The Mookie Betts Performance Thread

[jung]

Is Mookie finally starting to show signs of life?

 

Not sure if anybody has mentioned it yet but it should be painfully obvious that Mookie has benefited mightily from now having Rafi hitting behind him. JD, not so much from Rafi having moved up in the order. Now JD is stuck with who.....Beni???? Give me a break. Even Vaz is not going to really scare pitchers. By season end, everybody that can swing a bat at all will have close to or over 20 HR's on the year. So Vaz isn't scarin' anybody. Cora probably won't often move Chavis behind JD because they are both RH hitters. But even with Chavis limitations he might, MIGHT provide more protection for JD than Vaz can provide and Beni is no protection at all. Could put JBJ behind JD. Oh yea....that will work!....NOT!!!!

[S5Dewey]

Not sure if anybody has mentioned it yet but it should be painfully obvious that Mookie has benefited mightily from now having Rafi hitting behind him. JD, not so much from Rafi having moved up in the order. Now JD is stuck with who.....Beni???? Give me a break. Even Vaz is not going to really scare pitchers. By season end, everybody that can swing a bat at all will have close to or over 20 HR's on the year. So Vaz isn't scarin' anybody. Cora probably won't often move Chavis behind JD because they are both RH hitters. But even with Chavis limitations he might, MIGHT provide more protection for JD than Vaz can provide and Beni is no protection at all. Could put JBJ behind JD. Oh yea....that will work!....NOT!!!!

 

Protection in the lineup is a myth. Anything that says differently is no more than anecdotal evidence and is therefore worthless. /s/

[Bellhorn04]

Not sure if anybody has mentioned it yet but it should be painfully obvious that Mookie has benefited mightily from now having Rafi hitting behind him. JD, not so much from Rafi having moved up in the order. Now JD is stuck with who.....Beni???? Give me a break. Even Vaz is not going to really scare pitchers. By season end, everybody that can swing a bat at all will have close to or over 20 HR's on the year. So Vaz isn't scarin' anybody. Cora probably won't often move Chavis behind JD because they are both RH hitters. But even with Chavis limitations he might, MIGHT provide more protection for JD than Vaz can provide and Beni is no protection at all. Could put JBJ behind JD. Oh yea....that will work!....NOT!!!!

 

So how do we explain Mookie's OPS being about 200 points higher in 2018 with Beni hitting behind him?

 

These theories fall apart if you actually take the time to dig into the numbers.

[notin]

So how do we explain Mookie's OPS being about 200 points higher in 2018 with Beni hitting behind him?

 

These theories fall apart if you actually take the time to dig into the numbers.

 

 

Benintendi was hitting much better in 2018...

[Bellhorn04]

Benintendi was hitting much better in 2018...

 

Beni had an .809 OPS batting second in 2018. He has an .809 OPS batting second in 2019.

Edited July 19, 2019 by Bellhorn04

[notin]

Protection in the lineup is a myth. Anything that says differently is no more than anecdotal evidence and is therefore worthless. /s/

 

 

Right so this is proof.

 

Of course in the first 6 games with Benintendi hitting behind him, JD had an OPS over 1.100.

 

He did struggle in the two series since, so I guess that is where the proof lies...

[Maxbialystock]

Not sure if anybody has mentioned it yet but it should be painfully obvious that Mookie has benefited mightily from now having Rafi hitting behind him. JD, not so much from Rafi having moved up in the order. Now JD is stuck with who.....Beni???? Give me a break. Even Vaz is not going to really scare pitchers. By season end, everybody that can swing a bat at all will have close to or over 20 HR's on the year. So Vaz isn't scarin' anybody. Cora probably won't often move Chavis behind JD because they are both RH hitters. But even with Chavis limitations he might, MIGHT provide more protection for JD than Vaz can provide and Beni is no protection at all. Could put JBJ behind JD. Oh yea....that will work!....NOT!!!!

 

This lineup is a disaster of the first order, and Cora is an idiot. Noted. But read on.

 

So far this year the Sox have scored 547 runs, which leads MLB. If they keep up this pace, they will score 913 runs for the season. The last time a MLB team scored more than 913 runs in a season was 2009, when the Yankees scored 915. And, of course, the 2004 Red Sox scored 949 runs.

