Wild Card Race

[OH FOY]

More I think about it todays game is 100, every game you win is huge now. 63 game schedule, cannot lose games that you have the lead now. Just cannot, that 1 game might be the difference.

[devildavid]

Looks like the Sox are heading for a second place finish in the division and not making the playoffs.

[oldtimer]

Looks like the Sox are heading for a second place finish in the division and not making the playoffs.

 

The Sox are soon to lose another game to the Os. Just no life in this team.

[notin]

The Sox are soon to lose another game to the Os. Just no life in this team.

 

Trade some players. Fire Dombrowski.

 

The Sox just got one hit by a guy who was acquired two weeks ago for cash considerations. This is how ignoring the waiver wire can burn you...

[Noles_1335]

If the team plays the rest of the season the way we played on Friday and Today.... there’s not enough talent out there that we can afford that will get us into WS contention! Seriously, time to start thinking about selling and acquiring depth and actual talent to go forward!

[Swiharts Ghost]

Trade some players. Fire Dombrowski.

 

The Sox just got one hit by a guy who was acquired two weeks ago for cash considerations. This is how ignoring the waiver wire can burn you...

 

I agree but don't fire Dave fire Dana first .

[TylerD]

If the team plays the rest of the season the way we played on Friday and Today.... there’s not enough talent out there that we can afford that will get us into WS contention! Seriously, time to start thinking about selling and acquiring depth and actual talent to go forward!

 

At this point we won’t even make playoffs. We are now. What..... 4 games out of a playoff spot? With Tampa and New York coming up. Time to start thinking about next season. Cora is a fool if he says the same generic crap of “we will be ok” more than half the season is gone. No we won’t be ok. We just lost a series to friggin Baltimore

[notin]

I agree but don't fire Dave fire Dana first .

 

I am all for letting Cora handle his coaches as he pleases. And while Cora also has some blame in this lackluster season, I’m willing to chalk that up to inexperience and hope he learns accordingly.

 

But Dombrowski? He’s a veteran GM who not only should know what he’s doing by now, but has also shown he is incapable of learning from his mistakes...

[TylerD]

Don’t worry folks. The Colts and that beautiful Andrew Luck season is coming soon

[FredLynn]

I am all for letting Cora handle his coaches as he pleases. And while Cora also has some blame in this lackluster season, I’m willing to chalk that up to inexperience and hope he learns accordingly.

 

But Dombrowski? He’s a veteran GM who not only should know what he’s doing by now, but has also shown he is incapable of learning from his mistakes...

 

Cora and Dombrowski are coming of an epic season, and they followed it by a very ugly season. I give them both one more year. Make a deep playoff run next year or both should be canned.

[OH FOY]

Don’t worry folks. The Colts and that beautiful Andrew Luck season is coming soon

 

Through N.E.

[jacksonianmarch]

Cora and Dombrowski are coming of an epic season, and they followed it by a very ugly season. I give them both one more year. Make a deep playoff run next year or both should be canned.

 

DD did EXACTLY what he said he would do. He said he would make the team title contenders immediately. They were. They won three consecutive division titles and took home a WS title. This year, the bloom fell off the rose. Putting expectations on DD to go deep in the playoffs with even more limited resources next season isn’t reasonable. It might happen, but it’s not a reasonable likelihood. Cora won a title and led the team to the best season in their history. Yes, his approach from the outset this year was absolutely wrong. But a guy who hangs a flag out on the facade doesn’t get canned the following year unless he’s screwing a reporter or something (that’s for you Farrell).

 

This is the natural progression of a team that sells out for a title. Some guys fail and when they do, the ready made minor league replacements aren’t there. The minor league assets to be used for trade improvements aren’t there. The financial room to outbid everyone or take on bad contracts isn’t there. DD gave you a three year run of excellence which culminated in a title. This is the fall phase of that effort. It came a year sooner than expected.

