take the closer.

 

I also think Duran is ready to be a ninth hitter next year at the major league level. I've heard all of the arguments against Duran, but my immediate expectations are low--I see Duran as a ninth hitter. The Red Sox should get quality defense from Duran in CF and small ball tendencies--a singles hitter who can steal bases with his blazing speed. And Duran should continue to get better over the next few years in terms of line drive production (doubles rather than singles) and patience at the plate. The Red Sox offense can carry a ninth hitter as Duran continues to develop.

 

I'm not sold on Duran being ready by next year (or ever), so I'd rather spend $1-3M on a known great defensive CF'er. That would save $7-10M by trading or non tendering JBJ.

 

I like the chances of our system depth at 1B and 2B over the OF.

 

1B: Chavis, Travis, Dalbec, Ockimey (JD?)

2B: Chavis, Marco, Lin, Chatham

OF: Duran and nobody

 

I like all of the guys listed at 1B and 2B over Duran, in terms of 2020 only.

[S5Dewey]

OK, maybe I'm wrong about this. Maybe those players who are ALMOST as good as a GG'r and can outhit JBJ are everywhere, and they'll sign for $3-4M/year. So lets look at the ones mentioned earlier in the thread. All stats are for 2019.

 

JBJ - .224/.728, $8.5M

Billy Hamilton - .250/.500, $7.5M

Juan Legares - .215/581, $9.0M

Jarren Duran - .312/.795 (in AA) (haha), but he'll play for the ML Minimum!

Jarrod Dyson - .254/.686, 3.75M, but he's 34 years old!

 

The only one worth considering is Cameron Maybin .289/.879, and he's playing for the ML Minimum after playing for 10 teams in 12 years and being released by Cleveland. Can you spell "Crapshoot"?

 

It looks like we could sign any of these guys and save

[S5Dewey]

Irrelevant.

 

Bradley makes $8.8mill and will get somewhere in the $10-12 mill range in arbitration. Dombrowski isn’t going to pay that much for a glove only CF. No team is

 

So when Bradley reaches free agency, the Sox will approach him with an offer. If it’s the best offer, he comes back. And it might be the best offer.

 

If you don’t like the Leon comp (for irrelevant reasons, Oakland did the same with Mike Fiers

 

...and C'mon. You can't use someone as a comp and then say it's irrelevant! If you didn't think it was relevant you wouldn't have used him as a comp!

[notin]

...and C'mon. You can't use someone as a comp and then say it's irrelevant! If you didn't think it was relevant you wouldn't have used him as a comp!

 

The comparison was the process.

 

How much do you think JBJ should be paid?

[notin]

OK, maybe I'm wrong about this. Maybe those players who are ALMOST as good as a GG'r and can outhit JBJ are everywhere, and they'll sign for $3-4M/year. So lets look at the ones mentioned earlier in the thread. All stats are for 2019.

 

JBJ - .224/.728, $8.5M

Billy Hamilton - .250/.500, $7.5M

Juan Legares - .215/581, $9.0M

Jarren Duran - .312/.795 (in AA) (haha), but he'll play for the ML Minimum!

Jarrod Dyson - .254/.686, 3.75M, but he's 34 years old!

 

The only one worth considering is Cameron Maybin .289/.879, and he's playing for the ML Minimum after playing for 10 teams in 12 years and being released by Cleveland. Can you spell "Crapshoot"?

 

It looks like we could sign any of these guys and save

 

You’re going full tilt straw man here.

 

I said the Sox likely go defense in center but never set a price.

 

But I did notice everyone you listed was cheaper than $10-12mill, and by a lot. Including Legares, since it’s the AAV of the contract that matters and Legares’ contract is for 5 years $23mill, which means an AAV of $4.7mill, not $9mill.

 

My choice would be Inciarte, whose having a rough year but Atlanta appears ready to move on from a “written to be traded” deal.

 

Of course the Sox could also move on a RF and put Betts in CF. Or sign/trade for someone and move Benintendi to CF. They have a ton of options here...

Edited August 24, 2019 by notin

[moonslav59]

OK, maybe I'm wrong about this. Maybe those players who are ALMOST as good as a GG'r and can outhit JBJ are everywhere, and they'll sign for $3-4M/year. So lets look at the ones mentioned earlier in the thread. All stats are for 2019.