 

Think you might want to amend your post just a little bit?

[Slasher9]

Protection in the lineup is a myth. Anything that says differently is no more than anecdotal evidence and is therefore worthless. /s/

Zing!

+2 points.

[S5Dewey]

Right so this is proof.

 

Of course in the first 6 games with Benintendi hitting behind him, JD had an OPS over 1.100.

 

He did struggle in the two series since, so I guess that is where the proof lies...

 

Very few things in statistics is proof of anything that might happen. That's why I give stats, common sense, and the eye test equal value.

[Bellhorn04]

Zing!

+2 points.

 

Yeah, well, it's nothing but crickets on the Beni thing.

[Slasher9]

This lineup is a disaster of the first order, and Cora is an idiot. Noted. But read on.

 

So far this year the Sox have scored 547 runs, which leads MLB. If they keep up this pace, they will score 913 runs for the season. The last time a MLB team scored more than 913 runs in a season was 2009, when the Yankees scored 915. And, of course, the 2004 Red Sox scored 949 runs.

 

Think you might want to amend your post just a little bit?

 

It’s the baseballs. Everyone is scoring more runs. One would hope that the team with basically the same exact lineup as 2018 would score many more runs with the turbo charged baseballs that are super charged with radiation from the fukadome plant....

[Slasher9]

Yeah, well, it's nothing but crickets on the Beni thing.

 

 

Hfx I know you get it. But as a reminder....

Playing Baseball is almost as much mental as it is physical. Hitting a baseball is almost as much physical as it is mental.

Baseball players believe in protection. It gives them confidence. Whether or not the protection is an actual real thing doesn’t matter. The hitter thinks it is helpful so it is POWERFUL.

[S5Dewey]

Hfx I know you get it. But as a reminder....

Playing Baseball is almost as much mental as it is physical. Hitting a baseball is almost as much physical as it is mental.

Baseball players believe in protection. It gives them confidence. Whether or not the protection is an actual real thing doesn’t matter. The hitter thinks it is helpful so it is POWERFUL.

 

Just like some pitchers have good success against some hitters and some hitters "own" certain pitchers. It's in the mind. When you believe you're going to be successful then being successful is more likely to happen. And the same with being unsuccessful.

[Bellhorn04]

Hfx I know you get it. But as a reminder....

Playing Baseball is almost as much mental as it is physical. Hitting a baseball is almost as much physical as it is mental.

Baseball players believe in protection. It gives them confidence. Whether or not the protection is an actual real thing doesn’t matter. The hitter thinks it is helpful so it is POWERFUL.

 

But numbers should back it up. Mookie had his career season in 2018 with Beni hitting behind him.

 

Now we're supposed to believe Mookie's recent hot streak is only because they put someone better than Beni behind him?

[notin]

Hfx I know you get it. But as a reminder....

Playing Baseball is almost as much mental as it is physical. Hitting a baseball is almost as much physical as it is mental.

Baseball players believe in protection. It gives them confidence. Whether or not the protection is an actual real thing doesn’t matter. The hitter thinks it is helpful so it is POWERFUL.

 

You don’t think these guys have enough confidence in themselves, that each one believes he can hit regardless of who else is around them in the lineup.

 

I bet you will NEVER find a major leaguer who thinks “If only Player X hit behind me, then I’d be really good.”

[Kimmi]

Protection in the lineup is a myth. Anything that says differently is no more than anecdotal evidence and is therefore worthless. /s/

 

Sarcasm or not, it's the truth!

[Kimmi]

Hfx I know you get it. But as a reminder....

Playing Baseball is almost as much mental as it is physical. Hitting a baseball is almost as much physical as it is mental.

Baseball players believe in protection. It gives them confidence. Whether or not the protection is an actual real thing doesn’t matter. The hitter thinks it is helpful so it is POWERFUL.

 

I 100% agree with all of that.

 

And yet, the statistics do not bear that out. A pitcher will pitch a batter differently, but the results to the hitter are not significantly different. A hitter does the same whether he has Devers or Leon batting behind him, even with all the added confidence.

[a700hitter]

Hfx I know you get it. But as a reminder....