[OH FOY]

Good thing the A's lost. Then this loss to the O's would have been very costly. 5 in the loss Column behind the Guardians. Edited July 22, 2019 by OH FOY!

[jacksonianmarch]

When you're down, the leader losing is an opportunity. Losing when the leader loses is a lost opportunity.

[TylerD]

Through N.E.

 

Luckily Colts don’t have to play the pats this year. Of course there’s a chance in the playoffs. I just want to get revenge against the Chiefs.

[oldtimer]

DD did EXACTLY what he said he would do. He said he would make the team title contenders immediately. They were. They won three consecutive division titles and took home a WS title. This year, the bloom fell off the rose. Putting expectations on DD to go deep in the playoffs with even more limited resources next season isn’t reasonable. It might happen, but it’s not a reasonable likelihood. Cora won a title and led the team to the best season in their history. Yes, his approach from the outset this year was absolutely wrong. But a guy who hangs a flag out on the facade doesn’t get canned the following year unless he’s screwing a reporter or something (that’s for you Farrell).

 

This is the natural progression of a team that sells out for a title. Some guys fail and when they do, the ready made minor league replacements aren’t there. The minor league assets to be used for trade improvements aren’t there. The financial room to outbid everyone or take on bad contracts isn’t there. DD gave you a three year run of excellence which culminated in a title. This is the fall phase of that effort. It came a year sooner than expected.

The Sox currently are a team with a depleted farm system and a team who undertook long term contracts which could limit flexability going forward. Because of our successes and our spending habits, we got bottom of the barrel draft selections. Almost inexplicably, some of our promising players have had off years or worse. Team management has not been working well this year. I am happy with out WS win, but it is becoming more apparent that significant changes need to be made in several facets of the team.

 

1. Aging starters with somewhat declining performance under long term contracts may be a tough one to solve. It is doubtful to me that we can trade pitchers and get better. Best bet is to let go of Porcello and try to find 1 or2 decent younger starters. Porcello's loss would give us money to work with for young starters. i assume Eovaldi will return to startiing next season.

 

2. The BP is thin on talent and needs rework with as many as three new arms. I don't know where the money will come from but we need one of them to be closer quality.

 

3. In the field, we had some deficiencies that were not, and maybe could not be addressed this season.

 

I hope that we can resign Mookie but would offer him a shorter contract and certainly less than $30 Mil AAV. His contract should be based on his performance, which is good this year, not great. The extra money for Mookie is going to be hard to find.

 

I would look to trade Beni, JBJ. Moreland, Leon and make an effort to get better. Face facts, Pedroia is not coming back and we will eat his ill advised contract.

 

I would keep Devers, Bogie, Chavis, Holt, Hernandez and Vaz. and try to find improvements for the others we lose. To help find those replacement, I would bring up the minor league players who have a chance to make the club in future and see if these is a diamond in the rough or two.

 

The question of JDM is a tough one. He is with us unless he opts out (I doubt that) or we trade him. He is a very talented player but the money he represents for a DH only is exorbitent. If we are rid of a $25 mil contract, we could find a DH for less (maybe $12mil) and use the money to shore the team up in other areas.

 

Making these significant changes would make us at least a representative team in 2020 and put us on the road to recovery in 2021 and beyond.

[Fan_since_Boggs]

I would look to trade Beni, JBJ. Moreland, Leon'

 

I would hate to trade Benintendi on a down year. While I would be willing to move him, my asking price would be pretty high. I skeptical that teams are going to break the bank for him, though--he is a corner outfielder without a lot of power.

 

As far as Leon goes, he is totally useless as a player and trade chip. Fact is, any team could have had him for 2.5 million and no one wanted him at that price. I'm open to trading Bradley, but where does next year's CF come from?

 

The Red Sox have the offense. They need to rebuild the bullpen next year and they need to find another SP. The pitching staff has let them down this year, the offense is fine. I doubt Martinez opts out.