 

JBJ - .224/.728, $8.5M

Billy Hamilton - .250/.500, $7.5M

Juan Legares - .215/581, $9.0M

Jarren Duran - .312/.795 (in AA) (haha), but he'll play for the ML Minimum!

Jarrod Dyson - .254/.686, 3.75M, but he's 34 years old!

 

The only one worth considering is Cameron Maybin .289/.879, and he's playing for the ML Minimum after playing for 10 teams in 12 years and being released by Cleveland. Can you spell "Crapshoot"?

 

It looks like we could sign any of these guys and save

 

So, we get a .550-.700 hitter who plays near GG defense.

 

That could easily be JBJ next year at 2X , 3X or 4X the cost.

 

Hamilton & Dyson may get $2M.

 

There's probably a great defensive CF'er on some team that hits .600 to.700 that we could get by trading Johnson of Velazquez for.

 

Hamilton has a UZR/150 of 10.0 over the last 3 years.

 

Dyson is at 9.3.

 

Lagares is at 9.2.

 

I'm not high on Maybin. Others who might be available for cheap could be...

 

7.0 Jon Jay (was traded this year for not too much)

6.0 Keon Broxton (traded this year)

5.9 Leonys Martin (traded this year)

4.5 Inciarte

4.4 Kevin Pillar (traded this year)

Maybe...

4.9 Manuel Margot (who was demoted at one point this year)

 

I know UZR/150 is not perfect, but all of the above had a better number than JBJ's 4.1 over the past 3 seasons.

 

I doubt any loss on defense would be noticable or significant. It could even be better than the 2020 JBJ defense.

 

If it comes down to offense, then the whole argument we have been using to defend JBJ all the years Meant little.

 

Look, I love JBJ, but there is just no need to pay $10M for him next year. If we could non tender him and re-sign him for $4-5M, I'm all in.

 

We need every dollar to upgrade other positions or to try and re-set the tax.

 

 

Edited August 24, 2019 by moonslav59

[notin]

Yeah I’d give Brockton a legit chance over Maybin myself. But I doubt Dombrowski mucks about with either one. He might even get a corner OF and shift either Betts or Benintendi to CF...

[Bellhorn04]

4.5 Inciarte

4.4 Kevin Pillar (traded this year)

 

Inciarte is under contract for 2 more years at about 6 mill per.

Pillar is in final arb year and will probably get about 8 mill.

 

Plus you have to give up something for them.

 

All in all not a big saving.

[moonslav59]

Inciarte is under contract for 2 more years at about 6 mill per.

Pillar is in final arb year and will probably get about 8 mill.

 

Plus you have to give up something for them.

 

All in all not a big saving.

 

Okay, cross those two off the list, although Inciarte's $6.1M tax hit is still $4M less than JBJ's.

 

I'm not an expert on other team's players, but I'm pretty sure all glove CF'ers are out there for the taking.

[S5Dewey]

The comparison was the process.

 

How much do you think JBJ should be paid?

 

How much do I think he SHOULD be paid? I think they're all overpaid. As I've said before, if some researcher found a way to cure cancer he would only make a small fraction of money in his life as Mike Trout will make for playing a kid's game. That's ridiculous.

 

But.. that avoids the intent of your question:

IMO JBJ is slightly overpaid at $8.55M. I also believe that this business of a guaranteed raise each year for players in their arbitration years is plain wrong. Since the system is what it is I see no reason to grant JBJ a raise for 2020 since his contribution wasn't greater in 2019 than it was in 2018.

The two comps who come to mind immediately are Kevin Pillar (.259/.758, $5.8M) and Kevin Keirmaier (.253/.730, $8.2M). It's worth mentioning that Pillar is in the last year of his contract and will probably get a nice raise in his next contract, probably to ~$8M. It's also worth mentioning that Keirmaier will make $10.2M in 2020 and it ramps up to $13M in 2023. Those compare to JBJ's .224/.728, $8.55. For JBJ I'd continue at $8.55M but as I've been told as a member of my town's Budged Committee, I'm a cheap bastard.

[Bellhorn04]

Value is all approximate. JBJ's value based on WAR is clearly in the ballpark of 10 mill.

[oldtimer]

How much do I think he SHOULD be paid? I think they're all overpaid. As I've said before, if some researcher found a way to cure cancer he would only make a small fraction of money in his life as Mike Trout will make for playing a kid's game. That's ridiculous.