Playing Baseball is almost as much mental as it is physical. Hitting a baseball is almost as much physical as it is mental.

Baseball players believe in protection. It gives them confidence. Whether or not the protection is an actual real thing doesn’t matter. The hitter thinks it is helpful so it is POWERFUL.

I think it goes beyond just the guy batting behind you. When a lineup has a wrecking ball in the lineup like David Ortiz or a JD, it changes the whole dynamic of the batting order and how pitchers approach a lineup. Mookie’s worst season was the year after Papi left. I don’t think that was a coincidence. People will say that he was banged up and that was probably part of it, but I think there was a down offensive season across the board for the Red Sox, because pitchers didn’t have to worry about the big cannon blowing up their games.

 

I wouldn’t look at Beni as Mookies protection in 2018, but rather JD hitting 2 spot behind him. No pitcher wanted to put guys on base in front of a guy that can take you out of the park to all fields. Are there numbers to prove this? No. This is where statistics fall short. No stat can interpret the dynamics of the game. When things don’t work out according to statistics people lean on the randomness argument. I think that is a cop out. There is not as much randomness as people think. If the game was so full of randomness, the Orioles would have had a shot at the playoffs. Good teams usually perform well and bad teams perform to their level. The same goes for the players. There are many aspects that go into performance other than talent. There is the emotional element (that is huge), scouting, coaching etc. These play into performance day to day and on a long term basis. These affect the dynamics of team and individual performance. They are not randomness. Why do some players hit better in one spot in the order than another. You can’t just chalk it up to randomness because you cannot define or identify the dynamics at play. We also don’t know the dynamics of how a lineup affects an opposing pitcher. I am in the camp that protection in the order is not a myth.

[a700hitter]

But numbers should back it up. Mookie had his career season in 2018 with Beni hitting behind him.

 

Now we're supposed to believe Mookie's recent hot streak is only because they put someone better than Beni behind him?

Are you certain in discounting Dever’s presence in the 2 hole on Mookie coming out of his funk?

[Bellhorn04]

Are you certain in discounting Dever’s presence in the 2 hole on Mookie coming out of his funk?

 

I'm very skeptical that it has anything to do with it. Certainty either way is impossible.

[a700hitter]

I'm very skeptical that it has anything to do with it. Certainty either way is impossible.

Betts was due to come out of his funk, but Devers is helping him. I am not skeptical of that.

[Bellhorn04]

The protection thing is predicated on the idea that Mookie is now getting better pitches to hit. That's something that should be detectable in the pitch data. I don't have the data so I can't comment on that.

 

On an 'anecdotal' basis, though, from reading game threads, what some posters were saying about Mookie when he was in a funk was that he was getting good pitches and not swinging at them, his approach was too passive. Again, that would be in the pitch data.

[Maxbialystock]

It’s the baseballs. Everyone is scoring more runs. One would hope that the team with basically the same exact lineup as 2018 would score many more runs with the turbo charged baseballs that are super charged with radiation from the fukadome plant....

 

Fine. It's the baseballs. But the Sox lead MLB in scoring right now with this stupid manager and his terrible lineups. Are you saying that the Sox are the only team allowed to hit these specially juiced baseballs?

[Maxbialystock]

I think it goes beyond just the guy batting behind you. When a lineup has a wrecking ball in the lineup like David Ortiz or a JD, it changes the whole dynamic of the batting order and how pitchers approach a lineup. Mookie’s worst season was the year after Papi left. I don’t think that was a coincidence. People will say that he was banged up and that was probably part of it, but I think there was a down offensive season across the board for the Red Sox, because pitchers didn’t have to worry about the big cannon blowing up their games.

 

I wouldn’t look at Beni as Mookies protection in 2018, but rather JD hitting 2 spot behind him. No pitcher wanted to put guys on base in front of a guy that can take you out of the park to all fields. Are there numbers to prove this? No. This is where statistics fall short. No stat can interpret the dynamics of the game. When things don’t work out according to statistics people lean on the randomness argument. I think that is a cop out. There is not as much randomness as people think. If the game was so full of randomness, the Orioles would have had a shot at the playoffs. Good teams usually perform well and bad teams perform to their level. The same goes for the players. There are many aspects that go into performance other than talent. There is the emotional element (that is huge), scouting, coaching etc. These play into performance day to day and on a long term basis. These affect the dynamics of team and individual performance. They are not randomness. Why do some players hit better in one spot in the order than another. You can’t just chalk it up to randomness because you cannot define or identify the dynamics at play. We also don’t know the dynamics of how a lineup affects an opposing pitcher. I am in the camp that protection in the order is not a myth.