 

I would definitely see what I could get for Chavis. I'm not sold on Chavis, a steroids guy, and his trade value at present might be as high as it will ever be.

[jacksonianmarch]

Your recommended changes are mostly a wish and a prayer. You're asking for diamonds in the rough and there just aren't any. The sox minor league system is almost entirely devoid of talent. The guys who some people here were hoping to take the next step have fallen tremendously at the upper levels. The lower level prospects have stalled. The guys you might have thought were fast movers cannot get out of their own way.

 

The biggest thing to look at is the money. Let's say Betts avoids arb at the $28 mil rate, which is entirely possible, then you have

 

Pedroia $14 mil AAV

Price $31 mil

JDM $22 mil

Vazquez $4 mil

Eovaldi $17 mil

Betts $28 mil

Bogey $20 mil

Sale $29 mil

 

That's $165 mil right there. $208 mil is the lux tax threshold. Add in $15 mil for medicals and the following for arb players

E-Rod $10 mil

JBJ $10 mil

Benintendi $5 mil

Barnes $3 mil

Workman $3 mil

Hembree $3 mil

Marco Hernandez $1 mil

 

You're at $215 mil right there. You're already $7 mil over the first threshold just keeping the band together minus Porcello. Let's assume Porcello moves on as does Pearce, Holt, Wright, Leon and Moreland. Eovaldi moves back into the rotation. Chavis moves to 1B. You'll need to hope Marco can stay healthy and man 2b. You'll need a utility man behind him capable of playing well. You will need a backup C. You will need another starter. Consider the other 11 spots on the 25 man are gonna make the minimum and you're down another $5.5 mil. You've got $27.5 mil to upgrade your team. Relievers got really expensive last offseason. High end closers didn't get expensive, but the middle relief guys who were studs got expensive. Starters are expensive. Adding a pen arm and a FA starter is gonna take up your entire cap and that doesn't even begin to address the fact that you're essentially keeping the band together who just spent the first 100 games sleepwalking. There are no diamonds in the rough. You don't have the assets in the minor league system to get young, controllable starters without hurting your big league club.

[jacksonianmarch]

I would hate to trade Benintendi on a down year. While I would be willing to move him, my asking price would be pretty high. I skeptical that teams are going to break the bank for him, though--he is a corner outfielder without a lot of power.

 

As far as Leon goes, he is totally useless as a player and trade chip. Fact is, any team could have had him for 2.5 million and no one wanted him at that price. I'm open to trading Bradley, but where does next year's CF come from?

 

The Red Sox have the offense. They need to rebuild the bullpen next year and they need to find another SP. The pitching staff has let them down this year, the offense is fine. I doubt Martinez opts out.

 

I would definitely see what I could get for Chavis. I'm not sold on Chavis, a steroids guy, and his trade value at present might be as high as it will ever be.

 

We are agreeing a lot lately, and it hurts me. Leon is useless. You don't sell Beni low. Chavis is definitely a guy with promise and a HUGE hole in his swing who has sucked since the opposition found it. JBJ can be dealt, but his market is gonna be tight. On the arb market, he is gonna get nearly $10 mil. His defense has dropped off considerably this year on both the eye test (well, mine) and in all defensive metrics. He is a one trick pony and if that trick is drying up, then he is dead in the water. He is a possible DFA candidate to be totally honest

[Fan_since_Boggs]

The Red Sox could use Chavis in a trade for a SP while replacing Chavis next season with Dalbec.

 

I wouldn't worry about the offense--the Red Sox should have one of the more prolific offenses in the game next year. The bigger problem concerns the bullpen and a starter beyond the top 4: Sale, Price, E-Rod, and Eovaldi.

[jacksonianmarch]

The Red Sox could use Chavis in a trade for a SP while replacing Chavis next season with Dalbec.