 

But.. that avoids the intent of your question:

IMO JBJ is slightly overpaid at $8.55M. I also believe that this business of a guaranteed raise each year for players in their arbitration years is plain wrong. Since the system is what it is I see no reason to grant JBJ a raise for 2020 since his contribution wasn't greater in 2019 than it was in 2018.

The two comps who come to mind immediately are Kevin Pillar (.259/.758, $5.8M) and Kevin Keirmaier (.253/.730, $8.2M). It's worth mentioning that Pillar is in the last year of his contract and will probably get a nice raise in his next contract, probably to ~$8M. It's also worth mentioning that Keirmaier will make $10.2M in 2020 and it ramps up to $13M in 2023. Those compare to JBJ's .224/.728, $8.55. For JBJ I'd continue at $8.55M but as I've been told as a member of my town's Budged Committee, I'm a cheap bastard.

 

A lot of what is paid needs to be based on the objectives of the team and its ability to pay based on meeting those objectives. It appears to me that an object of the team is to improve our farm which means we shouldn't keep spending about the limits. How we do that with existing contracts is the question. We may have to trade some of our players and replace them with younger and lower cost players since some of our ill advised and expensive contracts don't give us much leeway. JBJ is one of those players who may be traded.

[moonslav59]

For argument's sake, let's say all the Sox scouts agree that Billy Hamilton is a better defender than JBJ.

 

Let's also say he will sign for $2.5M next year with us and JBJ would win a $10.5M arb this winter, if given the chance.

 

Would you pay JBJ $8M more for the probable .100 better OPS? Does a .100 better OPS cancel out the better D by Hamilton,let alone the $8M that could help us obtain a decent pitcher or two? (Note: Ottavino went for $9M x 3 years.)

 

OPS Comp:

 

JBJ:

.728 in 2019 and .723 the last 3 years.

Hamilton:

.543 in 2019 and .613 the last 3 years.

 

Jarrod Dyson

.686 in 2019 and .647 the last 3 years.

 

Leonys Martin

.619 in 2019 and .659 the last 3 years.

 

Juan Lagares

.581 in 2019 and .641 the last 3 years.

 

My guess is there are more- maybe some unknown defensive whiz in AAA that is currently blocked.

 

[moonslav59]

A lot of what is paid needs to be based on the objectives of the team and its ability to pay based on meeting those objectives. It appears to me that an object of the team is to improve our farm which means we shouldn't keep spending about the limits. How we do that with existing contracts is the question. We may have to trade some of our players and replace them with younger and lower cost players since some of our ill advised and expensive contracts don't give us much leeway. JBJ is one of those players who may be traded.

 

Reset or not, I think Sox management will decide not to pay $10+M for JBJ's services, next year.

 

I'm not sure if we will be trade him or non tender him, but I doubt we keep him, unless it's by non tendering him and then signing him for less than the arb would have been.

 

[Bellhorn04]

For argument's sake, let's say all the Sox scouts agree that Billy Hamilton is a better defender than JBJ.

 

Let's also say he will sign for $2.5M next year with us and JBJ would win a $10.5M arb this winter, if given the chance.

 

Would you pay JBJ $8M more for the probable .100 better OPS? Does a .100 better OPS cancel out the better D by Hamilton,let alone the $8M that could help us obtain a decent pitcher or two?

 

This is exactly why WAR is a useful tool.

[moonslav59]

This is exactly why WAR is a useful tool.

 

True, but WAR is also a product or playing a lot. Here are some 2019 WAR numbers with their PAs listed:

 

2.6 Buxton 295

1.7 Margot 343

1.3 Dyson 370

0.9 JBJ 461

0.3 Hamilton 309

-0.6 Martin 264 (fangraphs had his value at $19.6M in 2018.)

-0.6 Broxton 216 (fangraphs: $27.9M previous 3 yrs)

 

 

[S5Dewey]

This is exactly why WAR is a useful tool.

 

Here's exactly why WAR is not a useful tool, at least in this situation:

1) IIRC we've already discussed and agreed (?) that JBJ's WAR is reduced because he has Mookie beside him and Mookie keeps JBJ from getting to balls he would otherwise get to thereby deflating JBJ's WAR.