 

I like most of what you say because I too believe Ortiz and then JDM had a positive effect on the entire lineup. But my impression this year is that there are fewer holes in this year's lineup than last year's. Devers and Bogie have helped immensely, of course, but Mookie ain't exactly chopped liver, nor is JDM. Beni is only 50 points below last year's OPS. Vazquez is at least 200 points above last year's. JBJ until the last week, was hitting awfully well. We're missing Moreland/Pearce, but Chavis has been an adequate fill-in--also at 2B. Hernandez has hit well at 2B, as has Holt.

 

My point is that, when Chavez is catching, it's a pretty good lineup with these nine OPS's: .942(Bogie), .975(Devers), .879(Betts), .871(JDM), .770(Beni), .844(Vazquez), .790(Chavez), .711(JBJ), .850(Holt). And I left out Moreland at .859 and Hernandez at .864. The only bad bats still around are Leon, .527, and Travis, .464.

Edited July 19, 2019 by Maxbialystock

[moonslav59]

I like most of what you say because I too believe Ortiz and then JDM had a positive effect on the entire lineup. But my impression this year is that there are fewer holes in this year's lineup than last year's. Devers and Bogie have helped immensely, of course, but Mookie ain't exactly chopped liver, nor is JDM. Beni is only 50 points below last year's OPS. Vazquez is at least 200 points above last year's. JBJ until the last week, was hitting awfully well. We're missing Moreland/Pearce, but Chavis has been an adequate fill-in--also at 2B. Hernandez has hit well at 2B, as has Holt.

 

My point is that, when Chavez is catching, it's a pretty good lineup with these nine OPS's: .942(Bogie), .975(Devers), .879(Betts), .871(JDM), .770(Beni), .844(Vazquez), .790(Chavez), .711(JBJ), .850(Holt). And I left out Moreland at .859 and Hernandez at .864. The only bad bats still around are Leon, .527, and Travis, .464.

 

Despite Vaz's 300 point lead on Leon, we win more when Leon catches.

[Maxbialystock]

Despite Vaz's 300 point lead on Leon, we win more when Leon catches.

 

I said that first, about 2 weeks ago. At that time I think the Sox were 11-2 when Vazquez did not play.

[jung]

So how do we explain Mookie's OPS being about 200 points higher in 2018 with Beni hitting behind him?

 

These theories fall apart if you actually take the time to dig into the numbers.

 

Clearly Mookie's recent success is not entirely attributable to Rafi hitting behind him. Watch how much this forum crowd howls if Cora dares mess with Mookie, Rafi, X hitting 1,2,3 in the order. I will certainly howl as I loved these three at the top immediately and said so.

[devildavid]

Not sure if anybody has mentioned it yet but it should be painfully obvious that Mookie has benefited mightily from now having Rafi hitting behind him. JD, not so much from Rafi having moved up in the order. Now JD is stuck with who.....Beni???? Give me a break. Even Vaz is not going to really scare pitchers. By season end, everybody that can swing a bat at all will have close to or over 20 HR's on the year. So Vaz isn't scarin' anybody. Cora probably won't often move Chavis behind JD because they are both RH hitters. But even with Chavis limitations he might, MIGHT provide more protection for JD than Vaz can provide and Beni is no protection at all. Could put JBJ behind JD. Oh yea....that will work!....NOT!!!!

 

But why is Devers hitting better?

[devildavid]

Benintendi was hitting much better in 2018...

 

Not as good as Devers is now.

[devildavid]

Mookie is hitting better because he has adjusted somewhat to how he had been pitched to all season. Pitchers are still pitching to him the same and are still trying to get him to chase bad pitches. This can happen and does to any hitter, no matter how accomplished. Until Mookie stops chasing, he will not get as many pitches to hit.