 

I wouldn't worry about the offense--the Red Sox should have one of the more prolific offenses in the game next year. The bigger problem concerns the bullpen and a starter beyond the top 4: Sale, Price, E-Rod, and Eovaldi.

 

Dalbec has been terrible in the second half of the minor league season at AA. He isn't ready for the bigs. He may not be ready for AAA. I do agree that your offense should be good, especially with Devers taking off. But you don't want auto-outs, especially at traditionally powerful positions. My assumption is the sox would fill 1b with someone who can hit the ball out of the park. The problem with Chavis is that he is a 1b in a utility man's clothing and other team's know it. He might bring back something of value if some GM is infatuated with his ability to hit the ball very, very far. But he is a replaceable commodity at 1b who doesn't offer anything above and beyond for the traditionally offensive minded position

[moonslav59]

Dalbec has been terrible in the second half of the minor league season at AA. He isn't ready for the bigs. He may not be ready for AAA. I do agree that your offense should be good, especially with Devers taking off. But you don't want auto-outs, especially at traditionally powerful positions. My assumption is the sox would fill 1b with someone who can hit the ball out of the park. The problem with Chavis is that he is a 1b in a utility man's clothing and other team's know it. He might bring back something of value if some GM is infatuated with his ability to hit the ball very, very far. But he is a replaceable commodity at 1b who doesn't offer anything above and beyond for the traditionally offensive minded position

 

Dalbec has an .821 OPS in July. That doesn't sound too terrible.

 

(.746 second half)

[dgalehouse]

Call me crazy ( actually , I probably am crazy ) , but I would not trade Chavis . I do like , and relate to , his habit of recording at bats in a notebook. His potential is terrific. Like all rookies, he has to make adjustments. How can you cry about our " desolate farm " , then want to trade him ?

[moonslav59]

Call me crazy ( actually , I probably am crazy ) , but I would not trade Chavis . I do like , and relate to , his habit of recording at bats in a notebook. His potential is terrific. Like all rookies, he has to make adjustments. How can you cry about our " desolate farm " , then want to trade him ?

 

I fear he may be the next Middlebrooks, but I agree with you. We have to hold onto any semblance of young and team controlled talent.

 

This whole trade the future for the now is what got us in this mess.

[dgalehouse]

I fear he may be the next Middlebrooks, but I agree with you. We have to hold onto any semblance of young and team controlled talent.

 

This whole trade the future for the now is what got us in this mess.

 

I don't know . We have a lot of success and enjoyment to show for " mortgaging the future ". It seems to have been worth it . And the kids we traded were really not all that good for the most part . We were smart enough to keep Devers . The situation we are in now is mostly caused by the underachievement of some of the starting pitchers and the unrealistic assumption that the guys we had in the bullpen were enough to get the job done . But we still have a core of young , talented players to build around.

[TylerD]

The Sox currently are a team with a depleted farm system and a team who undertook long term contracts which could limit flexability going forward. Because of our successes and our spending habits, we got bottom of the barrel draft selections. Almost inexplicably, some of our promising players have had off years or worse. Team management has not been working well this year. I am happy with out WS win, but it is becoming more apparent that significant changes need to be made in several facets of the team.

 

1. Aging starters with somewhat declining performance under long term contracts may be a tough one to solve. It is doubtful to me that we can trade pitchers and get better. Best bet is to let go of Porcello and try to find 1 or2 decent younger starters. Porcello's loss would give us money to work with for young starters. i assume Eovaldi will return to startiing next season.

 

2. The BP is thin on talent and needs rework with as many as three new arms. I don't know where the money will come from but we need one of them to be closer quality.

 

3. In the field, we had some deficiencies that were not, and maybe could not be addressed this season.

 

I hope that we can resign Mookie but would offer him a shorter contract and certainly less than $30 Mil AAV. His contract should be based on his performance, which is good this year, not great. The extra money for Mookie is going to be hard to find.