 

2)

BR:

JBJ's WAR = 1.6, Hamilton's WAR = 0.0

 

Fangraphs:

JBJ: oWAR = -2.6, dWAR = 0.1, WAR = 0.9

BH: oWAR = -17.2, dWAR = 9.7, WAR = 0.3

 

Two comments: Doesn't the disparity in these two methods strike anyone else as being odd? I mean, -17.2 vs. -2.6? 9.7 vs. 0.1?

 

Further, assuming that a player's WAR should be a total of his offense and defense...

In what world does -2.6 + 0.1 = 0.9?

In what world does -17.2 + 9.7 = 0.3?

Is that this "new math" we've been hearing about? Or is it just something that's beyond the comprehension of us mere mortals?

 

And you wonder why i question WAR.

[S5Dewey]

True, but WAR is also a product or playing a lot. Here are some 2019 WAR numbers with their PAs listed:

 

2.6 Buxton 295

1.7 Margot 343

1.3 Dyson 370

0.9 JBJ 461

0.3 Hamilton 309

-0.6 Martin 264 (fangraphs had his value at $19.6M in 2018.)

-0.6 Broxton 216 (fangraphs: $27.9M previous 3 yrs)

 

 

 

That's all fine and good but when a fan who's NOT a geek looks at the WAR of two players does that fan then think, "Yes' but Player A has played in 35 more games than Player B. Therefore it's not a fair comparison.

 

In fact, does anyone here do that, or do we just accept that a player with a better WAR is the better player?

Think about it.

[Bellhorn04]

That's all fine and good but when a fan who's NOT a geek looks at the WAR of two players does that fan then think, "Yes' but Player A has played in 35 more games than Player B. Therefore it's not a fair comparison.

 

In fact, does anyone here do that, or do we just accept that a player with a better WAR is the better player?

Think about it.

 

WAR requires some digging into. It's just a starting point. If you use it with any regularity you know that it's a 'counting number' so games played is a big factor.

[notin]

Fangraphs:

JBJ: oWAR = -2.6, dWAR = 0.1, WAR = 0.9

BH: oWAR = -17.2, dWAR = 9.7, WAR = 0.3

 

Two comments: Doesn't the disparity in these two methods strike anyone else as being odd? I mean, -17.2 vs. -2.6? 9.7 vs. 0.1?

 

Further, assuming that a player's WAR should be a total of his offense and defense...

In what world does -2.6 + 0.1 = 0.9?

In what world does -17.2 + 9.7 = 0.3?

Is that this "new math" we've been hearing about? Or is it just something that's beyond the comprehension of us mere mortals?

 

And you wonder why i question WAR.

 

Would it help if you knew those numbers were NOT oWAR and dWAR? The Offense component is batting and baserunning runs above average. And the Defense number is defense runs above average with a positional adjustment...

[notin]

That's all fine and good but when a fan who's NOT a geek looks at the WAR of two players does that fan then think, "Yes' but Player A has played in 35 more games than Player B. Therefore it's not a fair comparison.

 

In fact, does anyone here do that, or do we just accept that a player with a better WAR is the better player?

Think about it.

 

Don’t people do that with batting average? Or ERA? This is not new stuff here...

[notin]

True, but WAR is also a product or playing a lot. Here are some 2019 WAR numbers with their PAs listed:

 

2.6 Buxton 295

1.7 Margot 343

1.3 Dyson 370

0.9 JBJ 461

0.3 Hamilton 309

-0.6 Martin 264 (fangraphs had his value at $19.6M in 2018.)

-0.6 Broxton 216 (fangraphs: $27.9M previous 3 yrs)

 

 

 

Personally I would love for the Sox to get Keon Broxton. Offense is inconsistent. Glove is excellent. Not enough “O”’s in “Smoooooth” to describe him out there...

[harmony]

Personally I would love for the Sox to get Keon Broxton. Offense is inconsistent. Glove is excellent. Not enough “O”’s in “Smoooooth” to describe him out there...

Whom could the Red Sox trade to Seattle for Keon Broxton, who should have three years of team control after this season?

 

https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/b/broxtke01.shtml

[S5Dewey]

Don’t people do that with batting average? Or ERA? This is not new stuff here...

 

Of course the difference is that WAR is cumulative whereas BA & ERA are averages (hence the "A" )