 

I would look to trade Beni, JBJ. Moreland, Leon and make an effort to get better. Face facts, Pedroia is not coming back and we will eat his ill advised contract.

 

I would keep Devers, Bogie, Chavis, Holt, Hernandez and Vaz. and try to find improvements for the others we lose. To help find those replacement, I would bring up the minor league players who have a chance to make the club in future and see if these is a diamond in the rough or two.

 

The question of JDM is a tough one. He is with us unless he opts out (I doubt that) or we trade him. He is a very talented player but the money he represents for a DH only is exorbitent. If we are rid of a $25 mil contract, we could find a DH for less (maybe $12mil) and use the money to shore the team up in other areas.

 

Making these significant changes would make us at least a representative team in 2020 and put us on the road to recovery in 2021 and beyond.

Wow.

 

Well said.

[moonslav59]

I don't know . We have a lot of success and enjoyment to show for " mortgaging the future ". It seems to have been worth it . And the kids we traded were really not all that good for the most part . We were smart enough to keep Devers . The situation we are in now is mostly caused by the underachievement of some of the starting pitchers and the unrealistic assumption that the guys we had in the bullpen were enough to get the job done . But we still have a core of young , talented players to build around.

 

I've said all along I was fine with DD's plan. I enjoyed the success and enjoyment, and it was worth it.

 

We do have a nice core of young players, but let's not kid ourselves. This team has serious issues going forward: financial and with the poor farm system in an era where it is very difficult to rebuild the farm while winning and being a high spender at the same time.

 

I expected a cliff, and it is quickly coming upon us. We can choose to try and stay pretty competitive for the remainder of this year and maybe next by spending large and wishing our vets bounce back, but sooner or later, we pay the piper.

[OH FOY]

I think Dalbec will be more like Middlebrooks then Chavis. Chavis although stocky is still quicker, and more versatile then Dalbec. No way in a pinch can Dalbec play either SS or 2nd. If need be I bet you could throw Chavis in the Outfield in an emergency, Versatile makes you more valuable.

I wont get into OPS. Its a Mirage.

Edited July 22, 2019 by OH FOY!

[notin]

I think Dalbec will be more like Middlebrooks then Chavis. Chavis although stocky is still quicker, and more versatile then Dalbec. No way in a pinch can Dalbec play either SS or 2nd. If need be I bet you could throw Chavis in the Outfield in an emergency, Versatile makes you more valuable.

I wont get into OPS. Its a Mirage.

 

I wouldn’t call OPS a mirage. But it is unquantifiable.

 

If one batter has a higher BA by .030, we get it means he got hits in 3% more at bats. If a player has a higher SLG by .030, we can tell he got 3 more total bases per 100 at bats. If a player has a higher OBP by .030, he got a hit or walk or HBP in 3% more of his plate appearances. But if a player has a higher OPS by .030, what does it mean? On its own, you can’t tell. If course, you can tell simply by looking at OBP and SLG.

 

Now the plus side, it’s the one simple stat that incorporates walks/HBP and doesn’t treat all hurts equally. It’s a far better overall picture of a player’s offensive accomplishments than any other single stat. And it’s much easier to find or calculate than Total Average, which did the same thing but incorporated stolen bases and caught stealing and runs scored. And the complexity of Total Average (which predated the widespread use of computers) was a big reason why it never caught on...

[notin]

I think Dalbec will be more like Middlebrooks then Chavis. Chavis although stocky is still quicker, and more versatile then Dalbec. No way in a pinch can Dalbec play either SS or 2nd. If need be I bet you could throw Chavis in the Outfield in an emergency, Versatile makes you more valuable.

 

Versatility is apparently a big deal in fWAR, and a huge reason why players like Ben Zobrist could sneak to the top of the league leaders in that category.

 

I can see pluses and minuses. On one hand, I felt it artificially inflated the defensive contributions from a player. But on the other, having a player who can defend multiple positions well is absolutely an asset..